Caroline Bertram

🇪🇺🇮🇳 The EU–India FTA has landed. Two points:

(1) The obligation to effectively implement Paris has been weakened: "effectively" has been dropped.
(2) The dispute settlement process is 100% political: no expert review, no remedies.

All in all, a significant weakening of the trade-climate nexus 🔻

Thank you @wti.bsky.social for inviting me to speak about trade–climate interlinkages in trade agreements. Such great questions from the audience! 👀 💫

COP30 BREAKING NEWS

The presidency has just dropped a new package of texts including the "global mutirão" cover, which makes no mention of fossil fuels or roadmaps

Here's my snap analysis (pic)

unfccc.int/sites/def...

Finally on trade measures, para 58

Opt1 take note of response measures / technical w'shops
Opt2 dialogues at Bonn meetings
Opt3 new info-sharing "platform" on trade measures
Opt4 UNSG summit on trade + annual dialogue + report

🌱 Trade and climate policy shape each other, and no single discipline holds all the answers for how to govern this wisely.

Research bridging economics, law, politics, and STEM is essential—but true interdisciplinarity takes time, trust, and supportive funding structures. How do we bring this about?

The ICJ delivers a landmark opinion, which makes clear that under the #ParisAgreement, NDCs need to:

✅ Become more ambitious over time,
✅ Make an adequate contribution to holding global warming to 1.5°C,
✅ Be implemented by putting in place domestic measures reasonably capable of achieving NDCs ❗

📢 Did you miss it? New publication in Geopolitics! 🔥

This is a piece about perceptions, power, politics, and the messy realities of sustainability governance through trade. It foregrounds the perspectives, concerns and agency of EU trade partners. 🌏

➡️ www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Source: www.2030-panelet.dk/wp-content/u...

Known as a climate frontrunner, the world would need 4.7 planets if everyone lived like Danes. Green image, heavy brown climate footprint 🌍🇩🇰

#ClimateCrisis #PlanetaryBoundaries #OvershootDay #GreenTransition #EUClimatePolicy

4/4 The key question becomes: If the EU cannot reconcile ambitious climate action with prosperity and security, who can?

3/4 If the EU begins to justify climate backsliding on economic and security grounds, it risks undermining global momentum for climate ambition. Given today’s unparalleled level of global conflict — some say the highest since WWII — and the EU’s relatively high global wealth....

2/4 🪖 📈 What’s more concerning is the growing perception that the EU’s competitiveness and security agendas are in conflict with its green ambitions. As a result, the chances of the EU proposing 2035 and 2040 climate targets in line with the 1.5°C Paris Agreement goal seem slim... 🌡️

1/4 ⏰ Despite being nearly three months past the deadline, the EU has still not submitted an updated climate action plan. This does not seem to be a top priority for the current Polish Council Presidency, most likely leaving it to Denmark to get through after the summer.

COP30 & the EU’s role 🌱🇪🇺

⏰ Still no updated EU climate plan; not a priority for the Polish Presidency.

🪖📉 EU’s security & competitiveness is perceived to be clashing with green goals. 1.5°C-aligned 2035/2040 targets? Unlikely.

🌍 If the EU can’t align climate, prosperity & security—who can?

Klimakrise og handelskrig: Derfor bliver 2025 et skæbneår for Parisaftalen Læs mere her.

Klimapolitikken er gledet ned ad den globale dagsorden. Men hvor langt? 2025 vil afsløre, om Parisaftalen stadig har politisk tyngde 🌱

➡️ Læs min analyse i Berlingske i dag om hvorfor, at 2025 er et afgørende år, og hvorfor Trumps handelskrige gør global klimapolitik meget sværere 🇺🇸💰🥊

🔍 What’s inside?
✅ All press releases from the European Commission's press corner, published by the Directorate for Trade (DG Trade)
✅ Compiled in Nvivo with files in PDF for easier coding
✅ Intuitive naming (Commission mandate, date of publication, and topic!) #TradePolicy #EUTrade #EU #OpenAcess

📉🇪🇺 If you’re exploring discursive trends, tracking policy changes/continuities, or just trying to make sense of how EU trade policy has evolved over the last three decades, this dataset could be a game-changer.

🚀 Calling all EU trade researchers and policy enthusiasts!

I’ve just released an updated version of my open access dataset compiling every press release from the European Commission (DG Trade) — now covering 1989 to 2025 (until February 10). Check it out!

➡️ dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtm...

However, the fear remains that the missed deadline reflects a declining willingness to uphold a strong and credible climate framework, raising questions of whether the climate regime may slowly be crumbling... ⏳ 🌱

While the missed deadline is concerning, it’s not the end of the world. Most countries are expected to submit their contributions within the next nine months, leading up to #COP30 in Brazil. 🇧🇷 The fact that 2024 was a major election year globally may partly explain the delays.

The situation is further exacerbated by recent political signals from major players: Trump 🇺🇸 has resumed the process of withdrawing the world’s second-largest emitter from the agreement. Meanwhile, political leaders in Argentina, Russia, and possibly even New Zealand are discussing similar moves 🇦🇷🇷🇺🇳🇿

🖐 The Paris Agreement’s temperature goal of keeping global temperature rise below 2°C and preferably 1.5°C 🌡️ was unanimously adopted a decade ago, but weak #COP climate negotiations in recent years have fueled fears of backsliding.

🌍🔴 Climate delay or backslide?

📄 7 of the world's 10 largest economies missed the deadline yesterday to submit updated climate action plans (NDCs) under the #Parisagreement. Weak #COP climate talks and a challenging political landscape (🇺🇸 🇦🇷🇷🇺) are putting the ambitions of the Paris deal to the test

🌏 🌡️ 🇳🇿 Yesterday, a New Zealand coalition partner (ACT) floated the idea of New Zealand withdrawing from the Paris Agreement.🌱 This would not be inconsequential. Under the EU-New Zealand FTA, either party can suspend the trade deal in case the other withdraws from the Paris Agreement 🇪🇺 ⚖️🙅 🇳🇿

POLITICAL ECONOMY OF FINANCE SUMMER SCHOOL AT THE WATSON INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL & PUBLIC AFFAIRS FORMAT June 5th to 7th Open to PhD candidates and early career scholars Travel and accommodation covered for all participants JUNE 5TH TO 7TH, 2025

INSTRUCTORS: Milan Babic Cornel Ban Benjamin Braun Madison Condon Kevin Gallagher Charlotte Robertson Tim Sahay Mark Schwartz Gregor Semieniuk Chloe Thurston Yingyao Wang TOPICS INCLUDE: Dollar Hegemony Debt & Debt Relief in the U.S. History of Financing Regimes Institutional Capital Pools Debt & Finance in the Global South Rise of State Capital Global Finance in the New Cold War Finance & Decarbonization Insurance & Climate Change State Capital & Green Finance in China

🚨📣 We are so back:

ℙ𝕠𝕝𝕚𝕥𝕚𝕔𝕒𝕝 𝕖𝕔𝕠𝕟𝕠𝕞𝕪 𝕠𝕗 𝕗𝕚𝕟𝕒𝕟𝕔𝕖 𝕤𝕦𝕞𝕞𝕖𝕣 𝕤𝕔𝕙𝕠𝕠𝕝 𝟚.𝟘

- 3 days @ Watson Institute, Providence
- PhD candidates (2nd year+), post-docs & assistant profs
- All expenses covered (🙏 sponsors)
- A-team of instructors 🙏💪
- Mark Blyth 😎

Apply by 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡 𝟏. Link below. Please share!

Great read!

Can EU trade agreements bolster climate action?

@carolinebertram.bsky.social & @herminevc.bsky.social examine how commitments to effectively implement the Paris Agreement raise costs, strengthen duties and foster ambition.

Will dispute settlement mechanisms deliver?

Thank you Ben - I hope everything is going well in Edinburgh!

And my amazing co-authors @herminevc.bsky.social, Ana Carolina Campera and Simon Happersberger 🌱

Thank you @anderswivel.bsky.social, Jens Ladefoged, @jeanfrancoismartin.bsky.social, @benrosamond1.bsky.social, Marlene Wind, Michele Betsill, Jan Orbie, @ferdideville.bsky.social, @camillenessel.bsky.social, Johan Eliasson, Axel Marx, Fariborz Zelli, Evgeny Postnikov, Alasdair Young, and many more!