As the cool anomalies continue to get pinched off over the central equatorial #Pacific, the SST anomalies & outgoing longwave radiation anomalies are resembling a #LaNina Modoki. #ElNino conditions should rapidly develop in the coming months.
A broad low south-southwest of #Guam can organize into a depression over the next few days as it drifts NNE. Regardless, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds expected in Guam & the Northern Mariana Islands this weekend into early next week.
A few light rain & snow showers will continue in northern #Afghanistan, northern #Pakistan & northwest #India into Saturday. A more robust western disturbance can bring additional rain & mountain snow across these areas into #Nepal Monday into Thursday.
Another splitting trough will bring additional rain and mountain snow to #Spain and #Portugal early next week. This trough should not dig far enough south to pull Saharan dust north into #Europe.
#Saharan dust has reached northeast #France, #Belgium, parts of the #Netherlands & portions of far eastern #Germany. Some dust will linger over these areas into Saturday.
Tropical low 29U is near the coast of #Queensland at Innisfail & will weaken, but will bring areas of heavy rain & flooding to northeast Queensland through Sunday, local time.
The Pacific Meridional Mode went strongly positive in December & is expected to remain positive through at least summer. A strong +PMM in boreal spring tends to favor a +IOD in boreal autumn. The PMM & SPMM both being positive is a good signal for #ElNino later this year.
Conditions can become conducive for a tropical low to form near #Guam this weekend with a small chance to become a depression early next week. The slow-movement of any low will lead to rounds of heavy rain across the Northern Mariana Islands & Guam Saturday into early next week.
A western disturbance near the Caspian Sea will produce light rain & snow showers to northern #Afghanistan, northern #Pakistan & northwest #India Thursday night into Saturday. Another WD can bring more rain & snow to these areas early next week.
#Saharan dust has reached the southern #UK. Pockets of blood rain or red rain are possible in #Spain & southern & western #France. Dust will linger over the southern UK, northern France & the #Benelux region Friday into Saturday.
TL 28U and 30U are starting to rotate around each other off #WesternAustralia. TL 29U will reach northeast #Queensland Thursday night or Friday morning with heavy rain & flooding in northern Queensland into the weekend. Another low continues to bring heavy rain to the #TopEnd.
A digging trough will bring the potential for areas of blowing sand and dust across portions of #SaudiArabia, #Kuwait, #Iraq, #Bahrain & western #Iran Friday through Sunday.
A trough digging toward the Caspian Sea will lead to light rain & snow showers in N #Afghanistan, N #Pakistan & NW #India Thursday into Saturday. A more robust western disturbance will result in additional rain & snow in these areas next week.
Saharan dust has reached portions of #France and is expected to reach the southern #UK on Thursday. Some dust into the #Benelux region for Friday. Pockets of blood rain or red rain possible in #Spain Wednesday, then France & perhaps the southwest UK Thursday.
Multiple tropical lows around #Australia. The two off northwest Australia will Fujiwhara late this week. Land interaction will limit the intensity of the low in the Gulf of Carpentaria. The Coral Sea low can strengthen before reaching #Queensland Friday.
Cool pool in the central equatorial #Pacific continues to contract as #LaNina weakens. The Southern Oscillation Index remains above the La Nina threshold of +7 but is mostly owing to the active monsoon & transient tropical systems keeping air pressure anomalously low at #Darwin.
Blood rain or red rain explained. The phenomenon is a natural event that happens when rain mixes with red dust from deserts. This interesting mixture leads to rain that appears red. #India & portions of #Europe often experience this fascinating occurrence.
Potential for tropical development in the southeast Philippine Sea late this week or weekend. Any tropical system is expected to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to #Guam & the Northern Mariana Islands this weekend into early next week.
Saharan Dust will spread from #Spain, #Portugal, #Balearic Islands, #Corsica & #Sardinia across #France to the southern #UK Tuesday to Thursday. Risk of red rain or blood rain in Spain into Wednesday, then as far north as France & the UK on Thursday.
The trough leading to showers from central #SaudiArabia & #Qatar to #Afghanistan will bring rain & mountain snow to northern #Pakistan & NW #India Wednesday into Sunday. Another WD will produce more rain/snow in N Afghanistan, N Pakistan & NW India early next week.
Active around #Australia with 90S & 93S possibly doing the Fujiwhara dance off NW Australia. Land interaction can limit the intensity of 92P. 91P will strengthen before impacting #Queensland with heavy rain & strong winds Friday & this weekend.
Four tropical lows around #Australia. The low near #Christmas Island will back eastward and may interact with the low near the #Kimberley coast of #WesternAustralia later this week.
A belated welcome to meteorological spring for those in the Northern Hemisphere and meteorological autumn in the Southern Hemisphere. The vernal equinox will occur on 20 March.
Conditions are expected to become conducive for a tropical low to form in the Philippine Sea Friday or this weekend, then may strengthen early next week. The flow next week will steer any low northeastward with possible impacts in #Guam & the Northern Mariana Islands.
A trough digging into Morocco will result in increasing amounts of Saharan dust in portions of #Spain & the #Balearic Islands over the next couple of days. Dust can impact parts of #France Wednesday & Thursday, then can reach the southern #UK Thursday.
A slow-moving trough will continue to produce scattered rain & mountain snow over S & E #Iran & #Afghanistan into Wednesday. Showers & thunder in central #SaudiArabia & #Qatar Tuesday & Wednesday. This trough can bring rain/snow to N #Pakistan & NW #India Thursday into Sunday.
A splitting trough will bring some rain to #Portugal & western #Spain Monday, then #Morocco & the Canary Islands Monday night into Wednesday. This low will lift NE & can bring rain, some heavy, to southern & eastern Spain Wednesday into Thursday.
Active across northern #Australia this week with the risk for tropical development in the Coral Sea, Gulf of Carpentaria & off the #Kimberley coast of #WesternAustralia later this week. Tropical rains can reach as far south as the #Brisbane area this weekend.
A pair of slow-moving troughs will produce rounds of rain & mountain snow from eastern #Turkey, #Syria & #Lebanon to #Iraq, #Iran & #Afghanistan through midweek with showers to central #SaudiArabia. Rain & snow can reach N #Pakistan & NW #India late in the week or weekend.
Watching for tropical development around the Cape York Peninsula & off the #Kimberley coast of #WesternAustralia next week. Also, keep an eye on the southern Philippine Sea for a tropical low to form late next week. Small chance of a depression.
