#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by 2bp-4bp with oil over $86. 2Y touched YTD high 3.629% (YTD low reached Monday was 3.359%). 5Y testing 200-day average near 3.77%. Ahead next week: $58b 3Y new issue Tues, $39b 10Y & $22b 30Y (1st reopenings) Weds & Thurs.
US 2Y yield reaching YTD low & high in the same week wasn't on my Bingo card.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by 1bp-3bp, rising for 4th straight day with oil gaining. 5Y-30Y reached weekly highs. Next week's auction sizes TBA at 11am: $58b 3Y, $39b 10Y, $22b 30Y projected. Buyback of up to $2b in 10Y-20Y sector closes at 2pm.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by less than 2bp inside Tuesday's ranges, which included highest 2Y (3.59%) since Jan. 28. Main US oil futures contract has mostly erased an advance to about $77 (Tuesday's high was near $78). Buyback of up to $4b in 3Y-5Y sector closes at 2pm.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by 4bp-8bp, extending rebound from early-Monday YTD lows with oil up more than 7% at highest level since June. 2Y rose as much as 12bp to 3.59%, approaching YTD high, as inflation threat curbs Fed rate-cut expectations.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by 3bp-5bp after rebounding from session lows including lowest 2Y since 2022, 5Y since 2024, 10Y since April, 30Y since October. $199b coupon settlement ($59b net). Feb index return 1.82%, YTD 1.72%. Auctions resume March 10.
From my alter-ego today
#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower by 1bp-3bp with 10Y 3.98%, under 4% for first day since November & stock futures red. Month-end index rebalancing at 4pm to extend its duration by an estimated 0.10 year. No coupon auctions next week; next is 3Y on March 10.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields little changed. $44b 7Y note auction at 1pm (last coupon sale until March 10) has WI yield near 3.83%, lower than last two monthly results. Ahead Friday, month-end rebalancing to extend index duration by estimated 0.10 year.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by 2bp-3bp inside this week's ranges. New 2Y 3.477% vs Tuesday's 3.455% auction result. $70b 5Y auction at 1pm has WI yield near 3.62%, lower than last two monthly results. Buyback of up to $750m of 1Y-10Y TIPS closes at 2pm.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields narrowly mixed inside Monday's rally ranges, which included lowest 5Y & 10Y since Jan. 20. Curve flatter. For $69b 2Y auction at 1pm, WI yield near 3.45% is lower than results since 2022. Buyback of up to $2b in 20Y-30Y sector closes at 2pm.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields little changed inside last week's selloff ranges (from YTD lows reached Feb. 17). Auctions ahead this week: $69b 2Y Tuesday, $70b 5Y Wednesday, $44b 7Y Thursday (all for March 2 settlement). Friday's month-end index rebalancing impact TBD.
From my alter-ego this week
#TreasuriesToday: Yields little changed after erasing increases of 1bp-2bp, with WTI crude oil in retreat from highest since August. March options expire. Auctions ahead next week: $69b 2Y Tuesday, $70b 5Y Wednesday, $44b 7Y Thursday (all for March 2 settlement).
#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by less than 2bp, still inside Friday's rally ranges. $9b 30Y TIPS new-issue auction at 1pm seen about 1.4bp rich vs spot. Buyback of up to $4b in 5Y-7Y sector closes at 2pm. Next week's auction sizes at 11am: $69b 2Y, $70b 5Y, $44b 7Y projected.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by less than 2bp, extending rebound from Tuesday's YTD lows, with curve flatter. $16b 20Y new-issue auction at 1pm has WI yield near 4.64%, lower than last three monthly results. $9b 30Y TIPS new issue ahead Thursday.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower by as much as 2.5bp (30Y), off session lows including lowest 2Y since Oct. 17, 5Y-30Y since Nov. 28. $125b coupon settlement ($34.7b net). Auctions ahead this week: $16b 20Y new issue Weds, $9b 30Y TIPS new issue Thurs.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields little changed, 5Y-30Y near YTD lows reached in past 24 hours on risk-aversion. This week's auctions are in the money, new 30Y near 4.735% vs 4.75% auction yield. Ahead next week: $16b 20Y new issue Wednesday, $9b 30Y TIPS new issue Thursday.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower by 1bp-2bp inside Wednesday's ranges, which included YTD lows for 10Y & 30Y before the selloff. New 10Y 4.16% vs 4.177% auction stop. $25b 30Y new-issue sale at 1pm has WI yield near 4.79%, between last two results.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields narrowly mixed, mostly lower by as much as 1bp. Ahead of Jan jobs report, swaps price in ~60bp of Fed easing by year end, 1 move by mid-year. $42b 10Y new-issue auction at 1pm has WI yield near 4.15%, lower than last two results.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower by 1bp-4bp with curve flatter. Quarterly refunding auctions begin with $58b 3Y at 1pm. WI yield near 3.55% is lower than 3Y auction results since September. Buyback of up to $2b in 10Y-20Y sector closes at 2pm.
Whatever the reason, those bonds trade with a yield of about 4.12%. A market-wide increase in yields before the auction that raised the probability of an unscheduled reopening should erode that scarcity value. /END
As for the existing 30Y bonds, the expectation is they'd lose scarcity value. It may be that because they were the first ones in five years, pent-up demand caused a chunk of the issue to go into escrow accounts, driving up the value of the rest. 10/
An issue of that size is unlikely ever to command "special" rates in repo, meaning that the cost of financing a long position would stay near the general rate and not go lower. 9/
First, the total size of the issue would increase. It's scheduled to be $120b ($45b new issue plus two $39b reopenings in March and April). Merging it with the old 30Y would add $26b, and the Fed is expected to take an additional $12b to replace its maturing Treasuries. 8/
