John Horvick

Source
data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php...

Source
data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php...

This chart compares the difference in consumer sentiment of Democrats to independents (blue) and Republicans to independents (red).

Above 0 = more positive, below 0 = more negative

Independents are more negative than Republicans in their views than at any time in the last decade.

Updated consumer sentiment numbers out today from the University of Michigan. Here are the monthly changes.

Democrat 37.9 (-3.9)
Independent 50.2 (-0.8)
Republican 97.7 (+0.6)

Sure. And I am too! It is just notable the difference in who the Republicans have nominated for governor vs. senate, where the last two times Jo Rae Perkins was the nominee.

-Dennis Richardson (2014), the clearest example of a true conservative. But also the last Rep to win a statewide race.
-Chris Dudley (2010), hardly a hard core conservative and ran the closest gov race in decades
-Ron Saxton (2006), a business moderate who served on the Portland Public School board

Sure there are examples of this for other offices, but not so much for governor. Recent Republican nominees.

-Christine Drazan (2022), who you describe as a "moderate"
-Knute Buhler (2018), who is pro-choice and has left the Rep Party
-Bud Pierce (2016), who called for moderation in the Rep Party

This compares the total number of registered voters in Oregon to the number of votes cast in Democratic and Republican primary elections for governor.

Despite a large increase in registered voters, the number voting in these primaries is basically flat.

Gender of primary election candidates for the Oregon House of Representatives.

Updated now that the filing deadline has passed.

The history of Oregon House of Representatives elections in which the out-party won, i.e., the party with a registration disadvantage

Of the 3 seats won by Reps in 2024
-HD52 open with no incumbent
-HD32 Rep who won is now running as a Dem
-HD21 no Dem filed for the primary

The filing deadline has now passed.

There are 25 candidates for Oregon governor, 10 Democrats and 15 Republicans.

The filing deadline has now passed.

There are 4 districts with no Democrats and 6 districts with no Republicans.

There are 39 districts with one Democrat and 42 districts with one Republican.

Oregon's filing deadline has now passed.

There are 76 Democratic and 72 Republican candidates for the primary election.

Measure 105: Repeals law limiting use of state/local law enforcement resources to enforce federal immigration laws (2018)

My updated estimate on the percentage of Oregon students in 9th to 12th grade who participate in school sports.

A look at where votes come from in the Republican gubernatorial primary.

This shows the share of votes in Oregon counties for the 2022 Republican primary.

- 47% came from counties that voted for Kotek (2022) or Kotek+Harris (2024).

- 53% came from Trump counties (2024)

Religion How important would you say religion is in your own life -- very important, fairly important, or not very important? At the present time, do you think religion as a whole is increasing its influence o...

Source
news.gallup.com/poll/1690/Re...

6) Level of satisfaction with the influence of organized religion in American life

5) At the present time, do you think religion as a whole is increasing its influence on American life or losing influence?

4) How important would you say religion is in your life?

3) Do you happen to be a member of a church, synagogue, mosque or temple?

2) How often do you attend church or synagogue?

This week, Gallup released updated trends on religion in the United States. A thread on the key questions.

1) What is your religious preference?

With the deadline nearing, more people are filing for the Oregon House of Representatives primary election.

There are now 59 Democratic candidates and 55 Republican candidates.

With the deadline nearing, more people are filing for the Oregon House of Representatives primary election.

There are now 14 districts with no Democrats and 20 districts with no Republicans.

Oregon Secretary of State The Oregon Secretary of State works to maximize voter participation, is a watchdog for public spending, makes it easier to do business in Oregon, and preserves and promotes Oregon history.

Source
sos.oregon.gov/elections/Pa...

There are updated voter registration totals for Oregon today. Here are the monthly changes.

Total +6,981
Non-affilated +5,722
Republican +657
Ind. Party of Oregon +258
Democrat +196
Other +148

Voters ages 65+ are likely to be a majority of the Oregon Republican primary electorate this year.

This assumes a turnout of the average of the 2018/2022 primaries.

Voters ages 65+ are likely to be a majority of the Oregon Republican primary electorate this year.

This assumes a turnout of the average of the 2018/2022 primaries.

As of today, 22 gubernatorial candidates have filed for Oregon's May primary election. There are now 8 Democrats and 14 Republicans.