Chad has closed its border with Sudan amid repeated incursions by the RSF, which Déby has been accused of backing - claims he denies. For this week's @thecontinent.org, I highlight what this means for his legitimacy, the cohesion of the military and political elite and the humanitarian catastrophe.
Islamic State claimed attacking Niger's main airport, its first complex incursion on a Sahel capital since establishing presence in 2015. Niger accused its neighbours and France, while thanking Russia for reinforcing its army's counter-attack. More from me here: www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w...
Central African Republic held general elections amid elevated political stability and unrest risks. I spoke to DW about the presidential frontrunners and how Touadéra has overseen constitutional changes and peace deals with rebels to legitimise his third term bid www.youtube.com/watch?v=5TBC...
In the Guinea Bissau piece, I mentioned ECOWAS’ silence when its members hack away at democratic and civic rights. That’s been the case as well with Benin. Discussed this with @beverlyochieng.bsky.social www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQDN...
🎧 Ascolta il nuovo episodio di World in 30 Minutes!
Mark Leonard, @willbrownecfr.bsky.social e @beverlyochieng.bsky.social discutono cosa significhi per l’Europa la crescente influenza della Russia nel Sahel.👇
🎧 In this week's podcast, Mark Leonard welcomes @willbrownecfr.bsky.social and @beverlyochieng.bsky.social to discuss what Russia’s growing influence in the Sahel means for Europe @ecfrafrica.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/4qQw0Ye
Côte d'Ivoire's 25 Oct presidential poll will test the legitimacy of its institutions and its credentials as an oasis of commercial stability. A few thoughts in @economist.com on how diminished competition tilts the outcome in favour of Ouattara's fourth term bid www.economist.com/middle-east-...
On Lawfare Daily, @katiebelarus.bsky.social spoke to @beverlyochieng.bsky.social about how external powers compete for influence in Africa, the shifting priorities of the second Trump administration, the rising influence of Turkey, the UAE, and the EU, and how African states are responding.
Mali has (finally) confirmed arrests in the army linked to a coup plot. Spoke to BBC about pronounced tensions in the military leadership that threaten Gen Goïta's hold on power as he embarks on an indefinite term, and the restrictive political and security environment www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p...
Niger has nationalised its only industrial gold mine, a measure likely to take precedent when the military rulers perceive that commercial operators are not meeting contractual obligations or project timelines. More from me on @firstpost.bsky.social youtu.be/Zy29_ZyjFmk?...
Cameroon opposition leader Kamto has rejected his exclusion from the 12 October presidential election, leaving incumbent Biya the clear frontrunner for an eighth term.
Spoke to @cnbc.com Africa about election scenarios, Biya's health and political tensions www.cnbcafrica.com/media/775465...
Ouattara's fourth term bid maintains broad political stability in Côte d'Ivoire while highlighting the RHDP's fragile succession plan, likely to be a priority as the October presidential election is his to lose. Spoke to @theafricareport.bsky.social on this www.theafricareport.com/389141/cote-...
To no one's surprise, Alassane Ouattara will seek a fourth consecutive presidential term in Côte d'Ivoire with a diminished pool of opponents. In Cameroon, Central African Republic and Tanzania, weak oppositions are benefiting incumbents to retain power. Some thoughts here apnews.com/article/afri...
French forces have left Senegal. But in select countries - and newer partners like Kenya, Nigeria - bilateral ventures will continue. Meanwhile, West African gov'ts will maintain strategic defence ties to build the resilience of their militaries in the face of militancy youtu.be/ZlYMzMUILUM?...
Thanks @beverlyochieng.bsky.social and Alex Vines from @africaprog.bsky.social (Chatham House Africa Programme) for their time and sharing their expertise for this piece 🙏
My first feature article for BBC online is about how "blood gold" is fuelling conflict in West Africa's #Sahel region
A short 🧵on some key takeaways:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Why Burkina Faso's junta leader Traoré has captured hearts and minds
www.bbc.com/news/article...
"His messages reflect.. when many Africans are questioning the relationship with the West, and why there is still so much poverty in such a resource-rich continent" says @beverlyochieng.bsky.social
As Burkina Faso's Traoré visited Russia and told RT that the army has gained control against militants, JNIM fighters reportedly briefly seized control of several security posts, killed an unknown number of forces in a campaign aimed at intensifying territorial reach to undermine the military gov't.
Press in Senegal as Jeune Afrique is accused of manipulating a Tumbuktu Institute report on Sahel's militant threat to the east, Gabon as Oligui ends Bongo's dynasty (while Togo's Gnassingbe extends 58 years of family rule), Mali after anti-junta demos, and Benin after its deadliest militant raid
Mali's opposition parties plan to mobilise against a cabinet resolution to dissolve political parties and elevate Gen Goïta - in power since 2020 - to president for a five-year renewable term. I analyse risks for political stability, decision-making, regional alignments
www.bbc.com/swahili/bbc_...
Mali looking to dissolve political parties, ban elections calls and keep Gen Goïta for 5 more years; Niger petrol stations under surveillance as militants threaten Niamey and Russia to mediate the Algeria-AES spat; and Chad finalises a peace deal with the Miski self-defence group to access minerals.
Benin's deadliest militant attack underscores the growing instability in the Sahel, confirms JNIM's intent to exert influence in the north and puts pressure on the gov't to be forthcoming and transparent about the insurgency.
Some thoughts on @afpfr.bsky.social www.barrons.com/news/benin-t...
Burkina Faso claims Côte d'Ivoire is behind the latest attempt to remove Traoré from power. Spoke to BBC Swahili about strained relations between the two countries and Traoré's popularity cast against military setbacks and a fragile political environment:
www.bbc.com/swahili/bbc_...
This would be the deadliest attack on Benin where JNIM says it plans to increase influence and presence. In Jan, it claimed to have killed more than 30 soldiers in Point Triple that borders Burkina Faso and Niger whose mistrust in Benin has limited joint counterinsurgency cooperation.
The press in Gabon as Oligui moves from junta head to president, Mali where nationwide anti-Algeria demos morph into calls for Goïta to remain in power for 5 more years, while Russia "chooses silence" on the drone incident, and Burkina Faso on geopolitics at the Anatalya forum.
Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema wins 90% of votes in Gabon's presidential election, according to provisional results from the interior ministry, a decisive victory that (symbolically) ends the Bongo family reign and military rule.
For the first time in over five decades, the name "Bongo" will not be on the ballot in Gabon where elections to end military rule will be taking place on Saturday.
Some thoughts from me on why Oligui is projected to have a decisive victory:
www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/ga...
Foreign ministers from the Alliance of Sahel States have been in Russia, which intends to remain a strategic partner in the coalition's quest for recognition and sovereignty. Niger's FM spoke to RT on this and the push to eventually stop using the CFA franc
francais.rt.com/magazines/la...
