Las Vegas: “Slower sales, lower prices and rising inventory” in February
Pacific Northwest: “The lower interest rates have not yet led to increased sales on a year-over-year basis, with the number of transactions declining 3% and prices down relative to February 2025. Listings up 28% YoY”
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/1st-look-a...
Used vehicle prices moving up (more inflation).
www.coxautoinc.com/insights/man...
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 212.3, reflecting a 4% increase for wholesale used-vehicle prices (adjusted for mix, mileage, and seasonality) compared to February 2025.
Retail Sales: "Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $733.5 billion, down 0.2 percent from the previous month"
Weak, but at expectations.
"Total nonfarm payroll employment edged down by 92,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.4 percent"
Employment only up 156 thousand year-over-year.
Yes. SoCal
Local gas station
Goldman employment forecast: "We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 45k in February ... [and] that the unemployment rate edged up to 4.4%"
www.mortgagenewsdaily.com
Lawler: Update on MBS Yields and Spreads
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-upd...
"In the week ending February 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 213,000, unchanged from
the previous week's revised level."
Slightly lower than consensus expectations.
Asking Rents Continue to Decline Year-over-year
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/asking-ren...
February Heavy Truck Sales down 17% YoY. OUCH
February Light Vehicle Sales: 15.75 million SAAR, down 1.4% YoY. This above the consensus forecast
MBA: "The seasonally adjusted Purchase
Index increased 6.1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 8.9 percent
compared with the previous week and was 10 percent higher than the same week one year ago."
Goldman: “We are raising our Q2 average oil price forecast for Brent to $76/bb … we assume 5 additional days of very low Strait of Hormuz exports followed by a gradual recovery over 28 days … if Hormuz volumes were to remain flat for 5 additional weeks, Brent prices would likely reach $100”
Cotality: “U.S. single-family home prices increased by 0.74% year over year in January 2026 compared with January 2025. On a month-over-month basis, home prices fell 0.1% from December 2025”
Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/q4-update-...
Tariffs are “having the exact opposite effect of their intention ..”
(via Vital Knowledge) #ISM
ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 52.4%
February 2026 ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report www.ismworld.org/supply-manag...
This decrease was close to consensus expectations. Employment is still weak "The Employment Index registered 48.8 percent, up 0.7 percentage point from January’s figure of 48.1 percent."
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January
Altos: Active single-family inventory was down 1.4% week-over-week
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/final-look...
Thanks! It has hard to believe it has been that long!
Ok. I call the list the "largest price declines" next month, and let observers decide if it it best or worst.
Yes, depends on the observer!
Here are the 30 worst performing cities ...
Freddie Mac House Price Index Decreased in January; Up only 0.4% Year-over-year
Punta Gorda House Prices Down 22% from Recent Peak, Austin Down 18%
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-ma...
