Tobias Bunde

The German media also seems to go with "fortgeschrittene Abschreckung", which means "advanced" rather than "forward deterrence." We'll see whether this sticks here.

French President Emmanuel Macron has just given a truly remarkable speech on France's nuclear policy at a moment of great anxiety in Europe. I wanted to offer an early comment. Welcome to the age of 'Dissuasion Avancée' in Europe.

New post: panda.substack.com/p/dissuasion...

But none of this was in the cards, was it? The French red lines have been quite consistent... Therefore, I'm with you - the speech represents a welcome step forward, not least when it comes to the new steering group with Germany (and, potentially, other allies). Not an NPG, but still...

The history of the non-recognition of their annexation also has implications for us today I would argue. It matters how we refer to Crimea or other regions illegally annexed. Even if it may take decades and even if it may seem futile, it matters how we speak about them.

Quite rare to see a chart that says quite so overtly that no one involved has the slightest clue what’s happening here

Suprematism, by Nikolai Suetin, 1920-21, 📸 by @tiltoncreative

Das mag so ausgesehen haben. Ich habe mich auch sehr über die stehenden Ovationen gewundert. Aber das ist ganz sicher nicht die generelle Stimmung hier in München.

Europa und USA: Unterschiedliche Vorstellungen vom "Westen" Während die Europäer "den Westen" als Gemeinschaft liberaler Demokratien verstehen, hätte US-Außenminister Rubio eher eine gemeinsame Kultur betont, sagt Sicherheitsexperte Tobias Bunde.

Bei @zdfde.bsky.social heute live habe ich heute morgen ein paar Fragen zur #msc2026 beantwortet. Der Graben verläuft nicht zwischen den USA und Europa, sondern quer durch unsere Gesellschaften. www.zdfheute.de/video/zdfheu... (Und, ja, man sieht nach den Tagen hier nicht nur müde aus…)

Möglicherweise gefährlicher als die Vance-Rede.

Stimmung insgesamt gemischt, würde ich sagen. Viele scheinen noch nach jedem Strohhalm greifen zu wollen. Aber insgesamt ist der Grönland-Schock überall spürbar. Es ist etwas kaputtgegangen, dass nicht durch ein paar nette Worte gekittet werden kann.

Nein, viele sehr verwundert, dass es stehende Ovationen gab. Aber ich glaube, viele haben die Rede nicht ganz verstanden. Sie war aus meiner Sicht das Gegenteil von „reassuring“.

Finally some straight talk about the biggest elephant in the room. @slotkin.senate.gov emphasizes: „We‘re in a struggle for our democracy. I‘m very concerned about the 2026 elections.“ References the very concerning comments by Trump and others.

Yes, indeed. Seems many people overlooked that when listening to Rubio. We have a session on this very question on the agenda tonight. If I may add, this is not a new phenomenon. See Munich Security Report 2020.

Hi Steve! Have to find Dan here, too!

And thank you, Jintro!

Nukleare Abschreckung: Europa droht eine Abschreckungslücke Ein neues nukleares Zeitalter hat eingesetzt, alte Gewissheiten europäischer Sicherheit gelten nicht mehr. Doch viele Politiker verhalten sich, als wäre nichts geschehen.

In ihrem Gastbeitrag in der @zeit.de warnen die Co-Vorsitzenden der European Nuclear Study Group @claudmajor.bsky.social, James D. Davis und MSC Director of Research & Policy @tobiasbunde.bsky.social vor einer nuklearen Abschreckungslücke in Europa.

Hier geht's zum Artikel ⬇️

Very glad you were part of this effort, Liviu! Thanks for your commitment!

We will discuss the report at #MSC2026. For those who read German: Paul-Anton Krüger has written a very good summary of the report for "Der Spiegel". www.spiegel.de/politik/deut...

Cover of the report of the European Nuclear Study Group - title: "Managing the Deterrence Gap: Assessing Europe's Nuclear Options." The report is part of a joint project of the Munich Security Conference, the Centre for International Security at the Hertie School, and the Institute of Political Science at the University of St. Gallen.

The report of our European Nuclear Study Group, co-chaired by James W. Davis, Claudia Major and me, is online now: securityconference.org/en/publicati... Our co-authors: Janina Dill, Héloïse Fayet, Liviu Horovitz, Łukasz Kulesa, Andreas Lutsch, Michal Onderco, Jintro Pauly, Julian Wucherpfennig.

Zeitenwende as a foreign policy identity crisis: Germany and the travails of adaptation after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Tobias Bunde, 2025 While Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine represented a shock to countries across Europe, it was perceived as a particularly fundamental challenge in German...

📝 Don't miss one of our most read #openaccess #BJPIR articles!

'Zeitenwende as a foreign policy identity crisis: Germany and the travails of adaptation after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine' by @tobiasbunde.bsky.social.

🔗 buff.ly/Bl9vSLm

@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social

A bird's-eye view of a former Auschwitz II-Birkenau camp showing a wide dirt pathway flanked by parallel rows of barbed-wire fences. Groups of visitors walk along the path, surrounded by the remnants of brick structures and barracks, now reduced to foundations. Green grass contrasts with the somber history of the site, as the path leads toward a guard tower in the distance.

Auschwitz was at the end of a process. We must remember that it did not start from gas chambers.

This hatred gradually developed: from ideas, words, stereotypes & prejudice through legal exclusion, dehumanization & escalating violence... to systematic and industrial murder.

Auschwitz took time.

Exactly, and those who are most alarmed/angry/worried today are long-time transatlanticists, NATOniks or whatever you want to call them, not those who have always preferred European independence.

Opinion | John Kerry: We’ll Miss Alliances When They’re Gone

"We must stand up for a world that needs a renewed multilateral moment. Otherwise we will by default accept a world in which our friends move on as best they can without us. America alone is not America first." John Kerry in @nytopinion.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2026/01/25/o...

All you need to know...

Oh, absolutely!

Laughter in the audience... Some people just couldn't suppress it.

The feeling is mutual. We don‘t recognize the United States anymore. And it breaks my heart. Greetings from Europe!

This line graph illustrates the percentage change in agency staff levels from the previous year for nine major U.S. federal scientific and health organizations between the fiscal years 2016 and 2025. The agencies tracked include the CDC, Department of Energy, EPA, FDA, NASA, NIH, NIST, NOAA, and NSF. For the majority of the timeline between 2016 and 2023, the agencies show relatively stable fluctuations, generally staying within a range of +5% to -5% change per year. However, there is a dramatic and uniform plummet starting in the 2024–25 period. Every agency depicted shows a sharp downward trajectory, with staffing losses ranging from approximately -15% to over -25%. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) shows the most significant decline, dropping to roughly -26%, while the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) shows the least severe but still substantial drop at approximately -15%.

This is the most astonishing graph of what the Trump regime has done to US science. They have destroyed the federal science workforce across the board. The negative impacts on Americans will be felt for generations, and the US might never be the same again.

www.nature.com/immersive/d4...

Dabei hängt das eine mit dem anderen untrennbar zusammen. Würde die amerikanische Demokratie noch „funktionieren“, gäbe es diesen Irrsinn nicht bzw. würde man ihm Einhalt gebieten. Es ist die Außenpolitik eines „personalist regime“.

Read the full transcript of Carney’s speech to World Economic Forum - National | Globalnews.ca Prime Minister Mark Carney gave a forceful speech in Davos, Switzerland, on the 'new world order' and how middle powers like Canada can benefit by working together.

This speech should be read (or listened to) by everyone in Europe - and beyond. For Europeans, it's a must. So many great quotes, hard to pick one. Well done, @mark-carney.bsky.social.
globalnews.ca/news/1162087...