Micah Warren

The who? They did a journalism?

You're describing the exact argument given for why Bitcoin will go to $150,000,000.

But with Trump, the things that happen show that we're in new territory where the old probabilities don't hold. It's fair to ask "what stops this" when the things that used to stop that aren't in place any more.

I would really like to know if this is like 0.5% or 5%. I'm convinced it's nontrivial. Probably most of us are here because some ancestor decided not to disagree with a bully.

I definitely lean towards a readerism vs posterism.

Evidence that the block is way too heavily used here: you see someone say something completely stupid, something that can be debunked in like five words, all 50 replies are in agreement...

Then you realize, no, you're not insane. Everyone who did or would have pushed back is blocked.

My pet theory is still that this sort of fear bait is not as productive as the left might think; low information, low involvement middle voters might just dissonance themselves into supporting and voting for Trump because we're all safer not giving him a reason to destroy everything.

Oh, but we need our own Curtis Yarvin

This is the post-RBO meta

This is what I hate about everything right now.

Everything is going to be worse, but more efficient.

Yeah, you can probably do 80% (by volume) of "journalism" from a laptop but that other 20% is really fucking important

1) lol dying
2) how was Molly posting about this a month ago and everybody in crypto just figured it out in the last 24 hours

One plus of prediction markets is that they tell you which administrations have ass for OPSEC

People do not understand the cartoonish dystopia these guys are pursuing. They're investing in every industry.

Bluesky: yeah like we said he's literally Hitler

and here we go

How do I arbitrage this

This is a good use for agentic AI

Wrong

Markuts

Steyer woefully behind in his Kalshi game

And here we are.

Billionaires can drop a few bucks on Kalshi and

Bam!

You're the front runner!

The thing that frightens me most about AI in the near term is the number of stupid people who are going to gird themselves with agentic AI and do massively overreachy stupid things. Once agentic hits mainstream, there's going to be a singularity of just pure stupid. Mass chaos.

Fascinating - not sure if this is the same, but I have of conversations that go like

Me: "the kids have SATs coming up, right?"

Wife: "yes this Saturday can you drive them to Salem?"

Me, two minutes later: "we got some snow; are the boys planning to go skiing Saturday morning?"

Wife: ?? !!

I'd love to see their faces at the after party

Rookie numbers have you seen Nakamoto? They even have cash flow.

Next, you're gonna tell me that that anti spyware pop-up that I let install itself on my computer is secretly spyware.

To be fair, chokepoint was not imagined, authorities openly made a decision to do "regulation by engagement" a completely reasonable way to deal with an industry full of rapidly morphing shit.

The key insight Nic had was that the government openly doing their job was actually a conspiracy

Cool now billionaires can now hand select candidates

Thank, um Peter Thiel? Idk thank the deity that created the Polymarket for is Jesus coming back

You could save money on editing by just having people predict what the next article is gonna be and then you know let the market decide

lol of course such an interaction happened. I'm also imagining he tried to mog you with some really amazing and esoteric philosophical words