On any given day, 100 ships transited the Straits of Hormuz before war with Iran. Now that's 0 (top left). In normal times, 2/3 of this traffic is tankers (top right) and the rest cargo (bottom charts). No way we're going back to 100 ships any time soon...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/oil-tanker...
How to think about Brent: Russia exports 7 million barrels of oil daily. Normally, 20 million barrels go through the Straits of Hormuz daily. So this shock is 3x what Russia's invasion of Ukraine was in 2020. But the current rise in oil prices is smaller...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/a-massive-...
Last night I wrote a "The Persian Gulf Is Over" post, for Monday, that I thought was kind of alarmist, but smart.
Will it just be conventional wisdom by Monday?
No matter how much the US and Israel degrade Iran militarily, there's just no way to ensure that Iran doesn't blow up an oil tanker in the Straits of Hormuz. Markets are belatedly realizing this. There's just no way tanker traffic can go back to normal...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/oil-tanker...
On any normal day, 60 oil tankers go through the Straits of Hormuz. That number is currently zero and - if tanker traffic resumes - Iran has every incentive to blow one up, which will cause a massive crisis in global markets. I talked about this on CNBC last night...
www.cnbc.com/video/2026/0...
I’ve been on the bearish end of the spectrum on Iran. The Straits of Hormuz are a massive chokepoint. Iran just has to blow up one oil tanker to it'll cause a crisis in global markets. Thanks to @soumayakeynes.ft.com for having me on the FT podcast to talk about this...
www.ft.com/content/afcc...
Iran is getting bombed to smithereens. If oil tanker traffic through the Straits of Hormuz resumes in any meaningful fashion, Iran has every incentive to blow up a ship. All it takes is one oil tanker and global markets will go into a violent sell-off...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/a-scary-da...
Markets were complacent at the start of the week, but no longer. Brent is up 22% since last Friday and closely tracking 2022 after the Ukraine invasion. 2022 was a much smaller shock for oil markets than now. So there's still upside risk for oil prices...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/a-massive-...
The Brent oil price is about to hit $90 per barrel and this is why: on any normal day, there's 60 oil tankers going in and out of the Straits of Hormuz. That number is zero at the moment and will be really hard to get back up. This is a massive shock...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/oil-tanker...
FInally bsky.app/profile/robi...
This is how sheer lunacy looks like...
The main point of the resolution is that attacks on Ukraine electrical substations and other energy infrastructure pose a direct threat to nuclear safety.
How can one not want to support it?
#Ukraine
www.wsj.com/world/for-th...
Markets were incredibly complacent at the start of the week, but - with Brent now around $85 - I think we're starting to price a reasonable risk premium. This is up 18% from Friday and I think starts to accurately reflect risk of a major supply disruption...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/a-massive-...
We're all focused on oil, but there's something else. All goods trade in the Gulf has basically ground to a halt. That's a massive shock to economies in the region, most of all to the UAE, China and Turkey, which have a big presence in the region...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-iran-...
The Dollar (blue) has risen sharply above rate differentials (black). That's the best indication this week's Dollar spike is about short-term risk aversion and repatriation flows. Totally short-term and doesn't invalidate Dollar weakness later this year...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-this-...
Markets are pricing war with Iran as a hawkish shock for the Fed (lhs). But the US rate differential versus its G10 peers is moving against the Dollar (rhs), because central banks outside the US will also be less dovish. None of this is Dollar bullish...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-this-...
Brent is now up 15% from Friday. When I wrote this piece on Monday, it was only up 7% and that underpriced the massive risk to global oil supply. Iran's regime is battling for its survival. Its only hope is to drive global oil prices as high as possible...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/a-massive-...
This week's rise in USD confounded those who said the US is losing reserve currency status. That's NOT what it's about. Americans repatriate assets when bad shocks hit, like in 2008, 2020 or 2025. A very short-term thing. The Dollar will resume its fall...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-this-...
For a few hours yesterday morning, markets looked very scary. Brent was going vertical, USD was rising like crazy and S&P 500 was plummeting. The US calmed things down by promising to insure and escort oil tankers, but one Iranian rocket can change that...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/a-scary-da...
Brent is up 14% since Friday (blue). On a similar timeline, Brent was up 4% after Russia invaded Ukraine (black). Iran sits on a massive chokepoint in global oil markets. Insuring and escorting oil tankers doesn't change that. That makes this shock so big...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/a-massive-...
Iran's only plausible defense is to spike oil prices as much as possible, The US has promised to escort and insure oil tankers to thwart this, but Iran can still shoot rockets at ports, pipelines and oil production facilities. That's what scares markets...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/a-scary-da...
The Brent oil price fell back a bit from its highs this morning after the US promised to provide insurance and protection for oil tankers in the Straits of Hormuz. But that doesn't solve the problem. Iran can start lobbing rockets at production facilities...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/a-massive-...
I was on @marketplace.org with @kairyssdal.bsky.social yesterday to talk about fallout from the spike in oil prices and US reserve currency status. Everyone's wondering why the US started this war. That's can't be good for US reserve currency status medium term.
www.marketplace.org/episode/2026...
The Dollar is going vertical against the G10 and EM. This kind of spike has the potential to be highly disruptive. EM central banks will be intervening to stop their currencies from falling and will be selling Treasuries. That's bad for the basis trade...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/a-massive-...
The Dollar is rallying sharply. When this kind of Dollar strength happens, risk of disorderly market conditions and problems in the US Treasury market rise, because the highly leveraged basis trade can get hit as EM central banks sell their Treasuries...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/oil-prices...
There's a weird tendency in markets to downplay unexpected shocks when they happen. That's because people don't like to look like they didn't see it coming, so they downplay unexpected shocks and their impact. What's happening now is absolutely massive...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/a-massive-...
The Brazilian Real has fallen around 2.5% from Friday (blue) and is following almost exactly its trajectory when Russia invaded Ukraine 4 years ago (black). Compared to the chaos in global markets given the massive oil price spike, Brazil is outperforming...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/prime-time...
Two days after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Brent was up 1% (black). In contrast, 2 days after the US launched attacks on Iran, we're up 15% (blue). This is an absolutely massive shock that's feeding through global markets. Disorderly conditions building...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-iran-...
The Brent oil price is now up a stunning 14% from Friday and we're starting to see disorderly strengthening in the Dollar as the global risk-off builds. Even gold is down versus the Dollar at this point. This is a very big shock for global markets...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/a-massive-...
The debasement trade has been a massive ad campaign for gold as a safe haven. After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, it took gold a few days to start rising. Now with war in Iran, the rise is almost instantaneous. Gold has become the safe haven of choice...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/everything...
Today's fall in the Brazilian Real is an almost exact repeat of what happened in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. The initial reaction is risk-off and the Real falls. It took about two weeks for markets to realize higher oil prices are good for the Real...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/prime-time...
