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Paul Bivand

@paulbivand

Labour market stats wonk: default mode: cynical. Boosts are not endorsements and may be ironic. Also on avian-dinosaur-site @PaulBivand

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Latest posts by Paul Bivand @paulbivand

An archaeological trench showing various gullys and ditches. Some of these contain runs of short orange ceramic water pipes that fit together not unlike lego to create continuous lengths of pipe.

An archaeological trench showing various gullys and ditches. Some of these contain runs of short orange ceramic water pipes that fit together not unlike lego to create continuous lengths of pipe.

We're sure all you can think about today is that it's World Plumbing Day. πŸ‘¨β€πŸ”§πŸ’¦

So here's the Palace plumbing - ceramic pipes that carried water around the formal gardens and fed fountains and ornamental basins and the like.

(1960s excavation photo)

πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡

11.03.2026 11:03 πŸ‘ 166 πŸ” 37 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 4

The old people who remembered Churchill as a Liberal Home Secretary doing beastly Home Secretary things have all passed on. Not all their children though.

11.03.2026 19:16 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

πŸ“• NEW from @anacostaramon.bsky.social, Michaela Slotwinski, @ursina.bsky.social and Anne Ardila BrenΓΈe:

'Do Mothers Respond to Information About the Long-Term Consequences of Part-Time Work?'

11.03.2026 15:46 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Isn't it a jacobite tree, historically?

11.03.2026 14:59 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

It's UC as Hotel California. Most of the words.

11.03.2026 14:19 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Looking back at JSA, claim terminations for failing to attend interviews were often people getting a job and not telling jobcentre, just not signing on. Small Β£ incentives to tell them. Not much sign of changing jobcentre culture.

11.03.2026 11:29 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Some of this driven by moves from old benefits to UC. Relatedly, David Webster's latest update is on the CPAG page. Including a call for someone to take over the work.

11.03.2026 10:40 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Alfred the Great’s Indian Embassy

How likely is it that Alfred the Great sent two emissaries to India in the ninth century?

βŒ›οΈ Last chance to read this recent History Matters for free

www.historytoday.com/archive/hist...

11.03.2026 10:03 πŸ‘ 28 πŸ” 16 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1

Remember that contractors in building repair likely to be self-employed. Which means people find out about earnings by word of mouth. Not very efficient.

11.03.2026 10:26 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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End of year food bank stats | Trussell View the latest annual stats about the number of emergency food parcels distributed by our community of food banks in the past 12 months.

New @trusselluk.bsky.social stats out today: 2.6 million emergency food parcels in 2025 - 1 every 12 seconds.

We're seeing really deep and prolonged hardship, especially for families. As well as for disabled people and fast growing numbers of pensioners.

www.trussell.org.uk/news-and-res...

11.03.2026 09:46 πŸ‘ 19 πŸ” 13 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 1

Sadly, North Yorkshire has a terrible reputation for raptor persecution - and it seems that North Yorkshire Police don’t particularly care. Thank you for continuing to shine a spotlight on this.

10.03.2026 18:43 πŸ‘ 15 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Change speed limits to kph from mph, leave the signs as they are. Very cheap.

10.03.2026 18:52 πŸ‘ 12 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Recent weeks show our reliance on cars, but cycling can help. Most 2024 journeys were under 5 miles, ideal for cycling. Swapping short car trips saves Β£, pollution & fossil fuel use. Safer roads matter, which is why backing #MyRideOurRight helps everyone.

cyclinguk.org/my-ride-our-right

10.03.2026 17:11 πŸ‘ 29 πŸ” 15 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Net replacement rates in unemployment for a single homeowner on average wage without children (%, 2024) - pink dot is at month one of unemployment and blue dot at month 60. UK rates are low by international standards

Net replacement rates in unemployment for a single homeowner on average wage without children (%, 2024) - pink dot is at month one of unemployment and blue dot at month 60. UK rates are low by international standards

Even if AI doesn’t hit jobs in a big way, unemployment is starting to re-emerge as a policy issue. So it’s good that @sarahoconnorft.ft.com reminds us how low our unemployment benefits are, and how this can lead to people taking jobs below their skill level
www.ft.com/content/771a...

10.03.2026 07:24 πŸ‘ 54 πŸ” 20 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 0

May be fair that some API documentation looks remarkably like the legendary 'in the locked filing cabinet in the basement, but beware of the leopard'. Thinking of DWP Stat-xplore.

10.03.2026 16:38 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Parliamentlive.tv Justice and Home Affairs Committee

At 11.55 here Claude Moraes correctly points out that care workers/dependants are fiscally *positive* every year until about 2045.

In response, the Home Office official misstates the facts & clearly doesn't understand either the point or the actual data/analysis

parliamentlive.tv/event/index/...

10.03.2026 13:49 πŸ‘ 77 πŸ” 32 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 2

Likely a better camera than my russian-made Lubitel twin-lens reflex.

10.03.2026 14:20 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

From memory, the Tories criticised the Labour test for being about who has the right to vote, and how to get it, and about benefits and processes to claim them, rather than national myths and legends, plus random hoop-jumps.

10.03.2026 13:17 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
A Brothers Mehteh bicycle.

A Brothers Mehteh bicycle.

Worried about wild fluctuations from $90/barrel crude to $110/barrel? I recommend you invest in an oil price spike nonchalance machine for your personal transport needs:

09.03.2026 22:58 πŸ‘ 15 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Russia forged new cyber weapons to attack Ukraine. Now they're going international At the end of December, the person manning the digital boards at PSE, Poland's national electricity operator, noticed a flurry of solar stations suddenly flicker off grid. Poland in the dead of winte...

Poland’s electricity operator detected a suspicious disruption in late December when several solar power stations suddenly disconnected from the grid despite continuing to generate power.

09.03.2026 17:48 πŸ‘ 164 πŸ” 80 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 3
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An unexpected benefit of London's cycle lanes...our would-be Dalek overlords are able to take an afternoon stroll with their human minders, unimpeded

07.03.2026 22:57 πŸ‘ 197 πŸ” 62 πŸ’¬ 11 πŸ“Œ 8

Almost Friday lunchtime. Looking for something to read? How about a blog? The traditional U-shape in wellbeing…?

06.03.2026 11:32 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

The most notable leftish policies have been repainting trains, and 2 acts that haven't taken effect yet, renters rights and employment rights.

05.03.2026 23:13 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

It is a problem that Labour voters in 2024 are perceived as Labour supporters, rather than tactical voters who chose Labour as the best local option for beating Tories (or Farage). Reverting to DK or others in the space would be likely.

05.03.2026 17:34 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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This is why I write so much about pavement parking

04.03.2026 19:33 πŸ‘ 631 πŸ” 109 πŸ’¬ 50 πŸ“Œ 11

Though the OBR's tendency for their forecasts to revert to long-term trend beyond the point when City forecasters stop their forecasts remains evident. More positively, despite the DWP attempts to hide economic relevance to their stats (no seasonally adjusted JSA starts), no sign of job loss rise.

05.03.2026 14:10 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Data centres for financial trading likely physically close to markets, others could be elsewhere. Think pennine valleys, where former water powered mills, could be used.

05.03.2026 12:03 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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2026 Radical Statistics Conference This year's conference will be held in London on Saturday,14 March at St Luke’s Community Centre, London, EC1V 8AJ.

RadStats annual conference 2025 is being held on 14 March at St Luke's community centre. The theme is using data to promote progressive change and there is a wide range of talks and workshops which is still being added to! Sign up now, students go free. www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/2026-radic...

04.03.2026 14:14 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Splitting those NEET numbers by disability (small sample numbers, so wide confidence intervals) shows rises with age for both disabled and not disabled young NEETs.

03.03.2026 14:45 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Having now got the data for the latest quarter from the UK data service, here are the percentages NEET and not NEET by individual year of age. The percentages go up by age, and are low (by comparison with 22-24s) for 16-17s. N.B. ONS stats distribute missings to the other groups.

03.03.2026 14:45 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0