Decision Desk HQ

Decision Desk HQ | Substack Home to Decision Desk HQ's analysis of U.S. elections and politics, led by The Bellwether newsletter. Click to read Decision Desk HQ, a Substack publication with hundreds of thousands of subscribers.

To receive more of DDHQ's electoral analysis and coverage like this, please subscribe to our Substack!

decisiondeskhq.substack.com/welcome

On DDHQ's podcast, Sean Trende explained race & redistricting rules, including tensions between interpretations of the Voting Rights Act & the 14th Amendment.

Now SCOTUS seems likely to dismantle the VRA, which could open up new redistricting conflicts.

decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/voting-rig...

Sign up for DDHQ Votes to explore past election results, monitor prediction market data, and watch live returns on Election Nights in 2026!

votes.decisiondeskhq.com

Wesley Hunt's best not-tiny county was Chambers County (20.5%) in the Houston 'burbs.

His best larger county was right next door in Harris (19.8%), home to Houston and much of his current congressional district.

votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242465

Ken Paxton's best not-tiny county was still-small Sabine County (56.7%) in East Texas.

His best larger county was Montgomery (54.6%) in the Houston suburbs — not coincidentally the location of a big part of the defeated Dan Crenshaw's TX-02 district.

votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242465

In the GOP primary, John Cornyn's best county of any size was Travis County (54.3%). Although it will be solidly blue in November, Travis did cast almost 56k votes in the GOP primary (8th-most of any county).

votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242465

Jasmine Crockett's strongest county of note was Jefferson (79.0%) in the state's southeast corner.

This reflected the east-west split in the Democratic primary, with Crockett stronger east of the Dallas/Houston metros & Talarico stronger to the west.

votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242466

in the Democratic primary, James Talarico's best county where he won >1,000 votes was Gillespie (76.6%), a bit west of Austin.

Next-best was unsurprisingly Travis County (75.6%), home to Austin and Talarico's home base.

votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242466

Using DDHQ's new Votes election data portal, here's a look at the #TXSen primary results and the best counties for the major contenders (in counties where a candidate got at least 1,000 votes)

votes.decisiondeskhq.com

Decision Desk HQ | Substack Home to Decision Desk HQ's analysis of U.S. elections and politics, led by The Bellwether newsletter. Click to read Decision Desk HQ, a Substack publication with hundreds of thousands of subscribers.

And make sure to subscribe to receive all of DDHQ's election analysis and content in your inbox, including our Monday newsletter and polling memo.

decisiondeskhq.substack.com/welcome

The future Electoral College could hinge mostly on the outcomes in Arizona, Georgia & North Carolina — right now, that seems like good news for the GOP, although things could surely change between now and 2032.

Watch/listen to the podcast here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/voting-rig...

This week's DDHQ podcast: We talked about the consequences of the Voting Rights Act's anticipated demise. We also dug into 2030 census projections.

Post-VRA redistricting could run into incumbents' preferences and complicate future redraws.

decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/voting-rig...

Check out that race here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/4188

You can see historical results and watch live on election nights using Votes, Decision Desk HQ's new election data platform!

Another example: Kristi Noem's own primary for SD governor in 2022.
votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/10356

Kristi Noem is considering a primary challenge to Sen. Mike Rounds (R) in South Dakota. That'd be an exit ramp after being forced out of the Cabinet.

In 2020, Rounds won his primary 75%-25% vs a candidate running to his right. But Noem would be a tougher opponent.

DDHQ's new Votes platform for election data has plenty of interesting election results, historical and live on Election Night, that you can dive into. No matter the circumstances involved!

votes.decisiondeskhq.com

Keith Self (R) won the runoff unopposed, then easily won the general election, and he remains the 3rd District's rep.

votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/21167

Were Tony Gonzales to abandon the runoff, he'd be the 2nd TX Republican to do so recently over a situation involving infidelity.

In 2022, Rep. Van Taylor won shy of 50% in his primary vs. Keith Self, but then quit before the runoff while admitting to an affair.

votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/6717

Texas Attorney General Democratic Primary
Decision Desk HQ projects Nathan Johnson and Joe Jaworski to advance to a runoff in the Democratic primary for the Texas Attorney General race.

#DecisionMade: 1:15 pm ET

Follow more results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/243886

Decision Desk HQ projects Jace Yarbrough and Ryan Binkley to advance to a runoff in the Republican primary for Texas’s 32nd congressional district.

#DecisionMade: 9:53 am ET

Follow more results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242529

Decision Desk HQ projects Al Green and Christian Menefee to advance to a runoff in the Democratic primary for Texas’s 18th congressional district.

#DecisionMade: 9:34 am ET

Follow live results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242502

Decision Desk HQ projects Vicki Goodwin and Marcos Velez to advance to a runoff in the Democratic primary for the Texas Lt. Governor race.

#DecisionMade: 3:25 am ET

Follow live results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/243884

Decision Desk HQ projects Dan Barrios wins the Texas US House 32 Democratic Primary,

#DecisionMade: 3:11 AM EST

Follow live results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242530

Decision Desk HQ projects Maureen Galindo and Johnny Garcia to advance to a runoff in the Democratic primary for Texas’s 35th congressional district.

#DecisionMade: 2:47 am ET

Follow live results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242536

Decision Desk HQ projects Nate Sheets wins the Texas Agriculture Commissioner Republican Primary.

#DecisionMade: 2:43 AM EST

Follow live results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/243889

Decision Desk HQ projects James Talarico wins the Texas US Senate Democratic Primary

#DecisionMade: 2:13 AM EST

Follow live results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242466

DDHQ Race Update (est. 83% in): Texas US Senate Democratic Primary

James Talarico (D): 1,046,459 (53.1%)
Jasmine Crockett (D): 897,898 (45.6%)

Follow more results here:
votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242466

DDHQ Race Update (est. 81% in): Texas US Senate Democratic Primary

James Talarico (D): 1,024,230 (53.0%)
Jasmine Crockett (D): 883,167 (45.7%)

Follow more results here:
votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242466

DDHQ Race Update (est. 86% in): Texas US Senate Republican Primary

John Cornyn (R): 814,894 (42.1%)
Ken Paxton (R): 790,462 (40.8%)
Wesley Hunt (R): 257,146 (13.3%)

Follow more results here:
votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242465

DDHQ Race Update (est. 83% in): Texas US Senate Republican Primary

John Cornyn (R): 788,833 (42.2%)
Ken Paxton (R): 762,285 (40.8%)
Wesley Hunt (R): 247,135 (13.2%)

Follow more results here:
votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242465

DDHQ Race Update (est. 79% in): Texas US Senate Democratic Primary

James Talarico (D): 996,433
(53.0%)
Jasmine Crockett (D): 860,963
(45.8%)

Follow more results here:
votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242466