Osintoilija

I'm a simple man - I see MS Paint, I follow.

New moon tonight.

Where would one find a good set of AIS data to use as training material for a simple model?

Simple Bayesian filtering, a.k.a. spam or ham, should do the trick.

Looks like a group of Rusich weekend warriors on a border patrol with wildly varying equipment. They're occasionally doing similar social media stunts on the Finnish border.

Not literally tonight, but get your things in order without wasting any time.

These are one-way single-use drones. Range (until fuel runs out) is estimated at 400–600 km, but lately even 700 kms has seemed plausible without a warhead, with extended internal fuel tank. There are no external mount points.

Also, looks like this drone has a 4-element Kometa-M counter-EW antenna on top. That's a really outdated version and probably easily fooled by Ukrainian EW measures.

Assuming this Gerbera was launched from the nearest bases in Bryansk area and just briefly visited Ukrainian air space, it still flew 1000+ kms - way over its range.

Possibilities:
1) Debris moved for reasons.
2) Flight path straight across Belarus
3) Flight path along the Lithuanian border.

Hmm.

I trust you have better visibility into this, although the evidence feels still pretty scarce in social media / news websites.

2024 United States drone sightings - Wikipedia

Thanks, I guess it could be a drone? But in all honesty, I see a light with other flashing lights. Could it be a helicopter with a search light? Plane with approach / tail light?

I'll just leave this here for now, but willing to correct myself if / when more evidence gets published:

Last night more drones over at least four Danish airports:
- Aalborg
- Esbjerg
- Sønderborg
- Skrydstrup
Drone incursion continued for several hours and there were many drones.

Still no videos. Still no drones captured. We'll just have to belive they were there.

Surely there must be plenty of videos of the drones? It's a large open public place, and even the police have described these drones as big and flown by capable pilots, whatever that means.

Maybe there's a 4G modem and a salvaged Russian SIM card inside as well.

Have you seen anything more detailed than the "here's a red straight line between the entry and and exit points" map authorities provided?

Based on that, it'd be easy to say this was a deliberate provocation. They must know where the int'l air space goes and there's no linear shortcut on Est coast.

Some people should read a bit on moral panic and take a moment to look back and self-reflect.

Ru has become our 21st century folk devils. We've stopped admitting contradicting evidence or faults in our own logic. Even our sense of reality has gone, if we can deny a war exists, and then it doesn't.

Drones over Copenhagen and Oslo airports. Flights diverted. Police and media at the scenes. Spec ops helicopter in standby. Big drones, unavailable to civilians. Capable operators.

Let's see the videos! There's got to be hours and hours of footage from all possible angles, right?

...Right?

Turns out the distance traveled in Estonian air space was 170 kms. Thus, the cruising speed of MiG-31 is 460 kt / 850 kmh.

A covert strike? I'm a friend of Clancy novels as well, but isn't it a bit asymmetrical and just calling for more escalatory actions in return?

Hot defense feels appropriate, but I feel pessimistic. An attempt to turn air policing –> air defense will stall due to NATO countries' internal politics.

Two data points doesn't make a trend, but my personal hunch is these provocations will continue. I'm guessing it's part of a larger strategy aimed at weakening Ukraine by pushing NATO to bolster its air defenses on the alliance's eastern border.

Finland, or maybe Norway next?

Re: Ru violation of Estonian air space on Friday morning. I usually remind commentators about the narrow air corridor between Finland & Estonia, and how Ru mil aircraft fail to stay in it on a semi-regular basis.

This was different. 12 mins for a 110 km trip means those MiGs wanted to cause a fuss.

Ru has more prod. capacity and exp. from drone warfare atm. NATO still has plenty of low-med alt. AD + testing grounds for new tech, and deep strike cap. Ukr lacks.

NATO clearly tries to stay an arms length away from the fight, although Ru makes it difficult. Prob. due to internal pol. differences.

I'm all for Russian incompetence and negligence, but considering the drone had to fly 1,000+ kms and several hours into completely wrong direction across the western part of the country, we could probably immediately rule out incompetence.

Two very different scenarios are being mixed up.

There's the need to monitor the border for drones. This is doable with a sparse sensor diffusion network.

Then, there's the need to intercept autonomous swarms of strike, recon and decoy UAVs. A thin drone wall would be a poor strategy for this.

Any info if these are still modded with an "after-market" 4G connectivity kit, or does it already come pre-installed? I think Russia has been more or less hot-glueing Alcatel 4G USB stick modems to its UAVs to call back to base in-flight.

Currently published evidence seems to point to decoy drone Gerberas with no warheads. No Shaheds, which were probably intercepted in Ukraine already earlier during the attack.

My hot take here:
bsky.app/profile/osin...

I might take a look at those Polish and Lithuanian SIM cards on the UAVs next.

Dlaczego MON i prokuratura milczą w sprawie zniszczonego domu w Wyrykach? Bo to nie rosyjski dron Prokuratura utajnia informacje o „niezidentyfikowanym obiekcie latającym”, którego szczątki runęły na dom w Wyrykach na Lubelszczyźnie. Milczy też MON. Według i

Russia's Poland drone incursion from last week is being investigated, and watered down. The latest claim is that the house hit by *something* was actually hit by a malfunctioning missile from an F-16.

www.rp.pl/wojsko/art43...

Finally, either through EW interference or simply Russian incompetence and overlook, the drones crossed into Poland. A few were intercepted, but most quickly ran out of fuel and crash-landed.

I believe this is the simplest explanation. Interested to hear your thoughts!

Ukraine, with an upgraded ability to detect and classify drones, concentrated on intercepting the Shaheds. The Gerberas—used as decoys or possibly communication relays—slipped through, flying some 700 km across Ukraine largely unchallenged.

So, what most happened? Speculative part.