Perhaps the quants are the marketing. Old hat tactics don't get you a 9 figure valuation, but the exact same thing done by tech bros and quant wizards might

Interesting. I vaguely recall them hiring for a bunch of O&M and asset development roles quite some time ago, so it’s amusing if they have not, in fact, been able to “get sh-t done”

Still plenty to fear in that. My understanding is Octo survives because its hedging is pretty vanilla. Whereas Fuse might try to be too clever and end up accidentally in a pickle when their quant model blows up with some big regime shift well (a la Ukraine gas price spikes).

3) "Their hedging is not hedging"
Where did your futures vs DA arb come from? If the guy is as horrible as they say, he's not going to hire quants from the City and let them off that easy. Could it be that their demand model is indeed x% better and means less churn, so less spread lost?

2) "What middle men?"
I believe they're talking about in-sourcing the construction of generation assets. This still strikes me as a fallacy of conflating two different margins and calling it bigger, but I do think it is fair to say that they can vertically integrate on the gen side of gentailer

Also, Revolut have done fine ignoring customers who want a high street experience. They're happy to freeze accounts endlessly and not give you a person to call. To this day I have no idea why Starling exists; more hostile with worse product than the other digi-banks, yet millions still use it.

1) "They need to convert harder-to-service people."
Yes, cost-to-serve rises as they grow. Octo bought top supplier spot through SLRs & huge marketing $. They installed smart meters (fines notwithstanding) & dragged many onto apps. Now they raise prices. If Fuse can undercut the market exists.

I have no love lost for Fuse (they weren't even cheaper when I compared them!). I would buy puts at their current valuation if the expiry was long enough. But I would like to steel-man some of the claims in this thread and see where we land.

Thanks!

What’s the source of the observations here please?

Thanks!

And what shapefiles did you use for the grid boundaries and grid layout?

Where do the boundary flow arrow data come from please?

Good find, thanks. I was just wondering if anything has changed since 2021, which is often the case with these kinds of projects.

Intriguing. How did it manage to get a grid connection without capacity? I get that Connect & Manage was in play but I can’t see how this went through yet so many projects are delayed indefinitely due to insufficient capacity. Also, I can’t tell from the link; do we know when the 400kV goes live?