NEW Q&A | U.S. Snaps up Venezuela’s Oil and Rare Minerals in Race for Supplies
Even before the price of oil spiked, the Trump administration was eyeing Venezuela’s natural resources. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts explain the challenges lying ahead.
NEW Q&A | Can the U.S. Cutoff Bring Change to Cuba?
Cuba is facing its biggest humanitarian crisis and the greatest threat to its political status quo in decades. In this Q&A, we explain the causes of the island’s predicament and offer ways of easing it.
www.crisisgroup.org/qna/latin-am...
Join us on 3 March for a timely webinar where RUSI experts and associates will explore the security, political and wider implications of the death of the leader of Mexico’s Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG), ‘El Mencho’.
📌 Join @crisisgroup.org's @dmoravera.bsky.social on Tuesday, 3 March, for a @rusi.bsky.social webinar on Mexico's criminal landscape after the killing of the leader of the powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel.
⏰ 14:00 – 15:30 GMT
Register here 🔽
my.rusi.org/events/webin...
NEW ANALYST'S NOTEBOOK | Killing of Mexican Cartel Boss Brings Diplomatic Victory and Domestic Mayhem
@dmoravera.bsky.social analyses the potential fallout of the operation against the leader of the powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel.
www.crisisgroup.org/anb/latin-am...
But the security test is not today or tomorrow. The gov is already reinforcing troops to contain the violent response. The real challenge comes ahead: w/o clear heir, remaining Cartel leadership could dispute control. The Cartel’s turf wars with an array of local groups could worsen too.
Guadalajara hosted its 1/2 marathon today. Over 10k runners came from out of state. Many tried returning home but state highways were blocked and the airport closed. A runner getting food next to me couldn’t go back to Colima, she’ll try tomorrow if conditions allow.
Businesses closed early in the morning. On Chapultepec, a main thoroughfare, there’s only one taco stall selling food. Line is long. Doctor behind me says he is buying food for some patients — his hospital ran out of meals. This city is expected to host World Cup matches in a few months.
MX Army killed El Mencho today. A win for Sheinbaum. USG is happy too. The Cartel was quick to react setting buses, trucks and businesses on fire, blockading streets and highways. Locals? Terrified. I’m in Guadalajara, a city that virtually emptied out. No public transport, people sheltered in place
Hoy no se puede hablar de la naturaleza del conflicto armado en #Colombia sin reconocer que hay niños y niñas obligados a participar en todas sus dimensiones.
Hoy, escribo en @elpaisamerica.bsky.social sobre el reclutamiento de menores @latam.crisisgroup.org
elpais.com/america-colo...
MAÑANA | Nuevo informe
Beyond the motive, these attacks show the conflict is far from over. Government intervention remains largely reactive, entire communities still under the sway of criminal outfits, and victims still need to see justice (and 1000s disappeared need to be found)
A third hypothesis: a show of force. Chapitos may be engaging in high-profile attacks to counter the narrative that they’re losing. They have lost significant territory to Mayos, including parts of southern Sinaloa, where the miners were taken.
Extortion, then? Possible. Mining in the area, large and small ops, is often taxed derecho de piso. Criminal groups sometimes take over operations, especially smaller ones. But to sustain that theory, we’d need to know whether the company had faced prior threats.
That explanation feels too simplistic. (1) At this stage of the Chapitos/Mayos/Other factions fighting, violence is highly targeted, not random. (2) The victims were miners, an identifiable group with ties to foreign interests. That’s not an easy error to make.
Violence in Sinaloa hasn’t stopped. In just two weeks: mass kidnappings and overtly political attacks. The MX gov says Chapitos were behind them. On the abduction of 10 miners (at least 5 killed), Sec. Harfuch said it was a case of mistaken identity, Chapitos allegedly thought they were with Mayos.
This weekend, #Haiti entered a third chapter in its political transition since the 2021 slaying of President Jovenel Moïse.
As the presidential council’s mandate expired, Prime Minister Didier Fils-Aimé became the sole head of the executive.
Here’s what happened and what might come next 🔽
📒 NEW ANALYST’S NOTEBOOK | U.S. Gunboats Patrol Haiti’s Waters amid Wrangling over a New Government
Crisis Group expert @diegodarin.bsky.social assesses the political deadlock in Haiti and the motives behind the deployment of U.S. naval vessels off Port-au-Prince.
📽️ NEW VIDEO | Living in Fear: How Gang Violence Is Reshaping Ecuador
Crisis Group’s expert @glaeldys.bsky.social explains why Ecuadorian criminal groups have grown so precipitously since 2021, and the impact of the government’s strategy to deploy the military to combat insecurity.
NEW ANALYST’S NOTEBOOK | Mexico Seeks to Placate White House with Mass Criminal Transfer
David Mora assesses the latest handover of convicts and criminal suspects amid threats of U.S. military action on Mexican soil.
www.crisisgroup.org/alr/latin-am...
Following days of increasingly strident demands from U.S. President Donald Trump for concrete results in Mexico’s anti-crime fight, President Claudia Sheinbaum on 20 January transferred 37 members of criminal groups to U.S. custody.
#Mexico transferred 37 prisoners to the US in a move to quell tensions, as Washington once again threatens strikes on drug trafficking groups
Yet renditions to the US have tended to escalate violence in Mexico. My colleague @dmoravera.bsky.social explains 👇
www.crisisgroup.org/alr/latin-am...
Delivering results for Trump is not necessarily delivering for the folks here who've bear the brunt of conflict here. Much more needs to be addressed beyond more high-profile transfers.
btw, this is the view from where I am:
A displaced community leader told me he’s returned home now that Mayos control the area (and the many legal/illegal industries here: logging, mining, cattle, traffic routes). He expects less violence now but many neighbors haven’t come back yet: health workers, teachers, entire families.
I just visited Sinaloa's sierra sur and violence hasn’t eased in there. January is on track to be one of the deadliest months since the cartel split. Fighting has spread beyond Culiacán, with Mayos advancing into former Chapitos land.
The transfer will also barely change reality on the ground. Among those transferred are key Sinaloa figures, including Pedro Insunza Coronel. He’s one of the first suspects charged under Trump 2.0 with narcoterrorism and providing material support to an FTO. Mex forces captured him on Dec 31.
The move helps Sheinbaum immediately but tension among the two govs remain. The Trump admin has implied that Sheinbaum’s strategy to double down on drug seizures, captures and decline of homicides is “unacceptable incremental progress” – further pushing the idea of U.S. forces on the ground.
Sheinbaum just handed over 37 cartel suspects to U.S. custody. After the U.S. attack in Caracas, Mexico needs to deliver clear wins for Trump to further deter any U.S. unilateral military move. This is it. Some quick thoughts from Sinaloa, where I am doing fieldwork this week:
After US operations in Venezuela, the ELN has taken steps to ensure its interests are safe, regardless what happens in Caracas.
Today I write in @nytopinion.nytimes.com, the ELN stands emboldened to threaten communities, Colombia, and US ambition in Venezuela 👇
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/14/o...
