This blog post underscores your point since it is striking how biased the ADP sample is because it’s determined by their business rather than statistics
11.02.2026 23:14
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This blog post underscores your point since it is striking how biased the ADP sample is because it’s determined by their business rather than statistics
But two points I'd emphasize at the end here:
1. "Private" data sources often rely on government data -- if you want good private data, you need good government data to back it up;
Person who was fired here - you should still trust BLS data. The agency is being run by the same dedicated career staff who were running it while I was awaiting confirmation from the Senate. And the staff have made it clear that they are blowing a loud whistle if there is interference.
To show my cards, I think the setup Schumer negotiated provides more leverage than this bcuz it separates out DHS. The DHS bill would continue for 2 weeks, but then we’d have a DHS-only shutdown. Harm is limited to DHS, so Ds aren’t worried bcuz SSI or Section 8 payments would eventually stop. YMMV!
Comparing the two, we see a clear disconnect developing at the moment between U.S. producer prices for finished durable and nondurable consumer goods.
A similar gap developed early in the pandemic, when global supply chains were initially thrown into turmoil.
Great podcast with @hpschneider.bsky.social on the ridiculous idea of nominating a “shadow Fed Chair”, and why it makes such little sense that it’s probably not going to happen, even in this administration open.spotify.com/episode/7a52...
Manufacturing employment fell for the second month in a row.
The replies to this are so unhinged - do better @bsky.app community! The whole point of moving here is to elevate the dialogue
Fed's Powell on tariff pass through: "Ultimately, the cost of the tariff has to be paid, and some of it will fall on the end consumer. We know that because that's what businesses say. That's what the data say from past.”
Denouncing Israel in Gaza while supporting their strikes in Iran, and possibly even a U.S. strike, seems like a reasonable position that an uncomfortably small portion of the population probably hold
• Key Takeaway: Evidence of tariff-driven price increases remains minimal but with an effective tariff rate in the mid-teens, it is a matter of when, not if.
CBO posts dynamic score of House version of One Big Beautiful Bill. Conventional, static cost: Increases deficit by $2.41 trillion over 10 years. Dynamic estimate (increase in GDP, increase in net interest costs): $2.77 trillion over 10 years. www.cbo.gov/publication/...
Quite the swing here from “Mexico will pay for the Wall” to having each American taxpayer chip in almost $300 for it. And you’d think Mar-a-Lago fees could go to security for the President who refused his $400k salary 🙄
Thread:
1/ Why has the labor market for young people with Associate Degrees has been more resilient than the one for young people with Bachelor's Degrees?
At least part of the reason - not all of it - seems to be industry exposure.
Political ideology continues to skew perceptions massively, with Democrats now expecting inflation to exceed 10% by June 2026 vs only 1.5% for Republicans.
Tariffs may not have showed up much in retail inflation through May, but import prices haven’t fallen through April like you’d expect if foreigners were “eating” the costs either
So, Core Goods inflation would have accelerated in May if it weren't for the big drag from car prices.
Rather than the “re-privatization” shift the Trump administration promised, the labor market is on track for being 50/50 across contracting/expanding industries, with healthcare being the single engine powering net hiring
Newsom: These images are unacceptable. These people on the car. These aren’t peaceful protesters. They are playing right into Trump’s hand and they need to be called out. They need to be arrested but Donald Trump is the sponsor of these conditions
Quote from Beige Book, May 2025, Cleveland Fed section: "Several manufacturers continued to report flat or softer orders because of ongoing economic and trade policy uncertainty. Some producers also noted softer orders from international customers, and one contact added that their firm had moved production of international orders out of the United States to avoid retaliatory tariffs. By contrast, a small number of manufacturers reported higher orders from customers that were seeking domestic substitutions for imported products."
Some irony as well: While tariffs may spur some onshoring, concerns about retaliatory tariffs mean some businesses have an incentive to offshore U.S. production of goods destined for international markets.
Definitely not as chaotic, but their superior competence arguably makes it more chilling. They’ve used coercive economic measures on foreign critics like Lithuania and Australia, are stealing IP and subsidizing domestically to ensure local market dominance, and might invade Taiwan in the late-2020s
Keep in mind that the alternative here is China, which has brutal authoritarian powers that Trump could only dream about. It’s sad that America is making it such a tough choice, but it’s not like the Chinese offer an appealing vision for the world
line graph showing that, if you adjust for inflation (or inflation and population), revenue is right where CBO projected it would be after TCJA passed
When he says CBO is unreliable, what he's referring to is that CBO didn't predict inflation would spike.
He'll say, "CBO said the Trump tax cuts would lose revenue, but revenues are at their pre-TCJA projections."
But ONLY if you don't adjust for inflation. If you do.... CBO was dead on target.
ICYMI: Joint Tax Committee dynamic score of (only) tax provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill: Would increase GDP growth rate by 0.03 pct pts from 1.83% in current-law baseline to 1.86%. www.jct.gov/publications...
Was quite a moment, a sense we reached some kind of inflection point in U.S. history. You can now personally pay a U.S. president to gain an audience.
Any time Apple CEO Tim Cook has to spend on lobbying Trump about tariffs, such as with a trip to Saudi Arabia, is time he is not spending on developing the world's next great product. Tariffs will sap productivity growth over time finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-l...
Teleworking in the federal government has now dropped below the private sector average despite public workers skewing towards the more educated, professional services sectors that telework the most. www.bls.gov/opub/ted/202...
My introductory remarks on the panel discussion about the future of central bank operating systems at the @AtlantaFed's Financial Markets Conference
open.substack.com/pub/macroeco...
Credit standards were eased; much of that vintage of loans is showing stress but will not be renewed.
We saw the last in forbearance on student loans lapse on October 1. Sure enough, three months later, 90-day delinquencies soared.
