Alper Coşkun

Turkey Has Two Key Interests in the Iran Conflict But to achieve either, it needs to retain Washington’s ear.

There’s a “fragile momentum” in the U.S.-Turkey relationship right now. How Washington proceeds in the Iran war – especially if it arms Kurdish dissidents – could cause this momentum to fall apart.

@iacoskun.bsky.social explains:

Turkey Stakes its Claim in the Ukraine Peace Process Turkey is positioning itself as a key player in a postwar reassurance force for Ukraine, especially in the Black Sea. But Ankara’s relationships with Moscow and Washington mean it faces a tough choice...

Turkey is positioning itself as a key player in a postwar reassurance force for Ukraine, especially in the Black Sea.

But Ankara’s relationships with Moscow and Washington mean it faces a tough choice, says @iacoskun.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

The #Palestinian issue & quest for influence in & beyond #Syria are at the heart of the rising competition, dangerously fueled in some instances by war mongers. Relations are unlikely to recover soon, making the careful & sober management of this state of tension critical. (2/2)

Derailed Israeli-Turkish ties unlikely to recover soon – GIS Reports Once close allies, Israel and Turkiye now clash over Palestine and Syria, with mistrust and competing interests driving a deepening regional rivalry.

As the race to the bottom in Turkish-Israeli relations continues, I examined potential scenarios in what has become an institutionalized form of rivalry between these two, former regional partners. (1/2)

www.gisreportsonline.com/r/turkiye-is...

The Latest Challenge to Türkiye’s Democracy: Crippling the Main Opposition Party The country stands at yet another important threshold of power consolidation and shrinking space for the opposition.

The government-led campaign against Türkiye’s main opposition party appears to follow a central principle, says @iacoskun.bsky.social: “If you can’t beat them, find another way to contain them.”

What this containment looks like & what it may mean: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

The Middle East’s Other Escalating Rivalry Despite past cooperation, relations between Israel and Türkiye have hit a new low. Syria will be a key test.

#Turkey & #Israel are locked in a rivalry that belies a very different legacy in relations & serves neither side's interests. #Syria will be a key test & where the #US can help reverse the negative trajectory, as I argue in @carnegieendowment.org

carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

The Middle East’s Other Escalating Rivalry Despite past cooperation, relations between Israel and Türkiye have hit a new low. Syria will be a key test.

Relations between Israel and Türkiye, historically strong, are now at what @iacoskun.bsky.social labels “an all-time low.” What went wrong, and what’s next?

What happens in Syria may provide some answers, writes Alper for Emissary:

The bottom line:

-Turkey's security is inextricably tied to that of the European continent & vice versa.

-Any future design for European security must acknowledge this reality, leveraging the many opportunities while navigating existing challenges.

Turkey’s Role in Consolidating European Security: Challenges and Opportunities Any redesign of the European security architecture would need to consider multiple challenges including the role of Turkey, which is a pivotal...

Geopolitical disruptions have sparked renewed recognition of Turkey's geostrategic importance, its role as a capable NATO ally & the importance of its burgeoning defense industry.

In this report, I examined Turkey's role in consolidating European security:

www.cats-network.eu/publication/...

The Hope and Skepticism Around the PKK’s Historic Move to Disarm For the Turkish government, the announcement could transform the country’s regional and foreign policy. Others fear it may be less a peace breakthrough than a political maneuver aimed at regime preser...

Could PKK disarmament push Türkiye towards democratic reform? Or will it give President Erdoğan and his regime the tools to entrench authoritarianism?

@iacoskun.bsky.social and Garo Paylan weighed in: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Erdoğan’s Bet on Trump Is Paying Off The two leaders are intent on developing a mutually beneficial agenda—one that could alter Türkiye’s democratic trajectory and its relationship with Europe.

Presidents Trump and Erdoğan share a personal affinity, some policy goals, and a transactional mindset. Where will their penchant for deal-making take them?

I wrote on this for @carnegieendowment.org: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Türkiye Has a Wish List in Syria. It Should Tread Lightly. Assad’s fall has changed the region’s power equilibrium, and Türkiye is eager to capitalize. But it should be aware of the pitfalls.

Following Assad's fall, Türkiye sees a historic chance to address border security, refugee returns, & regional rivalries.

But there are potential pitfalls that Ankara should consider, writes @iacoskun.bsky.social ⏬

Türkiye Has a Wish List in Syria. It Should Tread Lightly. Assad’s fall has changed the region’s power equilibrium, and Türkiye is eager to capitalize. But it should be aware of the pitfalls.

Assad's sudden fall in Syria changed the power constellation in Turkey's favor & brought it closer to realizing its wish list. Still, there are many pitfalls, some within Ankara's control, others not, as I argue in my latest Carnegie Endowment
piece:

carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...