something to be said for trump's effectiveness at fucking over literally all his major voting demographics at once. i didnt think he'd hit the rural EV/electricity haters so hard
oh that was hitting a wall even before now see luke kawa on it. But like qatar spends 9 billion monthly and is totally shuttering theyre going to have to start exiting things
same, even now reading the research notes, you can sense on march 2nd everything could be okay, now we are getting JPM saying the shut-in pace is faster than anticipated and its getting panicky.
And the market is pricing in a lot of oil volatility, but it still seems small relatively
tbh though the cloud companies are making a lot of money thats not gulf related
I am trying to game out what this means for gulf states generally and idk
Venezuela for sure viable at these prices so maybe that could turn out okay if this goes on for a bit
annoyingly i think the super cycle people might be right because we'll need a lot of copper
lot of batteries. Energy storage is going to look really good.
But worth saying again this hasnt happened
to be honest i am pretty cynical about this admin. i did not think they would go this far until the very first day
They also make a lot of oil so its kind of a wash
i will say i do think gas at 7-9$ might change how people feel about commuting lol
fair enough! but we should never waste a crisis
kind of! also led to a lot of green investment that panned out
Theres a weird timing issue with grid infrastructure because of the data centre build but probably wouldnt hurt to own that either
Sadly would have to hand to him
Weirdly i think you want to be long construction, you want to be long cities
Probably long renewables.
The rates situation is really interesting.
Canada/Mexico has just all the cards for CUSMA
I might try and write something more longform because while WTI at $200 for an extended period of time is really, horrendously bad, i feel like it has implications for the world that might be beneficial longterm
also on how dull your knives are lol
Just give them whatever you have to kill boats
A month of russian production is 2 days
theres like 120 million floating out there. But 36 million did sweet fuck all
Right and whatever russia is doing like idk man
yes
JPM: Supply disruptions in the Gulf are accelerating faster than expected as storage constraints begin to force upstream shut‑ins across the region. Seven days into the conflict, we estimate about 2.5 mbd of shut‑ins...Another wave of cuts looks imminent as producers approach storage tops.
Im telling you guys, CBC's podcast game in incredible now
(iraq and qatar already out ofc)
i think my understanding is they have like a week before everyone needs to start shutting stuff off
Yeah i was already in it, but looking back at it now, i cant believe i didnt take it more seriously. i think the game is just going to be finding the knock on risk now that the tails are so expensive
i saw the rory post and was like fuck, this could be it
like the azeris make a lot of oil you think they can just keep this going?
I think a think im trying to parse is that can anyone just bomb iran to keep oil prices high?
