Babies are small.
Macroeconomies are big.
Put 'em together and you get an absolutely fascinating paper from Claudia Goldin.
TLDR: Economic growth that outpaces social growth can dramatically lower fertility rates.
It's the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics's standard definition of involuntary PT = PT worker wants FT but FT not available.
Distinguishes PT due to a lack of demand as "involuntary" (lacking any FT offer) from PT due to worker preferring PT tho employers offer FT & PT.
www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/201...
The text reads: Where Can Gen Z Buy a Home? Easiest for Gen Z to Buy: Fort Wayne, Indiana; Corpus Christi, Texas; Detroit; Laredo, Texas; Memphis; Lincoln, Nebraska; Durham, North Carolina; Fort Worth; Aurora, Colorado; Scottsdale, Arizona. Hardest for Gen Z to Buy: Newark; Richmond, Virginia; Chula Vista, California; Sacramento; Los Angeles; Riverside, California; San Jose, California; Lexington, Kentucky; San Diego; Fremont, California. Source: Point2.
These are the U.S. cities where Gen Z-ers β specifically older members who are early in their careers β have the best and worst chances of buying a home based on earnings and employment data, a recent study found. nyti.ms/4b4XtNX
Letter volumes in Britain have halved since 2011, with more people sending emails and texts over handwritten notes.
But a proposal to reduce the Royal Mail's delivery to just three days a week from six is meeting resistance from lawmakers and businesses.
Some things I've learned in 2023:
1. Black kids tend to get placed into foster care at higher rates than white kids with the same potential for future maltreatment in the home
(more: t.co/qMpsEcuKTr)
New JEL by Marianne Page @UCDavisEcon on familiesβ monetary resources and childrenβs life chances. Overall, policies providing financial resources to economically vulnerable families have the potential to improve childrenβs outcomes.
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
My inaugural bluesky post! Are people really here?
The Hamilton Project did great work this last year.
π This year, Hamilton Project research covered climate, the labor force, contraception, tax policy, and more. Get a snapshot with our year in figures: www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/...
twitter.com/JoshGoodman_...
Age trends in alcohol-specific (blue) and drug poisoning (red) deaths in England and Wales 2001-2022.
Lots of stories going on here, most of them pretty bleak.
R code for this plot is here: github.com/VictimOfMath...
Knowing what this is within 2 seconds ages me. But can't stop thinking it still looks pretty cool even today π
Supply chains for clean energy technologies and for critical minerals are highly geographically concentrated. ππ‘ www.iea.org/reports/worl...
Hi #EconSky!
Working with causal inference, perhaps using RDDs?
This paper reveals significant multiple testing issues in empirical analyses from top-five econ journals.
They highlight pitfalls and possible solution.
Cool #econometrics stuff to read - check it out!
arxiv.org/abs/2205.04345
Job posting on JOE is in decline.
A recorded webinar on the #EconJobMarket is available on the webpage of the AEA Cttee on the Job Mkt:
www.aeaweb.org/joe/communic...
It covers the timeline of the mkt, up-to-date data on the # of jobs listed this cycle, and outcomes for recent cohorts.
#EconTwitter @aeacswep.bsky.social
Sounds like an interesting alternative to Staggered DID methods!
We analyze motherhood gaps in applications sent every 10 minutes of the day...
Mothers systematically reallocate their search activities from times when children are home to school time! (4/6)
Overall, our results show that when you include the full population (not just white men), and account for measurement error in the parent's status, the story is that intergenerational transmission was very strong in the past in the U.S., but decreasing over time:
In October, 2.21 employees quit their job for each worker fired by their employer, that's down a smidge from 2.26 in Sept per today's #JOLTS.
Labor leverage continues slide since Fed started raising rates, approaching pre-pandemic level.
New JPE forthcoming paints a new picture of income inequality in the US.
π£π₯Reminder π₯π£
**Adopt a Paper round 4** -
deadline to apply is December 15th (Google form), while the paper draft is due January 15th.
Interesting paper by Scott and Kristopher on recent home price growth and resilience at a high price point.
bit.ly/3GlDbBw
Does performance-based public funding pay off for university research? We apply Arkhangelsky et al.'s (AER, 2021) synthetic DiD to UK's REF. We find significant and causal effects in UK univs' Economics and Business research output since REF in 2009. Available as WP: ideas.repec.org/p/pbs/ecofin...
Excellent news today - our paper on bootstrap inference with asymptotically biased estimators, joint with Silvia Goncalves, Morten Nielsen & Edoardo Zanelli, has been accepted by the π±ππππππ ππ πππ π¨πππππππ πΊππππππππππ π¨ππππππππππ! βββ
For the paper, see: arxiv.org/abs/2208.02028
Deep-frying a Thanksgiving turkey is not just a stunt β itβs the best way to cook it, says a New York Times Food reporter. With the right equipment, some caution and a lot of peanut oil, it will yield the juiciest, crispiest bird. Watch how to do it here.
Universal lunch reducing groceries prices charged at stores remains my favorite example of (positive) indirect effects. Itβs so cool
White House CEA kicking out amazing research today.
The March 2021 (2 months after Biden became POTUS) American Rescue Plan authorized $24 billion in childcare stabilization grants.
Once $ arrived in counties, mothers of young children gained employment.
www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-...
