@daveindercomar
Attorney and PhD candidate at the Grotius Centre for Intl Legal Studies at Leiden🌞🌍⚖️ Researching self-determination and climate change👨🏾💼 🌳 I also advise smart, principled people and companies that are impacting the world
The fact that we are even discussing tipping points is a fatal indictment of the global legal system.
20th century legal frameworks failed to prevent climate disruption. We must abandon "soft policy" and engineer a civilizational mandate to avoid dramatic Earth changes that lie ahead.
I briefed States and NGOs at a UN Human Rights Council side event yesterday on climate tipping points. The collapse of the AMOC or the Amazon is more than an environmental crisis. It is the also the erasure of the right to self-determination. You cannot govern a state that is no longer habitable.
The rate of global warming has doubled. The UK is now openly preparing to stockpile food for climate shocks and war.
"Net Zero" was a soft policy illusion. We have officially entered the era of "hard adaptation."
We had a great side event at the UN Human Rights Council on climate tipping points and human rights.
Bringing scientists and human rights experts can lead to powerful policy insights on how we protect human dignity on a changing planet.
European States and Canada are letting the US/Israel strikes on Iran pass without legal challenge — effectively consenting to Great Power aggression outside the UN Charter.
In a 3°C world of collapsing food systems and Arctic resource scrambles, these are the same rules that would protect them.
European States and Canada are letting the US/Israel strikes on Iran pass without legal challenge — effectively consenting to Great Power aggression outside the UN Charter.
In a 3°C world of collapsing food systems and Arctic resource scrambles, these are the same rules that would protect them.
The US/Israel strikes on Iran, with almost total European acquiescence, are establishing the legal baseline for the post-Holocene.
When Great Powers can bypass the UN Security Council and face no consequences, that becomes the template for how climate disputes and migration crises will be governed.
The Post-Holocene is being created right now by anarchic Great Powers who have gutted the international rule of law. The UN Security Council is paralyzed. The ICC is sanctioned
This is just the beginning of lawless State action as planetary geography is transformed from accelerating climate impacts
The prohibition on aggression in the UN Charter is more than a moral ideal. It was the load-bearing pillar of the post-1945 world.
The failure to prosecute aggression is now taking us back to the 19th century, prior to Nuremberg.
No surprise that Great Powers are gutting the ICC and its mandate
The prohibition on aggression was a fundamental component of the post World War 2 order. Aggression was the chief crime prosecuted at Nuremberg. It contains the "accumulated evil of the whole" in relation to war and war crimes ⚖️ Stunning that this wisdom has been so carelessly lost.
Soft climate policy has failed. We are entering the Post-Holocene without any real plan to maintain a habitable planet.
The era of incrementalism is dead. The only viable geopolitical mandates are "hard adaptation" to survive the immediate hostility, and "deep mitigation" to stop the bleeding 🌍
2026 is the year the public realizes that soft climate policy has already failed.
We need a new planetary consensus built on two pillars: "Hard adaptation" to withstand a hostile climate, and "deep mitigation" to engineer a return to the Holocene-like conditions.
This must become our shared goal.
104°F in Texas in February is no longer an 'anomaly'. It is the baseline of the Post-Holocene.
We are watching the failure of 'soft policy' in real-time. 2026 is the year we realize you cannot negotiate with the Post-Holocene.
We require a civilizational-level mandate to stop warming ASAP
Bar chart showing the history of polling on US concern about global warming.
While the US Government may have abruptly decided to ignore global warming, public sentiment remains largely unchanged.
As of Dec. 2025, about 2/3 of the US public continues to be either somewhat or very worried about global warming.
climatecommunication.yale.edu/app/uploads/...
Trump’s "Board of Peace" is more than just (bad) Middle East policy. It is an architectural shift in global governance
A permanent seat costs $1 billion. It turns global survival into a pay-to-play SaaS model
It might become a blueprint for climate, too
daveindercomar.substack.com/p/the-board-...
The Supreme Court has decided to hear a major climate case against fossil fuel companies
Alito has not recused himself, despite owning nearly $200,000 in fossil fuel stocks—including in Phillips 66 and ConocoPhillips, which are being sued in cases that would be directly affected by a SCOTUS ruling
The new “Board of Peace” created by President Trump has chilling consequences for the international order more generally, including for climate change. It is a preview of how powerful States intend to govern the planet in the post-Holocene.
daveindercomar.substack.com/p/the-board-...
AIs escalating to nuclear war is not a bug. They are mirroring the imperial, brutalist logic of their training data
This should be taken as a warning about our "Post-Holocene" era: climate disruption, runaway tech, and governance voids
We need a new global architecture that centers human rights
Long term, multilateralism becomes purely transactional. For sustainability startups, this is hostile terrain. They face massive headwinds because they are trying to innovate in a system where legacy fossil fuel capital can pay the "subscription-tier" of policy choices
For too long, policy experts assumed that accelerating climate impacts would force global cooperation. The "Board of Peace" proves the exact opposite is happening.
By setting a $1 billion buy-in for permanent influence, the US is formalizing hierarchy, guided by SaaS principles and not human rights
The UN is withering as powerful States seek to sidestep it with things like the "Board of Peace".
This is the new global governance framework being built for a 3°C world. As climate impacts accelerate, powerful States are shifting to transactional power and imperial practices. This must be avoided
A permanent seat on the new US "Board of Peace" costs $1 Billion.
We assumed that navigating the Post-Holocene would be a cooperative, universal effort.
Instead, geopolitical survival is being turned into a pay-to-play subscription model.
The BoP is preview of post-Holocene imperial governance.
Major climate agreements (UNFCCC and Paris Agreement) have assumed that increasing climate impacts will force global cooperation. But the exact opposite is happening.
Great Powers are debasing international law. They are already staking claims for the "Post-Holocene". Even if they won't admit it.
A new study confirms that stopping warming is not enough. Global temperatures must cool to at least 1°C above pre-industrial.
Policymakers completely ignore this. "Net zero" is treated as a finish line (to the extent it is even discussed)
Tipping points are a harsh reality demanding greater action
Many US/EU leaders practice 'strategic silence' on the Arctic. It's warming 4x faster. Real risk of AMOC collapse. Yet official focus is mainly on 'Arctic security.'
This is a fatal miscalculation. You cannot militarize a collapsing ecosystem. True Arctic security requires stabilizing the ice.
Greenland remains a major geopolitical flashpoint. But, surprisingly, you don't see US or European leaders ever mention climate.
The Arctic is warming 4 times faster than the rest of the planet. The AMOC is now in the news. These points are never brought up (publicly). It's the elephant in the room
The Pacific and the Arctic are two regions I am studying in the context of shifting climate geopolitics.
New agreements and competing alliances are already evident.
These regions are also intimately connected. Melting Greenland glacial ice is (in part) triggering Pacific island sea-level rise.
We are witnessing a 'great vector expansion' fueled by a rapidly warming world.
As the frost line retreats, diseases like Chikungunya are moving into new latitudes.
Heat stress weakens populations.
Floods degrade sanitation.
Austerity leaves public health systems exposed.
Warming temperatures and extreme weather, combined with new disease vectors, are now creating imminent public health crises in formerly cold places and temperate zones
This is the climate health 'rope-a-dope': Heat + extreme weather + new vectors
All at a time when public health is being defunded
20th-century policy treated Earth as a static resource. The new curriculum must treat Earth as a dynamic, fragile system. Maintaining planetary boundaries must be the primary constitutional obligation of every Post-Holocene State.
daveindercomar.substack.com/p/pioneers-o...