🚨🛢️Is the Global Energy Order Dead?
🇺🇸🇮🇱🔥🇮🇷Forget the 2020 price war.
Forget the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
What we are witnessing in the Strait of Hormuz today is the "Great Energy Reordering" of the 21st century.
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In the meantime, the EU gas security is flying without instruments…
2 - It sends a message to his allies within the EU that he might be “forced” to cut supplies.
3 - It signals to the world that Russia—amid energy chaos now sowed by the Kremlin this time—is ready to provide energy security to alternative partners.
I don’t think that energy geopolitics is built on coincidences. Putin’s statement serves various political objectives:
1 - It deliberately stokes uncertainty in the EU gas market, already roiled by volatile international geopolitical variables.
of Ukraine right at the moment when the EU was weak and depleted of gas reserves.
Is it merely a coincidence that the Russian invasion on Ukraine was launched on Feb. 24, 2022, while the U.S.-Israel strike on Iran was initiated on Feb. 28, 2026?
Again, I made this point a few days ago:
Deprived of Qatari LNG—which traditionally flows to Asia, the EU’s largest competitor in the global gas market—energy stakeholders and policymakers have been blindsided. This is apparently not the case for the man who has occupied the Kremlin for more than twenty years and who launched the invasion
on Russian supplies, even though they rarely admit or discuss this vulnerability.
Yet, this crisis is reaching a boiling point as a consequence of the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the “black swan” scenario of all energy markets analysts.
And establish ourselves there," he said.
These comments refer to the EU plan to completely phase out natural gas imports from Russia, which currently arrive in Central and Eastern Europe through pipelines and as LNG in Northwestern Europe. Various EU Member States are still dependent
Yesterday, speaking to Kremlin-aligned media, the Russian President alluded to the possibility of halting gas exports to the EU abruptly: "If they're going to shut us down in a month or two anyway, wouldn't it be better to stop now and go to countries that are reliable partners?
Putin’s Energy Masterclass: Exploiting the Hormuz Crisis to Break the EU’s Resolve
Vladimir Putin is threatening to cut remaining gas supplies to Europe at the exact moment when EU inventories are the most fragile in years. An honest masterclass in energy geopolitics.
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Where and with whom they will fight—well this is another story entirely.
their sovereign survival—and not just the one of the Iranian regime—will be at stake. At that point, an expansion of the war becomes inevitable as Ryhad and Baghdad (the first and second OPEC producers) suffer catastrophic daily economic damage.
continuing exports. However, this presents a strategic opportunity for Iran-aligned forces to deliver a tremendous blow to these regional U.S. partners by striking that specific infrastructure.
When regional oil producers will be faced with the risk of a total production halt,
and the real countdown may be even shorter than anticipated
Two further considerations must be mentioned.
When storage space will run out, some countries such as Saudi Arabia and UAE may still have the ability to divert some energy flows to alternative routes,
and particularly regional crude grades—for months, or potentially longer, depending on the course of the war.
Historically, storage tanks are rarely utilised above the 80% threshold; therefore, filling them to absolute maximum capacity may not be technically feasible,
reservoirs and production infrastructure.
At that point, in addition to the supply disruption at Hormuz, markets will face the prospect of a medium to long-term reduction in oil supply from the Middle East. This would bake a massive risk premium into oil prices—
🇮🇶Iraq
🇰🇼Kuwait
🇦🇪UAE
🇶🇦Qatar
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia
When these producers fill their storage tanks to capacity, there will be no other possibility but to curtail production. Depending on the geology of the field and the specific technologies implemented, shutting in wells could even permanently damage
Unable to store additional oil in strategic reserves and state-owned or privately-owned facilities, they will soon be forced to halt production at some of the largest oil fields on earth.
This will have disruptive consequences for following these countries:
This is, literally, the most important countdown in the world.
Oil exporters in the Persian Gulf, currently unable to export their hydrocarbon bounty, are all facing a dire short-term outlook.
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🚨An🇮🇷Iranian missile has just been intercepted by NATO forces over the skies of the🇹🇷Turkish city of Dortyol
🚢Dortyol hosts an oil export terminal and an LNG import facility
⚔️Ankara just stated that is reserve the right to respond to any hostile act towards our country
🚨🇺🇸Is the U.S. blackmailing Gulf states?
EGS Vol.18/26 is out!
Key Briefs in this Volume:
🛡️🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱The Hormuz Deadlock
🔥🇶🇦Qatar’s LNG Red Line
📉🇮🇶Iraq’s Storage Crisis
🚢🇷🇺🇺🇦Shadow War in the Med
🇪🇺EU storage gas crisis (again)
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rebrand.ly/ESGBS
It is very unlikely
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It is no surprise that TTF front-month gas prices—the EU price benchmark—surged by 39.5% yesterday and continue to climb by 37% this morning.
There’s a great deal of irony in the coincidence, but only if you believe that Iran struck Ras Laffan randomly.
a large volume of Russian gas exports through various pipelines. Today it is not, and the continent is almost entirely reliant on LNG supplies to balance the market. This is the very supply that can no longer flow from Qatar.
In parallel, EU gas storage levels dropped below the 30% threshold yesterday. This is more than eight percent below last year and just 1.5% above the levels seen on March 1, 2022, only days after Russia invaded Ukraine.
The paradox is that, at that time, the EU was still receiving
The Qatari Ministry of Defence has confirmed the strike, but state authorities are not disclosing the severity of the damage. This suggests we might be at the beginning of a prolonged period of reduced supplies coming from the Middle East’s largest exporter.
