Andrew Lyons

You guys deal with it less on the tropical side but there is a substantial amount of "book cooking" that occurs with local storm reports and warnings on the severe side. Some instances are egregious. I would champion this effort with the adequate political guardrails. Ntsb is a wonderful example.

Today is SPC's first explicit forecast of significant tornadoes possible (CIG1) in a tornado probability less than 10%. Based on radar data and environment a significant tornado may have occurred in parts of that forecast area. SPC could not have explicitly forecast this kind of scenario previously.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center's severe weather outlooks will be changing slightly next week.

Meteorologists Evan Bentley and Liz Leitman, our experts at SPC, provide an update about the new conditional intensity outlook.

Im working on some experimental ML guidance and let's just say it likes the same period for some interesting central US weather

The goose honks for thee

👀👀

The way this snatch and grab went it may not even be real, which would just be peak trump. Non zero chance they convinced Maduro to go on his own with help.

Shoutout to the No War president for starting a new war for "very legitimate" reasons.

Who could have possibly seen this coming!? /s

My 3 year old ponderosa lemon tree made its first fruit and wow it was a chonker! 15 Oz! We turned it into a nice cocktail for new years.

No university protections*

Yep... makes it even more fun for us volunteers with bi university protections. Not that those matter lol.

Maybe all of the people in leadership sending emails about how thankful they are for us showing up should do something about the fact we were all denied bonuses this year.

Time lapse from my Lumix also turned out pretty well for minimal setup

Last night still doesn't feel real. Visible aurora from 35° N over my backyard city lights. Insane!

Isn't there an ICP song about this?

Yeah just a few hours spent doing this haha. We estimate around a couple thousand man hours on the analysis alone.

Thanks man!

Thank you! Im hoping lot of people can find good nuggets of info scattered about in it. There's so much more that we couldn't include. Huge dataset!

Convective mode Classification of US tornadoes 2000-2021 Andrew Lyons AMS SLS 2022 - Google My Maps These maps show the estimated number(s) of tornadoes associated with different convective modes and storm types within 40 km of a point over a 10 year (decade) period. Data is derived from the Storm P...

This was a huge project over the last 4 years and we are going to continue adding on with more data. There are some other exciting articles and other ideas already in the works!

Some of the data is also in an interactive Google map here:

share.google/pFTfCEqbAMrl...

Another big finding was that QLCS events have changed drastically in the last decade and are not distributed uniformly. This is likely the result of dual pol implementation, different warning/reporting philosophy, changes in population/urban bullseye and some decades variability.

I was able to successfully recreate Smiths results using decadal KDEs and expand the sample to a large more representative climo window.

Some findings:

Dixie Alley is king for tornado occurance, but the Plains win for supercell mode!

The Ohio Valley is QLCS central but supercells not so much!

This is an update to the well known Smith et al., 2012 dataset. We added an additional 11,000 subjectively analyzed convective mode cases from 2012-2023, VROT, TDS depth/intensity, TDS motion, near-storm environment and other metadata.

Convective Mode Classification and Distribution of Contiguous United States Tornado Events from 2003–2023 Abstract Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms represent a significant threat to life and property in the United States annually. Approximately one thousand tornadoes, two-hundred being significant (F/EF-2+), are documented on average every year. Using archived radar and Storm Data storm report information, 21 912 tornado grid hours were manually analyzed for convective mode from the years 2003–2023. This dataset builds upon prior work by Smith et al. (2012) (hereafter S12) by more than doubling the sample size to produce a robust, multidecadal climatology of tornadoes by convective mode. Comparisons were made between tornado samples spanning 2003–2011 and 2012–2023 to assess changes in the frequency and spatial occurrence of tornadoes. Convective mode characterization consisted of a subjective analysis of WSR-88D imagery into three categories: 1) supercell, 2) quasi–linear convective system (QLCS), and 3) disorganized. Spatial climatologies of the different modes were performed and Kernel Density Estimate plots of events per decade were generated as in S12. The highest climatological frequency for tornadic supercells is reaffirmed to extend from KS and OK east-southeastward to MS and AL, while QLCS tornadoes are more frequent from the northern Gulf Coast states into the lower Ohio River Valley. Comparing the new sample to the original, QLCS tornado relative frequency increased by over 100%. Substantial variation in QLCS tornado occurrence may be due to non-meteorological factors such as dual polarization radar and different observing/reporting practices.

I was going to wait until the shutdown was over but the cat is out if the bag. My first journal article is now live!

Convective Mode Classification and Distribution of Contiguous United States Tornado Events from 2003–2023 in: Weather and Forecasting - Ahead of print share.google/M3ty4pVs5Tld...

Whatever dates or time ranges, and what metadata you want.

I can send you a sample of what it looks like via email.

Runs from 2003-2023.

Vrot data 2009-2023

Dualpol 2012-2023

Includes the subjective storm mode and a bunch of near storm environment info from mesoanalysis too.

Yep! Each tornado county segment has meta data. Its not every tornado report but its 85-90% Would be happy to subset and send your way!

And 3 more #restorefunding ralphies

Im tired man.

Im 7 days behind because mids. Heres 4 #shutdown sammys.

#shutdown sammy and #restorefunding ralphie for days 16 17 and 18 of ??

Im on mids so my captions are creatively limited but the dogs are cute.

#shutdown sammy day 15 of ?? Sammy is perplexed by the lack of ball and a functional government. But mostly ball.

#shutdown sammy and #restorefunding ralphie days 13 and 14 of ??

I just like this one because of the tounges.