Kevin Xu (Interconnected)

So is "democratic AI" deployed in an authoritarian country supposed to make that country more democratic?

Or will it be the other way around...?

It's like we live identical lives :)

There *is* one, and only one, upside to Trump running for a 3rd term

Washington Post -> People’s Daily

So if you want to really understand why DeepSeek does what it does and open source everything, start there. It's not a political statement, not to troll Stargate or Trump inauguration, or to help their quant fund's shorts on NVDA (though if that were the case, it'd be quite brilliant and savage).

They are also aware that Chinese firms have been taking for free lots of open source tech to advance, but they want to create their own, contribute, and prove that their tech is good enough to be taken for free by foreign firms -- some nationalism, some engineering pride.

Implicit in this "zeal" or "calling" is an acute awareness that no one in the west respects what they do because everything in China is stolen or created by cheating.

Most engineers are thrilled if their open source projects--a database, container registry--are used by a foreign company, especially a silicon valley one. They'd tack on free labor on top of already free software, to fix bugs, resolve issues, all day/night. It's all for the validation and approval.

In the Chinese open source community, there is this thing that I would call open source "zeal" or "calling" (开源情怀)

Two weeks ago, RedNote topped the download chart

Today, it's DeepSeek

We are still in January

If constraint is the mother of invention, then collective ignorance is the mother of many downloads

($) DeepSeek's Three Idiosyncratic Advantages This post is for our premium members only.

Thought @kevinxu.bsky.social's breakdown of Deepseek was the best starting point (and three weeks before the discourse, that's alpha) interconnect.substack.com/p/deepseeks-...

With TikTok blackout imminent, the app that shot to the top of the chart is...not IG, not YT, not Snap, but RED!

The irony is so rich in this one I don't even know where to start...

(Oh also, Lemon8 is another ByteDance app)

Thank you!

Lutnick: "The President has a very clear agenda for tariffs. And I think reciprocity is going to be a key topic for us. How you treat us, is how you expect to be treated."

Then Trump took over again, saying "they tax us, we tax them", re-emphasizing the word "reciprocal"

Almost just as important is when Trump handed the podium to Howard Lutnick (commerce secretary nominee) later in the presser, reporter asked Lutnick:

Do you see another trade deal with China coming?

But we spent hours and hours talking, and he is an amazing guy.

The press hates it when I say that but he's an amazing person"

[then moved on to a different question on the UnitedHealthcare CEO shooting.]

"You know because China and the United States can together solve all of the problems of the world, if you think about it, so it is very important. You know he was a friend of mine, I mean he was here for a long time, right in that spot except sitting in a very comfortable chair."

"But I have had, especially through letters, some very good conversations..."

[reporters shout more questions]

[reporters shout other questions]

"Just so you understand, he hasn't said one way or the other, because a lot of people are saying, he won't come, he will come, people think, he won't come, he will come. It's something we barely discussed...just about didn't discuss"

"I have had discussions with him, letters, etc. etc. at a very high level. You know, we've had a very good relationship until Covid... Covid (sigh) didn't end the relationship, but (shrug) it was a bridge too far for me...But if he'd like to come I'd certainly be..."

"I don't know if he would be at the inauguration, I mean I haven't spoken to him about it...I don't know that actually...I would say that if he'd like to come, I'd love to have him, but there's been nothing much discussed..."

Since no one has time to sit through an entire Trump presser, here's what he said yesterday re US-China, with context:

[context: the lead-in was Trump saying he did not invite Zelensky to the inauguration, then was asked whether he was disappointed that Xi will not be at the inauguration]

Lawfare Daily: Kevin Xu on the State of the AI Arms Race Between the U.S. and China What are China's AI ambitions? 

On Lawfare Daily, Kevin Frazier talked to @kevinxu.bsky.social about China’s AI ambitions, its current AI capacities, the likely effect of updated export controls on the nation’s AI efforts, and the different AI development strategies being deployed by the U.S. and China.

🙏🙏

Robin Zeng: CATL’s Prodigious Gambler As Europe reels from Northvolt’s bankruptcy, as Goldman Sachs writes off its $900 million wager to a big fat zero in this embarrassing failure, CATL chugs along.

Agree? Disagree?

Either way, Robin Zeng's story, this prodigious gambler, deserves to be told properly👇
interconnect.substack.com/p/robin-zeng...

What can we in the West learn from this?

Industrial policy works in 3 steps:

1. Subsidize/protect/spur startups
2. Stop protection, invite competition
3. Hopefully you get a Robin Zeng (or Wang Chuanfu) among your population who is as talented (and paranoid) as Andy Grove to rise above the ashes

What's more, favorable treatment was removed after a few years, foreign battery companies were invited back into China (LG, Samsung, Panasonic), so CATL had to prove its worth

Yes, it got a leg up initially, but wasn't coddled and protected indefinitely

Robin Zeng was also a rare breed...

IMHO, CATL could not have existed w/o China's exclusionary subsidies

Zeng started CATL as a spinout from TDK Corporations, b/c TDK was Japanese, thus couldn't qualify for gov't subsidies

Yet, that's not the end of the story

CATL still had to compete with 200+ domestic companies, like BYD etc

Zeng's story is nothing short of the classic rags to riches narrative we all worship

Yet, there are useful lessons to learn on how/why certain industrial policies succeeded via the CATL/Robin Zeng lens

These lessons are all the more timely given what has happened to Intel, Stellantis, Northvolt

Awww thank you for the shoutout Jeremy!

Oh and hello Blue Sky, first time here!

While we are here, some top takeaways on this piece I wrote

I spent many weeks researching the story of Robin Zeng and CATL--the powerful and politically divisive battery maker that is now #1 globally in market share