... as well as a Jan 11 note: #Iran is on the brink - but of what? research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/r...
18.02.2026 11:50
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... as well as a Jan 11 note: #Iran is on the brink - but of what? research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/r...
... an SEB EM Focus from January 27th: Navigating the Next #Iran Conflict.. research.sebgroup.com/api/attachme...
This follows my earlier SEB Geopolitical Update from Feb 11th: A quarantine strategy against #Iran offers a superior risk-return tradeoff compared to military strikes... research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/r...
My latest Geopolitical Update for SEB: Second round of #Iran-US talks provide little bearing on prospects for future conflict.
research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/r...
New SEB Geopolitcal Update: Behind the EU’s Ukraine Financing Wobbles Lies a Larger Question: Europe’s Commitment to Its Own Security research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/r...
New SEB EM Update: What’s in the US-Russian settlement plan for Ukraine? research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/r...
New SEB Conflict Update: The War on Ukraine’s Energy Infrastructure research.sebgroup.com/api/attachme...
FIFA awarding a "peace prize" to Trump would be so absolutely on-brand, a truly genius innovation.
New SEB EM Focus: The Crude Returns to Regime Change in Venezuela research.sebgroup.com/api/attachme...
New SEB EM Update: Can Trump push Putin to negotiate with the threat of sanctions?
research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/r...
For more see our latest reports on the conflict:
"The Russo-Ukrainian War in 2026," Sep 2nd 2025, SEB CEEMEA Outlook,
research.sebgroup.com/api/attachme...
"The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Droning Into 2026", SEB Conflict Update, Sep 16th 2025, research.sebgroup.com/api/attachme...
SEB Research's view remains that the war will continue throughout 2026, as both parties retain the capabilities, resources, and incentives to keep fighting.
Ukrainian bonds have rallied to their highest levels since mid-August and Polymarket bets on a ceasfire occurring in 2025 increasing to 19% and a fifty-fifth probability of it occurring in 2026.
3) As the US equivocates on sending cruise missiles to Ukraine and reports of a Budapest meeting between Putin and Trump, markets are repricing the probability of a ceasefire...
This has resulted in blackouts and heavy damage to critical facilities, just temperatures drop and nights get longer.
2) During the past week Ukraine experienced the largest number of non-intercepted ballistic missile strikes since the war started, and Russia has in recent weeks ramped up attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure ahead of winter...
Diesel inflation is also seeing higher momentum, albeit less so. A limited weight in the overall CPI basket implies aggregate inflation effects still remain muted.
Three key events in the Russia-Ukraine conflict last week:
1) Ukraine's strikes on Russian energy facilities are starting to show up in the data. As per the latest weekly CPI data, gasoline prices are increasing at a month-on-month annualized rate of 48.4%, the highest rate since 2020.
... or will it drift into the sphere so far populated by institutional outcasts like Haiti, Syria, Somalia, and Zimbabwe. Or can Turkey, just like China, carve out a niche where despite questionable institutional outcomes, it still attracts foreign investors?
This puts Turkey in a relatively unflattering group of countries including Algeria, Iran, Lebanon, Russia, and Uzbekistan. So what is the direction of travel? Will it move towards more standard EM institutional spaces of frontier countries like Egypt, Jordan, and Kenya...?
Recent institutions data from Varieties of Democracy paint a rather divergent picture. Turkey regularly scores abysmally low in terms of Rule of Law but around average in terms of property rights.
Amid the Turkish government's crackdown on private business and investors' bets on how long the central bank can retain its rate-setting autonomy, it's useful to periodically ask where Turkey is on the instutitional plane.
Some context to my comments in today's Bloomberg article on the ongoing purges in Turkey www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Indonesia to become the second foreign military to operate Chinese jets after Pakistan www.scmp.com/news/china/m...
New SEB EM Focus: Unresolved rivalries and military imbalances raise demand for Chinese arms in the Middle East research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/r...
Some comments on Putin, Trump, snakes, and hooves research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/r...
"Peace in Turkey? Not So Fast" - my initial thoughts on today's momentous declaration by Öcalan research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/r...
I learnt a lot from my conversation with Sergei Guriev on what's really going on in the Russian economy, and so will you. My latest podcast for the FT's Economics Show, standing in for the great @soumayakeynes.ft.com as host. www.ft.com/content/c68d...
In this week's SEB EM Monitor we cover the Scramble for Ukraine marketsresearch.sebank.se/api/attachme...
Like other economists I'm being asked to comment on Trump tariffs.
We should do so - it's our job.
But first we should make the point stated eloquently here by @alanbeattie.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/c26b...