DaggaRoosta

Well, it finally happened. RIP Barking Carnival

Yes, this is the standard economist line I'm responding to. It assumes all techonology is the same, a variable in a formula. But the scale of AI disruption threatens to be qualitatively different, causing prolonged disruption poised to explode politically. You're comparing ocean waves to a tsunami

Higher productivity raises aggregate demand, yes. But in the medium run, how much *human labor* will be needed to fulfill excess demand? Which jobs will humans perform better than AI in twenty years? Will entire categories of job skills become devalued, causing prolonged dislocation and discontent?

The cotton gin got rid of nasty cotton cleaning work. Did the cotton gin also take the (better!) jobs in a textile mill created by the cotton boom? No. That's economic progress.

AI aims to take current work *and* the boom jobs. The better AI gets, the less leverage people have. It's not the same

The formulation that technological innovation = economic progress has always worked until now, yes, but it's a lazy assumption. Technological innovation before AI was narrow in scope. Cotton gins couldn't do any of the new jobs created by the cotton boom. AI threatens to soak up the new jobs too

This is an issue that economists fond of AI really need to reconsider. Robots who can replace workers and invalidate their job skills are not a boon to the workers they're replacing, *unless the robots are owned by the workers*.

Are we doing robot socialism? NO? Then it's a bad development!

Seeing a lot of economist-types dunking on this - and rightfully so, in the abstract.

But the context here is we're talking about automation *that replaces someone at their job* and yeah getting laid off and having your job experience completely devalued would create a lot more work for you!

Look, Dems, this is the way to do it. Be the anti-Trump. Have some principles that you stand behind even if it's politically untrendy. Show people how their media environment is a smokescreen. Bring it back to core values. Show backbone, be a leader, and you'll harvest an enthusiasm gap in November.

New: A Houston woman is suing Tesla in Harris County, alleging that her Cybertruck, while using Tesla's "Full Self-Driving mode" tried to drive the car off of a bridge. Here is the dashcam footage provided by her lawyers: www.chron.com/culture/arti...

For the same $6 trillion cost, you could crush child poverty with a child allowance and free childcare, fix unemployment insurance, do paid family, sick & medical leave, massively boost ACA subsidies, and eliminate child uninsurance with Medicare for Kids.

I see the political appeal of this but that's because Americans are bad at math and don't grasp public accounting.

The private sector undersupplies us in a handful of sectors - housing, health care, education, child/elder care. Provide those services in bulk and at cost and you can raise my taxes

Tehran's roughly the size of Chicago and its utility capacity was already very strained. If water service goes, this could spiral catastrophically, endangering millions.

That means at least a million refugees flooding into Iraq, probably more, and Iraq has no capacity to care for them

All of these dudes watched Trump BS his way through everything and now they're Leroy-Jenkins-ing a war with literally no knowledge of the most basic relevant facts. Their war plan is a "I slept at a Holiday Inn Express last night" commercial

This is maybe the wildest, most dumbfounding part of the AI run-up: Google deciding to spend an asston of money to give people a summary of the info they were looking for without clicking any links or ads...thus undermining the whole damn Internet *and* their own core business model. Great job!

*Most* large oil and gas infrastructure is like this. The massive Ras Laffan LNG port in Qatar is shut down; it will not only stay completely closed for duration of hostilities, but starting it back up will take an extra month or so. Refineries are also slow to wind down and back up

I never suggest anyone take short options because the downside risk is so high...but this feels like a ripe opportunity (for those so-inclined).

The oil price shock won't end until Iran stops sending drones to attack Arab oil assets. Trump ain't in charge of that. It's not clear ANYONE is

And it’s not just the ships, it’s the *oil production, refining and ahipping facilities*. The oil won’t automatically flow as soon as the drones stop flying, the longer this goes on the more rebuilding will be required first

Good thread. LLMs are like taking the brain's memory storage and retrieval unit, digitizing it, and exposing it to absolute scads of data. But it's still that one narrow function of the brain. Claude has no anxiety because anxiety sits upstream of hormones, emotions, and fight-or-flight instinct

Point/Counterpoint This War Will Shut Off 20% of the Global Petroleum Supply for A Month and Send the Economy into a Stagflationary Tailspin vs. No It Won’t Published: March 26, 2003

While we're spending American capital trying to figure out how best to make middle class job skills obsolete, the Chinese are making widely beneficial technological innovation the norm. Charging 200+ miles of range in ~5 minutes is wild

naw that's what a non-czech Texan who occasionally stopped off in a roadside czech stop but calls every pastry they sell "kolache" when that's clearly a klobasnik. "Pig in a blanket" is acceptable though

Second, the DoD is threatening to make its contractors - basically, everyone in tech - divest from Anthropic. If they follow through, Anthropic would default on its debt, causing a cascade of defaults across the AI sector.

These decisionmakers clearly don't grasp basic cause-and-effect! It's bad!

Trump made two IMMENSE mistakes this week.

First, he attacked Iran, and they're striking back at oil infrastructure. We've given the Gulf states costly Patriot missiles but no point defense against drones. Now markets see that 20+% of oil supply will be shelved not just weeks but indefinitely \1

Six data-driven reasons Texas could actually go blue in 2026 Democratic candidate James Talarico might be the best chance in recent history to flip a U.S. Senate seat Republicans have held for 65 years

Lot of uncertainty but answered in part in final section here

www.gelliottmorris.com/p/six-data-d...

in this house we believe the Wesley Hunt campaign was fully bankrolled and staffed by Fox and Disney

Yes this is wild and stupid and very bad but also? very funny

Indeed, this is incredibly fucking annoying. Just put a teeny tiny piece of your own ass on the line and tell us what you honestly think his actual plan is. Is he doing favors for oil sheiks? Being led around by the nose by Bibi? Tell us!

Pretty ballsy (read: stupid) to say this the day after bombing a girl's school. Minimal adherence to rules of engagement should've prevented that

Kier Starmer is such a fucking loser

"I pray in this holy month you find peace and respect for yourself" goes so damn hard