Taking a deep breath the Jan/Feb swing in hiring looks like mostly noise, but we are in a very low hiring environment reflecting our immigration policy + elevated uncertainty. The UR has been stable at 4.4% for 6m so this is not a falling off the cliff report, more a labor market with no mojo
A picture of PEW poll on global attitude survey, saying the % who rate the morality and ethics of people in their country as good vs bad, where the US has the worst rankings and Canada the best
Americans: we live in a fallen state—embroiled by sin, cheating, lying, and evil. You cannot trust anyone, not even those who claim to know you best
Canadians: I love my neighbors and my friends!
Love and share that sentiment, one of Talarico's great speeches was when he lauded the toughness of red state Dems who know that change takes relentless work
FT comments section this morning - saying what everyone else is thinking, right?
New Fed paper out on the history of central bank independence—how it came to be, what it actually means legally, and what presidents, Fed chairs, and Congress really said about it over the decades.
Fair warning: It's a deep dive into historical archives, which means ... it's dense!
A line graph showing NSF grant awards made through 2/27/26 for fiscal year 2026 compared with grant awards for fiscal years 2021-2025.
NSF Update (Awards through 2/27/26)
Directorates to follow
1/10
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has all but stopped since yesterday.
Read the @financialtimes.com Economics editor, Sam Fleming's analysis of what the impact the war in Iran will have on the global economy
www.ft.com/content/31bf...
We are currently seeking organizational and individual support for our FY27 Funding Recommendation Letter and hope you will join us in asking for more robust funding for BLS. We are asking Congress to approve $754 million for BLS in FY27 which is a 5% increase over FY26. These funds will allow BLS to train new staff, implement delayed modernization efforts, and sustain response rates in multiple programs. We are accepting sign-ons from both organizations and individuals no later than COB Wednesday March 4. Please select the appropriate link below to read the full letter and sign-on.
Care about Americans, employment, earnings, consumer prices, your local or our national economy?
@usbls.bsky.social empowers us to better recognize these & make decisions.
Consider signing onto Friends of BLS's new letter to Congress re its budget.
And spread the word.
No votes on ANYTHING untill we vote on the War Powers Resolution.
I have never seen a line so long for voting at my local Texas library as I saw today 👏🔥
The DOJ probe of the Federal Reserve is playing out behind closed doors
The Fed, in sealed proceedings, is asking a judge to quash the subpoenas, which could reduce or eliminate its obligation to respond
via @cryanbarber.bsky.social
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
I am so grateful my beloved Dad who dedicated his life to designing policy to efficiently and effectively serving people passed before all of this
Outgoing Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic signals greater concern about Fed independence than the more anodyne statements typically offered by his colleagues when the subject comes up
He says there's an ongoing threat and the outcome is genuinely uncertain www.atlantafed.org/news-and-eve...
New research with @aaronsojourner.org of the @upjohninstitute.bsky.social posted on @northstarpolicy.org's blog. We find that Operation Metro Surge caused declines in employees working, hours worked, and businesses open, leading to an estimated $106 million wage loss for Twin Cities workers.
Henceforth, I will be describing the way that U.S. men’s hockey spectacularly squandered good will, brand recognition, and fan loyalty as “pulled a Target.”
They pulled a Target.
A photo of Fed governor Lisa Cook with Julia Coronado and Courtney Shupert
Just a group of macro gals thinking about the future
@courtneyshupert.bsky.social
Fed Governor Cook delivers yet another substantive speech on AI & its impact on macro dynamics & monetary policy—MP is not well suited to address labor market disruption, higher productivity could raise the neutral rate but higher inequality could lower it
#NABE2026 @nabe-econ.bsky.social
Chicago Fed President @goolsbee.bsky.social strikes an optimistic tone on the US economy, but notes inflation has gotten stuck—additional rate cuts hinge on seeing actual progress that inflation is heading back to 2%
#NABE2026 @nabe-econ.bsky.social
New US tariffs come in at lower 10% rate: “The move added to confusion surrounding U.S. trade policy, with no explanation offered in the notice for why the lower rate had been used.” Via Reuters
#Fed Gov Waller: « If employment data support the idea of an improvement in the labor market that continued in Feb, along with additional progress toward 2% inflation, that could result in my outlook turning a bit more positive and my view of appropriate monetary policy may tilt toward a pause… »
Back to tariffs…Trump had a legislative majority & could have passed his trade agenda in a sustainable way. Instead bluster & bullying leaves a policy in shambles with no domestic/international capital left heading into the midterms. Running a company this way would lead to bankruptcy…oh wait 🤔
It’s strange no since state polls show Crockett ahead?
*TRUMP SAYS HE WILL INCREASE GLOBAL TARIFFS TO 15% FROM 10%
*TRUMP: SIGNING ORDER IMPOSING 10% GLOBAL TARIFF IMMEDIATELY UNDER SECTION 122
CNN: Apparently the breakfast had been going well. Then Trump became enraged. He started ranting about the decision, not only calling it a disgrace, but started attacking the courts at one point saying: these f’ing courts
Adding maximum friction to the global trading system is a well worn path to a sustained productivity boom...
The price deflator for the federal sector surged 15.6% q/q saar in Q4 but was elevated in H1 as well--when the govt pays employees who don't work that shows up as a higher prices/less real output
Core PCE inflation is stickier than CPI reflecting pressure in health care and other services. The diffusion index shows a broader base of price pressures. We expect little progress toward 2% this year, a challenge for the incoming Fed chair w/ an FOMC starting to talk hikes at the hawkish edges
Another big widening in the trade balance in Dec as imports jump--Atlanta Fed was tracking an unlikely combo of strong investment + falling imports. This helps reconcile that tension and will take Q4 GDP tracking down another good notch
