Global imbalances: grandeur and a ‘nothingburger’ - OMFIF Global imbalances emerged as a hot topic before and after the 2008 financial crisis when wide gaps between surplus and deficit

Macron's G7 Presidency is emphasizing concrete commitments to tackle global imbalances and so is the Trump Admin for its G20 Presidency. We've seen this movie before.

Expect lots of pomp & a nothingburger.👇

www.omfif.org/2026/03/glob...

US Treasury Foreign Exchange Report: overhauled and improved - OMFIF The US Treasury released its latest Foreign Exchange Report (FXR) in January 2026, receiving little fanfare as the report broke no new ground.

US Treasury's late January FX Report was on its face a snooze. No Sominex needed. BUT, it was actually an improved & richer report with consequential new findings & analysis. The FX community & officialdom should pay attention. I explain why below.👇

www.omfif.org/2026/02/us-t...

No easy answers to questions facing Kevin Warsh - OMFIF Kevin Warsh understands the Federal Reserve and monetary policy, and he undoubtedly has the credentials to be the next Fed chair.

The day wouldn't be complete without yet another profound & insightful Kevin Warsh commentary. All kidding aside, Warsh's life is going to be very complicated and not just because of Trump.👇👇👇

www.omfif.org/2026/02/no-e...

Termites are slowly feasting away at the foundations of the dollar’s dominance Chomp chomp chomp

Thanks to Robin Wigglesworth and FTAV.

www.ft.com/content/0933...

This is a gratuitous and mean-spirited comment that is not worthy of a Secretary of the Treasury and the dignity of the office.

Putin is wary of facing Russia’s ruined economic future - OMFIF Most analysts rightly focus on geopolitical explanations. Humiliated by the demise of the Soviet Union and the loss of the cold war, Putin wants to restore the ‘Russian Empire’ and bolster his country...

Ending Putin's barbaric war against Ukraine will expose Russia's economic ruin. That may be another reason for Putin to keep on fighting.👇

www.omfif.org/2026/01/puti...

A thoughtful and important post.

Outlook 2026: Foreign exchange markets will be less exciting than in 2025 - OMFIF Predicting foreign exchange markets is a fool’s errand, but it has nonetheless sprouted a cottage industry with analysts even audaciously offering pinpoint numerical forecasts conjuring up the fallacy...

Predicting FX markets is a fool's errand but here are 6 2026 FX observations.

www.omfif.org/2026/01/outl...

Why Haven’t Trump’s Tariffs Had a Bigger Impact?

Congrats to Gita Gopinath and Brent Neiman on their outstanding work!

www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/b...

You wanna read a new (hopefully improved, thanks to very helpful comments from a bunch of very smart colleagues) version of paper called "The Political Economy of Shitcoins"? Of course you do. @tompepinsky.com & I are at your service.

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

There are precious few organizations, let alone ones that exist in political milieu, that couldn't benefit from reform.

But one shouldn't give succor to those who would throw the baby out with the bathwater.

Once again, there is exactly <no> chance of the RMB rivaling or replacing either the dollar (or the euro) as the dominant international reserve currency, because Xi Jinping & 🇨🇳 policymakers are totally unwilling to reverse their macroeconomic policies to make this possible:

bsky.app/profile/mcop...

Predictions for 2026: (i) the US will outgrow everyone, but the Dollar will fall; (ii) the Euro zone will resume its slide towards deflation; (iii) EM currencies will rally as the G10 EM-ifies; and (iv) the debasement trade will continue to roar ahead...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/prediction...

Very well said!

Ukraine needs help in funding its military campaign as well as the basic costs of running a govt -- paying soldiers, pensions etc -- w/out resorting to money printing/hyperinflation.

Trump is wrong to oppose the reparation loan.

Europe will look lame, weak & pathetic if it doesn't go ahead now.

👍👍In the face of the greatest challenge to European security in decades, if Europe can't find a way to make the reparation loan, it will prove that Trump is totally right in stating that Europe is WEAK! It will put Ukraine at the mercy of the Trump Admin, a very bad outcome.

Due to unavoidable scheduling issues, this virtual session will now take place on Friday, December 12 at 10 a.m., EST Please sign up.

omfif.org/meetings/dec...

December FOMC meeting: the outlook for US monetary policy - OMFIF Donald Kohn, senior fellow in the economic studies program at the Brookings Institution, previously vice chair of the Federal Reserve, and Dennis Lockhart, who was president and CEO of the Federal Res...

To discuss the FOMC outcomes and US monetary/financial policy, Don Kohn, former Fed Vice-Chair, and Dennis Lockhart, ex-Atlanta Fed head, will join OMFIF on Thursday, December 11 at 10 am EST.

Please sign up.👇

www.omfif.org/meetings/dec...

Japanese foreign exchange policy riddled in contradictions - OMFIF The Japanese authorities are back at it. A new prime minister and finance minister are huffing and puffing about yen weakness and jawboning markets – including with threats to intervene. We’ve seen th...

Japanese MOF FX policy seems riddled in inconsistency.

Jawboning & intervention — doing something for sake of doing something, rather than problem solving for super weak yen.

www.omfif.org/2025/12/japa...

There is absolutely no defense for the way the US is treating Ukraine. The US should step up with financing and military support. But Europe should extend the reparation loan.

Given where we are the real issue is not the US.

It is whether Europe will sign off on the "reparation" loan.

Europe claims to be strong & united. Yet with its physical security challenged by Russia, it can't find the wherewithal to provide the loan due to Belgian financial concerns. Go figure.

Absolutely spot on from Jay!

Ausgezeichnet! Bravo Kanzler!

An absolutely disgraceful embarrassment. Others should indeed express objections to US and boycott if needed.

Back to the future for America’s G20 tenure - OMFIF Thoughts on a US G20 presidency under Trump in 2026

Despite the disgraceful treatment of S. Africa & G20 by USA, the moribund G20 is not dead. Ironically, the US 2026 Presidency could revive a slimmed down G20. Here's a roadmap.👇Will Trump seize it?

Thanks to Global Governance Project/G20 Research Group.

www.omfif.org/2025/11/back...

Huge thanks to Jay for these kind words!

It’s time for China to let the renminbi appreciate sharply - OMFIF The renminbi is hugely undervalued. This is an impediment to tackling China’s enormous current account surplus and the leadership’s stated desire of boosting domestic demand.

Brad Setser & I argue the Chinese RMB is hugely undervalued & call on authorities to let it rise sharply. That's needed to tackle the excessive/massive current account surplus & incentivize domestic demand. 👇

Thanks to Brad for joining OMFIF's page.

www.omfif.org/2025/11/its-...

Vlad Rashkovan, Ukraine’s IMF rep & former deputy NBU governor, joins OMFIF/me. We discuss Ukraine's current economic situation, military financing, energy & budget needs; IMF relations & program discussions; and ‘reparation’ loan.

www.omfif.org/videos/ukrai...

Outstanding explainer from Jay Shambaugh.

Trump/Xi truce is welcome, but decoupling and fundamental rifts remain - OMFIF President Donald Trump declared his summit with Xi Jinping a ‘12’ on a scale of one to 10, while fawning over Xi as a great leader. Xi seemed far more reticent and stoic.The summit presented a hefty s...

Trump/Xi Summit. A temporary pause amid decoupling & fragmentation. More tension on its way. Fundamental economic problems are not being addressed. They need a better way amid discord to speak to one another & keep a lid on pressures.

www.omfif.org/2025/11/trum...