Chiara Vargiu

5/5 Key takeaway: Even events without explicit partisan cues can be filtered through partisan lenses. At least in the highly polarized US context, a formally non-partisan act of violence can still generate partisan reactions.

4/5 Key takeaway: Violence itself did not trigger retaliatory partisan aggression. Shifts occurred after Mangione's arrest and the event was reframed in public discourse.

(While we cannot directly test the role of exposure to a moralizing narrative, results are consistent with its influence)

3/5 We also tested alternative explanations.

Anti-establishment orientations (especially Need for Chaos) and poorer self-reported health are associated with greater support for partisan violence after the event - but these effects are more modest than the partisan differences we observe.

2/5 Support for partisan violence increased among Democrats following the arrest (relative to Republicans), while Republicans showed little change. The effect is modest, but consistent across model specifications.

1/5 Immediately after the assassination, Democrats became less supportive of partisan violence compared to Republicans. But after Mangione’s arrest, when a moralized narrative about his actions gained traction, that pattern reversed.

🚨 New piece forthcoming @poqjournal.bsky.social w/ @alessandronai.bsky.social

Does violence beget more violence? We answer this question using the #Mangione case (assassination + arrest) as a natural experiment.

Results ⬇️

Accepted manuscript: tinyurl.com/4mwh6rt6
Data & code: osf.io/y5mn3

Here's a link to the #OpenAccess article by @valentimvicente.bsky.social,
@eliasdinas.bsky.social & @dziblatt.bsky.social -

cup.org/4pIYRvH

⏰ Last day to send your abstract (max 500 words) to our @ecpr.bsky.social Joint Session workshop on 𝖍𝖔𝖘𝖙𝖎𝖑𝖊 𝖕𝖔𝖑𝖎𝖙𝖎𝖈𝖘 (U. Innsbruck, 7-10 April)!

Submit here by midnight: tinyurl.com/yjcaa3ay

AI chatbots can persuade voters to change their minds Conversations with AI can sway people’s political views. Concerningly, a chatbot’s facts are not always accurate, especially when it supports right-wing positions.

🤖 AI chatbots can persuade voters 🗳️

@cvargiu.bsky.social and I were recently asked to review a piece for @nature.com, now out, and wrote a short digest about it

TLDR: chatting with a LLM can change your mind, even if facts provided are not always accurate

check it out 👇

#chatbots #persuasion

⏱️ One more week to apply to our #ecprjs26 workshop on hostile communication styles! Come join us in Innsbruck to discuss the shady business of hostile politics 😶‍🌫️

Send your abstract by 10 Dec (link below).

@ecpr.bsky.social
@ecpr-polcom.bsky.social

We welcome scholars from *all career stages* and if you have any questions, do not hesitate to reach out!

The Rise of Hostile Communication Styles and their Consequences for the Functioning of Modern Democracies European Consortium for Political Research

🎬 Excited to co-direct a #ecprjs26 Workshop w/ J. Dedeigne on hostile communication styles 🤬

Working on uncivil 🙄, intolerant 🙅🏻‍♀️, or violent 🤜 political rhetoric and its effects across countries, contexts, or media? Join us!

📅 Submit by 10 Dec: tinyurl.com/yjcaa3ay

We are finally out!! Thanks to my fantastic co-authors, the anonymous reviewers, and @thejop.bsky.social editorial team. Publishing my first registered report has been an incredibly instructive and rewarding experience 🤓

Much has been said about political incivility, but does it actually exist? 🤷‍♀️

Radical right accommodation really does not work.

New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk

doi.org/10.31235/osf...

On my way there right now 😘

Thanks @hayleekelsall.bsky.social but it’s “the other Chiara” who’s awesome in this case (don’t worry, happens all the time) 😂 @chiaravalli.bsky.social congrats, wouldn’t want to be confused for anybody else 😘

🚨Pre-print alert🚨

Research shows citizens in many Western democracies are increasingly affectively polarized––they feel warm toward their own party but quite cold toward opposing parties.

But how does it feel to “feel warmly”?
@katharinalawall.bsky.social, @mtsakiris.bsky.social & I asked.
🧵1/8

⚡️⚡️⚡️
Interested in…
…negativity, incivility, intolerance?
…comparative and experimental data on the perception and effects of attack politics?
… personality, contextual influences?
Get all this with a discount!
📚📚📚🤩🤩🤩

📕 *The Psychology of Attack Politics* is coming out next month.

With @alessandronai.bsky.social and @lukotto.bsky.social we discuss how negativity isn't always what you think 🤔 and why some of us may even enjoy it 😈

Pre-order now with 20% off (paperback ~£32).
Discount code + link in the flyer 👇

Looking forward to present tomorrow our paper with @cvargiu.bsky.social about shifts in support for #PoliticalViolence driven by the #Mangione attack

Come say hi if you are in Ghent or thereabouts!

➡️ preprint: osf.io/preprints/os...

New piece at @cogitatiopag.bsky.social w L Aaldering @kgattermann.bsky.social @fredericofs.bsky.social D Garzia

The capper of our “dark leaders” trilogy, we show that negative traits matter the most

Come for the cool theory, stay for the #GameofThrones experiment treatments

➡️ tinyurl.com/mvn7np2e

Pundits are - in vain - looking to economics and politics when trying to explain Trump's behavior.

But, in reality, the central place to look if we want to understand Trump and his policies is this:

The psychology of dominance.

🧵(1/5)

🚨 New piece at @polbehavior.bsky.social w @chiaravalli.bsky.social @timgravelle.bsky.social @mikemikemed.bsky.social Céline Murri & Beatrice Eugster

TLDR: In 🇨🇭 visible mosques increases support for the #FarRight in elections and in referenda (~ +3-5%)

Paper: tinyurl.com/5xk6ydv9
Data: osf.io/27pkj

Prompted by news of prosecutors seeking death penalty for Luigi #Mangione, we share findings from a natural experiment based on his case.

We find that Mangione's arrest led to a small rise in support for #PoliticalViolence among Dems.

📝 Preprint: osf.io/preprints/os...
📊 Data & code: osf.io/y5mn3/

So cool to see this taking shape 🥹 Thanks to @alessandronai.bsky.social & @lukotto.bsky.social for bringing me on board, it’s been great working on this together!

🚨 New paper out in @electoralstudies.bsky.social w Patrick van Erkel & @lindabos.bsky.social

What drives changes in radical partisanship over time?

TLDR: #NeedforChaos and #ExpressivePartisanship drive radicalisation & slow down de-radicalisation

Paper tinyurl.com/mr46r35u
Data 🇳🇱 osf.io/ma6u7

Why Americans can't agree on social equality - The Amsterdam Centre for Conflict Studies The gap between Democrats and Republicans on social equality deepens. Diversity vs. tradition fuels polarisation, while extreme views and us-vs-them thinking threaten American democracy.

Why can’t Americans agree on the concept of equality? And how did Trump’s election victory influence this? Chiara Vargiu examines the starkly different ways Republicans and Democrats view social equality and how these differences put American democracy at risk.

First an intro by PIs Abbey Steele and Alessandro Nai.
Followed by:
- Conversation with Enilda Jiménez on resisting political violence in Colombia.
- Panel on aggressive rhetoric and its consequences.
- Keynote by Leonie Huddy (Stony Brook) on news sharing as expressive partisanship.