Annette Idler's Avatar

Annette Idler

@annetteidler

Associate Professor @UniofOxford, Director @GS_Oxford, former Visiting Scholar @Harvard, #globalsecurity #armedconflict #illiciteconomy author #BorderlandBattles http://tinyurl.com/y2q www.annetteidler.com

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11.12.2024
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Latest posts by Annette Idler @annetteidler

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Is the US arming Mexican cartels? Eighty percent of weapons seized from Mexican cartels come from the US, according to Mexico’s defence minister.

In this @aljazeera.com explainer, I discuss how Mexican cartels obtain weapons & why most firearms seized in Mexico originate in the US. Addressing the problem requires treating southbound gun trafficking as seriously as northbound flows of drugs & people.Read more:
www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/03...

04.03.2026 23:08 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Mort d'El Mencho : la "décapitation" des cartels de la drogue, stratégie à double tranchant La mort dimanche du puissant narcotrafiquant mexicain Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, alias El Mencho, peut être perçue comme une victoire pour le gouvernement de la présidente Claudia Sheinbaum et pour…

Spoke with France 24 on El Mencho. Decapitation strategies can weaken organisations but also trigger fragmentation and renewed violence while trafficking networks remain resilient. Long-term impact depends on addressing demand.
Here's the article: www.france24.com/fr/am%C3%A9r...

27.02.2026 17:58 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Hybrid Event
Join us for a field-based discussion on the Sinjar Peace Agreement & the challenges facing Iraq’s Yazidi community.

Speaker: Giorgi Gigauri, Visiting Fellow
🗓 3 March 2026, 5 PM
📍 Allen & Overy Room, Pembroke College & Online

Register: forms.office.com/Pages/Respon...

19.02.2026 12:47 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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México: Por que a morte de chefão do tráfico 'El Mencho' não vai acabar com a violência dos cartéis - BBC News Brasil Morte de Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes é vista como triunfo do governo no combate à influência e ao poder de seus cartéis de drogas, mas como isso afetará o império criminoso que ele deixa para trás?

Spoke w/ BBC News on El Mencho. Removing leaders doesn't dismantle broader crime systems. These groups are embedded in transnational supply chains that adapt to disruption. Without addressing demand and structural drivers, violence and trafficking will persist. Read here: www.bbc.com/portuguese/a...

27.02.2026 17:42 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Who was ‘El Mencho’? What drug lord’s killing means for Mexico The US-backed operation that killed 'El Mencho' sparks a wave of violence across the country.

I was interviewed by @aljazeera.com on El Mencho's killing in #Mexico. My key message: Kingpin arrests matter symbolically, but globally networked illicit supply chains are built to withstand leadership loss. @socsci.ox.ac.uk
Article: www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/...

26.02.2026 13:48 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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NEW EVENT! Colombia’s armed conflict in regional and global context

What are the prospects & obstacles for peace in Colombia?
Dr @annetteidler.bsky.social explores security challenges and what to expect from the upcoming election

🗓️ Mar 18, 5-6.30 PM
🗺️ Cambridge, CB3 9DP
🔗 bit.ly/4qVgSY2

25.02.2026 18:26 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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Spoke w/ @channel4news.bsky.social about El Mencho’s capture & unsettling retaliatory violence. The arrest is important, but global drug supply chains are resilient to leadership losses. Without reducing demand, underlying structures remain. Interview (watch @3:40): www.youtube.com/watch?v=bW4G...

24.02.2026 19:04 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Looking fwd to launching our webinar series tmw! @pembrokeoxford.bsky.social

24.02.2026 14:05 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Expert Comment: What US action in Venezuela could unleash — Dr Annette Idler, Associate Professor in Global Security at the Blavatnik School of Government and Director of the Global Security Programme at Oxford’s Pembroke College, explores US actions in

I wrote for @ox.ac.uk on the US–Venezuela situation. One overlooked paradox: actions justified as fighting drug trafficking are likely to benefit it, by fragmenting authority and deepening instability. Read here: www.ox.ac.uk/news/2026-01...
#GlobalSecurity #Venezuela #LatinAmerica

07.01.2026 15:28 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Radio Wales Breakfast - With Dot Davies and Catrin Heledd - BBC Sounds Everything you need to know as you wake up.

"It is so important that the international community really makes clear that we can't have unilaterial military action without any consent from others."

Listen to Prof Annette Idler speaks on US-Venezuela from 11:48 👇
https://ow.ly/bkhW50XSVzH

07.01.2026 15:01 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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Radio Wales Breakfast - With Dot Davies and Catrin Heledd - BBC Sounds Everything you need to know as you wake up.

Shared further analysis on BBC Radio Wales Breakfast on US intervention in VEN. Key contradiction: Rubio says this was a limited law-enforcement operation. Reality: 15,000 troops, 150 aircraft, major military build-up. Listen (11:48 - 16:29): www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
#Venezuela #GlobalSecurity

07.01.2026 14:39 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Associate Prof @annetteidler.bsky.social explores the potential impact of US interventons in #Venezuela on stability in the region and worldwide. 👇

06.01.2026 16:42 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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EUA 'governarem' a Venezuela não tem respaldo legal, a era das tutelas terminou com a descolonização, diz professora de Oxford - BBC News Brasil Avaliação é da professora Annette Idler, professora da Universidade de Oxford, que viu na ação do fim de semana uma "escalada extraordinária" e que cria precedente perigoso no mundo.

I spoke with BBC News Brazil about #Venezuela. Removing Maduro may be welcomed by many, but the method sets a dangerous precedent. It blurs the line between law enforcement and military aggression and risks a return to unilateral interventionism.
www.bbc.com/portuguese/a...

05.01.2026 20:09 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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I spoke with BBC World News about the rapidly evolving situation in Venezuela. Removing an illegitimate ruler does not automatically produce stability, and coercion without legitimacy risks turning crisis into prolonged insecurity.
#Venezuela #GlobalSecurity
Watch: www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACzO...

05.01.2026 17:54 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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EUA 'governarem' a Venezuela não tem respaldo legal, a era das tutelas terminou com a descolonização, diz professora de Oxford - BBC News Brasil Avaliação é da professora Annette Idler, professora da Universidade de Oxford, que viu na ação do fim de semana uma "escalada extraordinária" e que cria precedente perigoso no mundo.

"The era of protectorates and trustees ended with decolonisation".

Professor Annette Idler provides an assessment of the US military's operation in Venezuela.👇
https://ow.ly/OyqU50XRXWx

05.01.2026 15:30 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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We're not at war with Venezuela but Cuba has a 'huge problem' Maduro and his wife have been charged with 'narco-terrorism' after being captured in a night time raid by US forces

“The removal of Maduro creates not clarity but a dangerous power vacuum." -- Prof @annetteidler.bsky.social talked to @theipaper.com

"Without Venezuelan ownership and regional backing, any attempt at US-led governance risks rapid destabilisation rather than transition.”

inews.co.uk/news/explosi...

04.01.2026 17:11 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
Do you trust Donald Trump with Venezuela?
Do you trust Donald Trump with Venezuela? YouTube video by LBC

On LBC discussing the shocking US military intervention in #Venezuela. This goes far beyond Venezuela: it raises major legal and security risks, sets dangerous precedents, and lacks a clear plan for what comes next.
#GlobalSecurity #InternationalLaw #USForeignPolicy
www.youtube.com/watch?v=JDX2...

03.01.2026 21:21 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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Will the US invade Venezuela? We ask @annetteidler.bsky.social, @stevelevitsky.bsky.social, and Boris Muñoz to look beyond the pretext of drug trafficking to puzzle out US motivations and weigh the pros and cons of invasion. https://loom.ly/5AiSOs4

23.12.2025 05:49 👍 5 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0

"Trump claimed at some point that Maduro is emptying prisons and asylums. There's no evidence that this is true."

Associate Prof Annette Idler examines US policy towards Venezuela, questioning security claims and highlighting the risks of escalation.👇
https://ow.ly/nri450XN3Kp

22.12.2025 11:15 👍 3 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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Why Venezuela? | Epicenter The last time the US invaded a Latin American country was in 1989, in Panama; will Venezuela be next?

Why is the US escalating pressure on Venezuela now?
In my interview for @harvard.edu @weatherheadcenter.bsky.social ’s Epicenter, I discuss why the threat is constructed, how US politics intersects with geopolitics, and why a drug war won’t yield stability epicenter.wcfia.harvard.edu/articles/why...

21.12.2025 20:11 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Annette Idler spoke to BBC News about her assessment of the socio-economic crisis in Venezuela.
Annette Idler spoke to BBC News about her assessment of the socio-economic crisis in Venezuela. YouTube video by Blavatnik School of Government

Spoke with BBC News about the U.S. carrier strike group now off Venezuela — the biggest deployment in the region in decades. What’s driving it? Pressure on Maduro. War-on-drugs politics. Oil + great-power competition. Rising regional tensions. Watch here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4Qn...

28.11.2025 20:45 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

"Global trade and digital connectivity is what turned these Brazilian factions into networked global organisations."

Associate Prof Annette Idler explains Brazil's role in global drug trafficking. 👇
https://ow.ly/ghjp50XuI4l

20.11.2025 15:02 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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Universidade de Oxford - Tudo Sobre - Estadão Veja as reportagens especias sobre Universidade de Oxford no canal de tópicos do Estadão.

Spoke w/ Estadão on Brazil’s role in global cocaine routes. Rio’s violence is tied to EU demand, West African transit, and record Andean production. The war on drugs has failed — we need smarter, networked solutions.
Article: tinyurl.com/2a9z5fxx
Watch: tinyurl.com/va93dx37

18.11.2025 15:05 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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We’ve launched the CONPEACE Report—a decade of research on turning conflict actors into architects of peace. Featured in El País: “So much is at stake—lives, wellbeing, progress, trust in the future. [This report] must be taken seriously.”
Report: tinyurl.com/CONPEACE
El País: tinyurl.com/bdxdb5cj

14.11.2025 19:59 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

As I noted on BBC Radio4, a full-scale invasion is unlikely — the risk of civil conflict is too high.
But the region faces a deeper challenge: how to address the root causes of violence and instability beyond short-term militarised responses.

09.11.2025 21:47 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

This show of force isn’t just about “narco-terrorism.”
It’s about domestic politics, energy leverage, and geopolitical signalling — from cutting off oil to Cuba to countering China’s growing presence in Latin America.

09.11.2025 21:47 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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The Briefing Room - What's happening in Venezuela? - BBC Sounds Why is there a military build-up off the coast of Venezuela?

🎙️ I joined #BBC #Radio4’s Briefing Room to discuss the U.S. military build-up near #Venezuela — a move that could reshape regional security and global power dynamics. @pembrokeoxford.bsky.social @socsci.ox.ac.uk
🎧 Listen here @ 15:52: www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

09.11.2025 21:47 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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The Briefing Room - What's happening in Venezuela? - BBC Sounds Why is there a military build-up off the coast of Venezuela?

“What we see here is largely performative, it’s a show of power.”

Associate Prof Annette Idler explores the motives of US involvement in Venezuela on BBC Radio 4's Briefing room. Listen here 👇
https://ow.ly/vU3750Xok0p

07.11.2025 13:30 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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Arquitectos de paz ll Es que es mucho lo que hay en juego, vidas, tranquilidad, progreso, bienestar y confianza en el futuro, como para que no se tomen muy en serio estas recomendaciones.

"These recommendations are not only valid in the case of Colombia, but are also relevant for other countries seeking to transition from armed conflict to peace effectively and sustainably."

Read about Assoc Prof Annette Idler's report outlining 10 years of research👇
https://ow.ly/S4bL50XnCBw

06.11.2025 11:01 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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Not-so-covert ops: Has Trump set his sights on Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro? A recent investigation by the Associated Press found that the CIA allegedly tried to recruit the trusted pilot of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to help overthrow him. The revelations were publis...

I was interviewed by @france24.com on Trump’s new not-so-covert CIA operations in Venezuela. Turning covert ops into public theatre is about signalling toughness, not strategy—it risks cycles of retaliation. @pembrokeoxford.bsky.social @blavatnikschool.bsky.social
www.france24.com/en/americas/...

01.11.2025 17:53 👍 4 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0