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Joel Williams

@jaowilliams74

UK Head of Methods at Verian, but not entirely defined by that. Tend to tangent.

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06.07.2023
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Latest posts by Joel Williams @jaowilliams74

Hard agree. Politician turns up somewhere 'local', declares what is needed and everyone drops previous objections to join him on his journey. Never ever happens, and why would it?

10.03.2026 10:17 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

The previous version was basically perfect, though. Why update?

10.03.2026 07:47 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

So, you're saying he was generally late?...

05.03.2026 14:30 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
As a boomer, I’m shocked by gen Z’s attitude towards women – something has gone very wrong | Joan Smith New research suggests older people have more progressive views on women’s rights than younger generations. This direction of travel is deeply concerning, says Joan Smith, former co-chair of the Mayor ...

This article is referencing a 29 country study - of which the UK is one - and then despairing about the overall results as if they describe the UK...

As a boomer, I’m shocked by gen Z’s attitude towards women – something has gone very wrong | Joan Smith www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

05.03.2026 13:18 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I don't think Liverpudlians identify strongly with the concept of 'Merseyside'. If Merseyside was instead Greater Liverpool, then you'd see everyone in Liverpool say 'very strong' and everyone on the Wirral (bar Birkenhead maybe) say 'eff off'.

05.03.2026 12:43 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Curious 12 year olds who click on this are going to move on after about 4 seconds.

05.03.2026 07:00 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Different expectations ofc, but when I see breathless 'Trump underwater' posts and then see he's on 40-50% for most stuff, I think why isn't he on 10-20%? That's what Starmer's on and, whatever his failings, he's not an obviously stupid, vicious sack of shit like Trump. Why so positive, Americans?

05.03.2026 06:58 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I think the choice of 4% was to pick a single number that would cover pretty much any party vote share (and it's the #1 and #2 shares that get most scrutiny). It's not meant to be more than a rule of thumb. Some BPC members do also calculate a bootstrap CI to report variance component.

04.03.2026 20:16 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Unlike random error, which has a functional relationship with the % vote share, the history of bias in polling suggests a loose relationship at best. You'd think the absolute bias would be smaller the smaller the vote share, but it ain't necessarily so.

04.03.2026 15:21 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0

Sacrificing depth to get two super-talents was a bit RM-ish. Not clear to me how that will impact what we can do this summer (replace Salah, add another high quality #6/8, + one CB/RB on top of Jacquet?).

04.03.2026 11:38 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I didn't like the extent of the sales and worried about midfield depth but I definitely did not think the summer business was 'appalling'. How many of us knew then that Salah would decline to the degree he has - or that MacA would? I don't blame Edwards/Hughes/Slot for not predicted that!

04.03.2026 10:48 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

... due to there being less time for open play. Dk the stats on that! Anyway, my point is that goals rather than % of goals is the better indicator of the value of a team's set piece game.

03.03.2026 15:15 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

That would only be true if the number of open play goals reduces as a function of the number of set pieces attempted. If not, then scoring 19 rather than 18 is greater success from set pieces, regardless of how many are attempted. Ofc, open play goals should reduce slightly based on set piece volume

03.03.2026 15:15 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

So if a team scores 3 goals all season and 2 of them are set piece goals, that makes them the set piece kings of the division?! It's volume that matters.

03.03.2026 13:13 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

All he's saying is that he doesn't enjoy watching it, which is pretty much what everyone else is saying. He's not saying it's the reason why LFC is not challenging this year.

03.03.2026 13:10 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I think it's that Arsenal perfected the meat wall, refs did sod all to combat it so everyone else has piled in on the tactic. Even the holdouts - LFC - did it yesterday! Arsenal's success at this one thing has spoilt the PL, no doubt. The refs could wind it back but I've no confidence they will.

01.03.2026 19:20 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Oh, sorry!

27.02.2026 16:24 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

He was banished from that particular club a long long time ago...

27.02.2026 15:57 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I suppose the last two poll results are consistent with undecideds making a late en masse decision to vote Green..

How are these polls conducted? The Opinium poll has a suitably hedged, fairly detailed analysis but no methods details except 'representative online'.

www.opinium.com/resource-cen...

27.02.2026 10:30 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Doesn't count if you stop to take pictures!

27.02.2026 10:19 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Ah, thank you for the explanation. Though, surprised they didn't change the rule on the fly once Nick had gone and it became clear what Kelley had decided to do...

27.02.2026 08:07 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

The happiest people in Britain this morning? Political scientists.

27.02.2026 08:03 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Apart from the firepit reveal of Ben's status. Why did the production team do that?

27.02.2026 07:22 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

What I don't get: you had one of the best UIs of any app and then just bricked it. What is actually better than what you already had?

26.02.2026 20:14 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

When I read it to my kids about 6 years ago, I skipped that bit and then found Tolkien referred back to it about a dozen times ('but of course we don't know [fact x] because of that time your dad fast forwarded 20 pages')...

24.02.2026 22:25 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

To me, there is selective memory at work: it was not all incredible football under Klopp; we struggled with the low block teams; people moaned about Thiago slowing us down... really similar to current complaints. The difference is that Slot's not got Klopp's huge personality and the fans miss that.

24.02.2026 15:42 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Certainly Klopp had racked up the credit prior to 20/21 (though I still recall idiot pundits of the time saying he'd been 'found out'...), but Slot couldn't have racked up much more credit in his one and only full season. And it's not helping him one bit with the fanbase.

24.02.2026 15:42 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

To me, that's just forgetting what those two seasons were like: not better than this season. But presumably you weren't calling for Klopp to be replaced then? So why Slot? Just because Alonso is out of work? Come on.

24.02.2026 13:59 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I read the free bit at the start. You think it makes sense - to head & heart - to replace Slot with Alonso at the end of the season. So you must think this patchy season is fundamentally different from Klopp's patchy seasons.

24.02.2026 13:59 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Some LFC fans have convinced themselves that Slot had nothing to do with the 24/25 title win. They've also wiped the very patchy 20/21 and 22/23 seasons from their memories of the Klopp years.

24.02.2026 08:00 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0