@skywatcher77
#NoKings but Christ! I'm PhD atmospheric scientist working on hurricanes and weather- and climate-driven risks. Pro-Constitution, pro-democracy, politically independent. Still taking high precautions against Covid-19. Seneca. Wildfire survivor. Views mine.
It's time for Congress to act on this unlawful and depraved President!
1. Impeach
2. Convict
3. Remove
This isn't about party politics. It is about the morality of our nation.
#ImpeachTrump
nytimes.com/2025/11/12/u...
Major Hurricane Melissa makes a historic landfall near New Hope, Jamaica.
One factor that supported Melissa reaching this record: an Argo float southeast of Jamaica shows a dramatic decrease in upper-level ocean temperature before (18 Oct) and after (28 Oct) the storm.
My heart goes out to the folks in Jamaica facing this powerful hurricane's numerous hazards today. 💔
Map of Jamaica showing percentage of population living in poverty in 2012, which is minimal near the coasts (a few %) and maximized in the hilly interior (~40%). There isn’t even a major highway running that far west. Map source: https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/236781584080916414
Echoing colleagues: Think before you (re)post. #Melissa is about to impact a relatively poor part of Jamaica. I doubt we will know the true extent of the devastation for days or weeks.
Information vacuums fill with disinformation. Expect a lot of “breaking wind” on SM.
Map source: World Bank
Thanks to the brave crews of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and the NOAA Hurricane Hunters today for collecting this invaluable data. (Both were in the storm this morning, and given the severe turbulence, are backing each other up with radar obs, etc.)
The key caveat here is "observed", since planes often avoid sampling the worst part of the storm for safety reasons. I also allow for the possibility that I may have missed an observation somewhere. I will be doing more analysis this afternoon. Regardless, Melissa is one VERY intense hurricane.
Update #4: By the metric of observed maximum flight level winds at 700 mb, 10-sec average, preliminary data suggests that #Melissa is now the TOP Atlantic hurricane in the modern era of aircraft reconnaissance (since ~1977).
Update #3: #Melissa is now tied for 9th place for Atlantic hurricanes in the modern era, using the metric of observed maximum flight level winds @ 700 mb, 10-sec average.
By the metric of maximum sustained flight level winds, #Melissa, with 163 kt 700-mb 10-s flight level winds, has now eclipsed Milton, Doran, Hugo, Felix, and Ivan to move up to #9.
Graphic from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS website showing the automated satellite intensity estimate for Melissa of 176 kt winds
Y'all - this is literally insane. I am pretty sure that I have never seen automated satellite intensity estimates this high on an Atlantic hurricane. Dvorak T-numbers approaching 8.5 are almost always with west Pac supertyphoons. Graphic from UW-CIMSS.
The western end of Jamaica where #Melissa is projected to make landfall has the least well-built structures of anyplace on the island. Graphic is from a 2021 paper, "Poverty and hurricane risk exposure in Jamaica": www.researchgate.net/publication/...
This list is not guaranteed to be exhaustive (a storm or two could be missing). Maximum flight level winds were obtained from Vortex Data Messages (VDMs).
Data source: Archive of VDMs from 1989-2022: verif.rap.ucar.edu/tcdata/vorte...
#Melissa, an extremely powerful and intense hurricane, has made it into the upper echelon of Atlantic hurricanes in the modern aircraft reconnaissance era, based on maximum flight level winds. At 161 kt, it is currently tied at #14 with Ivan (2004), Dorian (2019), and Milton (2024).
From a crewmember on yesterday's Teal 74 mission into now-Category 5 Hurricane #Melissa. As clear of an eye as you will see in the Atlantic basin.
The monster eye at the center of a still strengthening Hurricane Melissa.
Jamaica has low storm surge risk—not a lot of low-lying areas. An exception: Kingston’s Norman Manley International Airport (built on fill), Soapberry Wastewater Treatment Plant, Portmore Mall, Jamworld Entertainment Center, the National Gallery, Petrojam Refinery, Caribbean Maritime University.
Just got my #novavax booster here in TN, thanks to
@publixofficial.bsky.social Pharmacy.
Had discussed with my doctor and got an Rx, but wasn't needed. Have asthma and that was enough. Called ahead to confirm availability and they had 1 dose left!
nuvaxovid.com/vaccine-loca...
If we had crossed paths with a serial child abuser, we simply would not have hand-drawn him a naked woman or given him a birthday card.
This does not seem difficult.
The Epstein files must be released, and Trump must be impeached. He is unfit.
Press release from Boulder County about the coming upgrade to the county's outdoor warning sirens. Quote from the press release: "At the request of first responders, these sirens may be used for alerting affected areas during wildfires, floods, hazardous materials and other disasters," said Office of Disaster Management Director Mike Chard.
As a #MarshallFire survivor, I'm very glad to see that #BoulderCounty is upgrading their sirens and expanding their use to a variety of hazards, including wildfires. Sirens are particularly helpful for people who are outdoors, like my wife and son were the day of the fire.
“This is not about one official. It is about the systematic dismantling of public health institutions, the silencing of experts, and the dangerous politicization of science.” ~US Senator Patty Murray.
Dr. Monarez is standing up for science. Demand that Kennedy be fired.
www.cnn.com/2025/08/27/h...
Update: The severe weather and flooding threats have passed. More light to moderate rains are expected, which should be beneficial to lawns and gardens that have gotten rather baked over the past week.
NWS Morristown has issued a #SevereThunderstormWarning for southwestern Hamilton County and parts of Marion county including #Chattanooga and other areas. Torrential rainfall and flooding is also possible. #TNwx
forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatx...
Update at 5:16 PM: Storms have passed through the Chattanooga area without too many impacts. The complex is propagating slowly south and a bit west from Sewanee through down through South Pittsburg and into N AL with heavy rain.
Heads up #Chattanooga and folks in the N AL/SE TN/N GA areas -- isolated to scattered flash flooding is possible this afternoon and evening. For meteorological details, see:
wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/met...
#TNwx
Thankfully the latest round of storms has not been as heavy as yesterday's downpours. The rain at CHA began at around 12:25 PM yesterday. With the latest addition from today's rain, the airport appears to have reached an unholy 24-hour rainfall total of 6.66". Subject to change. #Chattanooga #TNwx
Given yesterday's extreme rainfall in #Chattanooga and #EastRidge, things could go downhill quite quickly.
NWS Morristown just issued a Flash Flood Warning for southern Hamilton County, including Chattanooga, Collegedale, East Ridge, southern Bradley County, and Marion County. Up to 1" of new rain has already fallen and another 0.5-2" are possible.
forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.ph...
As of 10:00 PM EDT traffic flowing again on I-24 east and west, just west of the 24/75 junction. Large amounts of backed up traffic in all directions approaching the area before traffic can move at speed again. Updates tonight on @WDEFNews12.
14/ Finally, while it's not wise to attribute any single event to climate change, research shows that these types of events are becoming more and more frequent as atmospheric moisture increases. Expect more of these 1 in 200-year rainfall events in the future.
13/ The system works! Tell Representative Chuck Fleischmann that TN-03 needs fully funded weather services and accompanying research funding to continue improving our weather warnings.
