Steve Bowen

Really glad that I've got an EV. For a number of reasons.

This is just one of many ENSO models to project future conditions.

Here's a link that shows statistical and dynamical ENSO model forecasts: iri.columbia.edu/our-expertis...

Why is it far from a guarantee? Let's go back to March 2017. The ECMWF was also calling for a strong El Niño for peak hurricane season.

See what actually happened (dashed line).

We all know how the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season played out.

It's still March. A lot can change by June.

(2/2)

Safe to say that the European (ECMWF) seasonal ENSO forecast model has an opinion...

This would be quite the El Niño from June into peak Atlantic hurricane season.

REMINDER: This is simply one model ensemble projection. Far from a guarantee, but helpful to try to identify early signals.

(1/2)

That's a great story. Thanks for sharing!

Lou Holtz was a wonderful man. My dad was a professor at Notre Dame, and Lou always accepted my dad's invitation to come speak to his undergrad business students.

He was inspiring, kind, and always made you feel important when he talked to you.

RIP Coach.

US severe convective storm (SCS) activity to ramp up. The Storm Prediction Center already flags 4 of the next 8 days with likely activity.

Outbreaks starting in March have accounted for a notable portion of annual SCS losses for insurers:

2020: 12%
2021: 12%
2022: 9%
2023: 20%
2024: 15%
2025: 26%

Nearly half of the US Lower 48 is experiencing drought conditions. The upcoming weather pattern will drop heavy rains in some areas, but not enough to address growing drought in many parts of the country.

FYI: Expect US thunderstorm activity to really pick up this week in the Plains / Midwest.

Master of Puppets - YouTube

Today marks the 40th anniversary of what I consider the greatest album ever released:

Metallica's "Master of Puppets"

It would be impossible to count how many times I've played this album, or explain the profound influence it's had in my life.

Absolute perfection!

www.youtube.com/playlist?lis...

ICYMI: Recent extended freezes in Florida have led to an estimated $3.17 billion in damage to crops in the state. This ranks among the most damaging agricultural hits to Florida from freeze conditions on record.

content.govdelivery.com/attachments/...

NOAA has rated the February 22-24, 2026 Nor'easter a Category 3 (out of 5) on the Regional Snowfall Index (RSI) scale.

This places it as the #17 most impactful snow storm event - based on total snowfall, storm size, and societal impact - for the Northeast since 1900.

ICYMI: NOAA has slightly increased October 2025's Hurricane Melissa to a 190 mph Category 5 storm at landfall in Jamaica during reanalysis. This ties with Allen (1980) as the strongest hurricane ever officially recorded in the Atlantic Basin based on max wind speed.

www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL1...

Update: Really impressive localized snowfall totals in Rhode Island (including a possible state record!), Massachusetts, New York (Long Island), and Connecticut.

Note that the NOAA gridded snowfall data has missed some of the more granular high totals in some spots.

This is a monster Nor'easter.

Of note, only 4 historical Northeast winter storms dating to 1900 have achieved a Category 5 rating on NOAA's Regional Snowfall Index. The last time was January 1996.

The RSI accounts for size of storm, total snowfall, and the scope of societal (population) impact.

Current situation at O'Hare International Airport in Chicago (8am). What a total mess. Enormous lines.

Mother Nature feels that it is never too early to start driving up SCS loss totals....!

First date of SPC forecast of Enhanced / Moderate / High since 2015:

2022: Jan 1 (ENH)
2017: Jan 2 (ENH)
2023: Jan 2 (ENH)
2015: Jan 3 (ENH)
2016: Jan 8 (ENH)
2024: Jan 8 (ENH)
2020: Jan 10 (MDT)
2025: Feb 12 (ENH)
2021: Feb 15 (ENH)
2026: Feb 19 (ENH)
2019: Feb 23 (MDT)
2018: Feb 24 (ENH)

(2/2)

February 19: Today we see the highest forecast US thunderstorm risk thus far in 2026 as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has introduced an Enhanced Risk (3 out of 5) in parts of the Midwest.

Of note -- February 19 is the 3rd-latest first day of 3/4/5 SPC thunderstorm severity risk since 2015.

(1/2)

As the peak of US severe convective storm (SCS) season looms, insurers pay attention to various Producer Price Index (PPI) datasets to guide on future influence on claims payout costs.

Asphalt Shingle and Coating Material PPI headed into 2026 at near all-time record high levels; up 43% since 2020.

February 17: Large fires continuing to burn this evening across parts of the Texas & Oklahoma panhandles and southern Kansas.

Validates the "Extremely Critical" fire weather forecast by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

We've shattered the daily record high in Chicago today (February 16). Today's high has hit 65°F; well above the previous daily record of 58°F set in 1921.

Today is only one of 11 days to reach at least 65°F so early in the year. Last time was Jan 7, 2008.

Chicago temperature records began in 1872.

Damage to Florida crops could top $1 billion after below-freezing temps “There will be no normal about this season,” one farmer said.

Recent extended freeze in Florida has had a significant impact to the agricultural sector. The state estimates damage costs to crops alone could top $1bn.

www.orlandosentinel.com/2026/02/12/d...

Radical take: I prefer breathing clean air without toxic fossil fuel pollutants.

The combined direct economic toll from the recent clustering of strong windstorms in Portugal and Spain now tops €8bn ($9.5bn). This total will increase as this primarily accounts for wind and flood damage to agriculture and infrastructure.

Storm Kristin
Storm Leonardo (Stephie)
Storm Marta

Storm Kristin, which brought hurricane-force winds to Portugal and Spain on January 28-29, left a wide trail of impacts. Economic damage costs in Portugal alone are now at least €4bn ($4.7bn).

Hardest-hit areas were affected by the system's "sting jet" that maximized wind speeds as it came ashore.

Great article. Also, selfishly, excited that @bhensonweather.bsky.social references a recent paper that a few of us recently published on rapid intensification trends of tropical cyclones using ENSO based on RONI.

Paper: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

Improved climate adaptation / mitigation can reduce risk. Eliminate it? No.

The primary challenge is whether we can scale enough to meaningfully improve our readiness. There are ample examples of strong building codes working. Just not nearly enough properties are built to an appropriate standard.

Sitting in a Canadian catastrophe conference, and hearing an eerily familiar refrain from what many of us are saying across the border in the US:

"Earthquake insurance penetration rates for homeowners are shockingly low. When the next 'big one' hits, a huge portion of damage will be uninsured."

The Forecast Wars on Weather Twitter Traditional meteorologists speak in potentialities and probabilities. A new type of social-media influencer takes a different approach, exaggerating possibilities and fomenting hype in the lead-up to ...

This is pathetic, but also a dangerous reality that legitimate scientists trying to provide rational nuance to a starved public have to contend against.

www.newyorker.com/culture/infi...

True: The recent US winter storm was disruptive and a big deal for many communities.

False: It did not and will not come remotely close to causing up to $115bn in direct (or indirect) economic losses.

Media: Please stop treating these estimates as anything other than a farcical fantasy.