Text features and baseline models' predictive performance line charts over 6 time horizons (BBC data, left; CrisisWatch data, right).
Happy to share that my new paper is out in @conflictmanagement.bsky.social
I compare several NLP approaches for conflict prediction:
• conflict dictionaries
• sentiment dictionaries
• word scaling
• dynamic topic models
• specialized transformer models
Spanish PM Sánchez responds to Trump:
"Spain is against this disaster... Govts are here to improve people's lives... It is absolutely unacceptable that those leaders who are unable to fulfill that mission use the smoke of war to hide their failure, and in the process, fill the pockets of a few."
Just arrived: MAKING A CAREER IN DICTATORSHIP.
Featuring original visualizations throughout, the book reconstructs an entire military organization using career data from 15k officers.
A deep dive into how the security apparatus in autocracies really works.
Excited to finally hold it in my hands.
Russia, Venezuela, Iran, China, the Sahel region, the United States ...
Want to know why state agents carry out brutal repression — or participate in illegal coups?
Our new book "Making a Career in Dictatorship" provides answers — it just got published by @academic.oup.com:
tinyurl.com/ystwm3tf
Meine Einschätzung zur #Abschiebeoffensive der CSU:
Die geplante Abschiebeoffensive der CSU wäre ein schwerer Fehler mit enormen wirtschaftlichen Kosten für Deutschland und wäre zudem ein Bruch mit dem deutschen Asylrecht.
Thread 1/n
🪙Do economic sanctions negatively affect democracy and human rights in targeted countries?
➡️ @antonpeez.bsky.social re-examines the effects of Western sanctions to improve democracy and human rights from 1990-2021 and finds that negative effects persist www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
The Geneva Academy has launched War WATCH, a new online portal combining conflict classification (RULAC) and analysis of civilian harm and IHL compliance.
warwatch.ch
"About 243,000 more children under 5 years have died or will die this year than in 2024" due mostly to DOGE's illegal dismantling of USAID
📢 New publication alert! 📢
How do countries around the world pursue justice after human rights violations?
This special data feature introduces the Transitional Justice Evaluation Tools (TJET) database, which includes 400+ indicators on transitional justice mechanisms worldwide from 1970 to 2020.
New Publication with @lhaffert.bsky.social in @ejprjournal.bsky.social!
We study the role of generations in the urban-rural divide, which is increasingly shaping the politics of many democracies.
Studying Switzerland, we show: The urban-rural divide is stronger among younger generations. (1/10) 🧵👇
📣 out now, with @argohdes.bsky.social and Mark Gibney - and in honour of the wonderful Steve Poe, who motivated the 1st edition with @universitypress.cambridge.org
tinyurl.com/2s4kh6z3. If you enjoy reading this even a fraction as much as I enjoyed creating it, you’re in for a ride 🤩
Wrote up a little intervention post/explanation for my class about why using LLMs for trying to learn programming (as first time learners!) is bad and detrimental datavizf25.classes.andrewheiss.com/news/2025-11...
In a new paper, we show that "opportunity moves" foster political integration and shift political preferences to the left.
Please have a look at @valentinaconsiglio.bsky.social's excellent summary for some more details.
👉 tinyurl.com/46utjj65
The course aims to advance these skills with an emphasis on producing publication-ready figures, including high-resolution plots that use color-blind-friendly palettes, to ensure that data-driven evidence is communicated as clearly and inclusively as possible. (7/n)
We might ask whether we still need data visualization training when we have powerful LLMs to help us. Certainly, LLMs can help to optimize our code. But without a profound understanding of the produced code, we run the risk of creating figures that may look nice but that misrepresent our data. (6/n)
In order to create effectively communicate data, we need to understand the inherent biases and dynamics of human visual perceptions. These insights on the fundamentals of data visualization are broadly applicable beyond the field of (social) science. (5/n)
As put by Kieran Healy: "Data visualization is not simply a matter of competing standards of good taste. Some approaches work better for reasons that have less to do with one’s sense of what looks good and more to do with how human visual perception works." (4/n)
Apart from providing code for various figures including cleveland plots, ridgeline plots, or dynamic plots, the class seeks to provide a theoretical foundation. Effective data visualization requires a profound understanding of the dynamics of human visual perception. (3/n)
The course will introduce a variety of data visualization techniques including model-based visualizations, focusing on the effective presentation of empirical results through coefficient plots, simulated expected value plots, and event study plots. (2/n)
I'm very excited to teach this Data Visualization course next week at the German Institute for Global Area Studies (GIGA): lnkd.in/eWBX2EQN (1/n)
This is a remarkable case of Chinese authorities threatening a UK university into halting research on human rights violations, and the university acquiescing.
🚨 EPSS Belfast 2026 Call for Papers - One week to go! 🚨
Don't forget to submit your paper or panel proposal to the European Political Science Society @epssnet.bsky.social 2026 conference - just one week to go before the deadline: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
abstract
Happy to share that our paper on the ideological biases of international organizations is now out in the current issue of the AJPS (@ajpseditor.bsky.social):
dx.doi.org/10.1111/ajps...
@the-peio.bsky.social @mzesunimannheim.bsky.social @akentikelenis.bsky.social
BJPolS abstract discussing the dynamic between knowledge economy migration and political shifts in Germany, specifically addressing urban versus rural opportunities and its implications on political perspectives and migration trends.
NEW -
Seeking Opportunity in the Knowledge Economy: Moving Places, Moving Politics? - https://cup.org/3LgxVos
"moving to opportunity results in... more left-leaning self-identification, and lower support for far-right parties"
- @valentinaconsiglio.bsky.social & @thmskrr.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
Thanks to the great help by @rstrauch.bsky.social, Gabriele Spilker and the Cluster of Excellence "The Politics of Inequality" @excinequality.bsky.social, version 5.0 of the "Mass Mobilization in Autocracies Database" (coverage until 2022) is now available at mmadatabase.org!
BJPolS abstract from a research study on the impact of public parades and communal rituals in post-conflict societies in Northern Ireland, focusing on mixed-methods research and longitudinal studies conducted between 2003 and 2022.
NEW -
Contentious Rituals and Intergroup Relations: Parading in Northern Ireland - cup.org/3L55Bp7
- Kit Rickard, Giovanni Hollenweger, @swebera.bsky.social & @kristinmbakke.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
Ich habe mit @zeit.de über die Reaktionen etablierter Parteien auf den Erfolg der radikalen Rechten gesprochen – warum Anpassung und Einbindung riskant sind und wo Chancen jenseits reaktiver Strategien liegen.
Überraschend, dass das ZDF-Politbarometer diese Umfrage so verzerrt darstellt: Statt nach der Originalaussage von Merz zu fragen, die tagelang diskutiert wurde, wird in der Umfrage seine späte Rechtfertigung ergänzt. In der Grafik wird das aber gar nicht erwähnt. So geht Framing.
🚨 New article out in @jeppjournal.bsky.social with @svenhegewald.bsky.social
“The changing geography of support for European integration in the shadow of the Ukraine war."
How did Russia’s invasion reshape public support for EU policies?
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
