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Cannon IQ

@cannoniq

Full time Risk Quant, part time Football Fanalyst, lifetime gunner #afc https://cannoniq.substack.com/

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13.11.2023
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Latest posts by Cannon IQ @cannoniq

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After Everton this is what I’d like to see

4-2-2 in the cups: Solidity

4-3-3 in the league: Control

Madueke Trossard Nelli Norgaard and Calafiori coming in as and when required.

07.03.2026 15:03 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Just spoke to my brother (very smart guy knows his football) who with nothing but seriousness in his voice said over the phone as 3rd goal went in

β€œTudor doesn’t survive tonight, they’ll have to get Allardyce or Redknapp in asapβ€œ

I’m in tears man, literal tears πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚

05.03.2026 20:56 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

After so many years of playing well and losing, I can definitely say that playing like ass and winning is much funnier, if nothing else

04.03.2026 21:30 πŸ‘ 122 πŸ” 22 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 0

Real talk, are the spuds actually going down?

01.03.2026 20:40 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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Built this from my expected-points model. After beating Chelsea 2-1 today, the title is genuinely ours to lose.

Base on my, sophisticated Bayesian Gamma-Poission model (aka random number generator)

This is the shakedown - Arsenal 86pts. City 85pts

Stay strong people

#afc

01.03.2026 20:04 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Forever and always

01.03.2026 18:54 πŸ‘ 12 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

90bpm heart rate minimum for 90+ mins every 3 days, mind you, at rest it's normally 40. These lot are going to kill me.

up the gun, on to the next. #afc

01.03.2026 18:35 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I hate watching this team omds

01.03.2026 18:28 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

All set up for a back to back humbling in the EFL final and at the Etihad

We will prevail

28.02.2026 19:28 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Dropping Β£70m for the league’s in-form forward in a January transfer window is what you do if you’re free from the rules applying to your rivals.

28.02.2026 18:31 πŸ‘ 20 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Brace yourself for an all timer rattler post match presser from B.Silva where he’ll mention Arsenal 10 times in 3 minutes after their inevitable 1-0 win.

Seen this guff before

28.02.2026 17:58 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

We absolutely wax teams up and consistently concede goals of the season contenders, yet everyone forgets how to shoot when they play city, give me a break

28.02.2026 17:55 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

No mugs in the PL boy #WOLAVL

27.02.2026 21:58 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

We took a point off this Wolves super team.

27.02.2026 21:56 πŸ‘ 278 πŸ” 15 πŸ’¬ 10 πŸ“Œ 1

Caught the nastiest thought that we could have 4 finals (PL run/ April Etihad Game included) against City

27.02.2026 17:09 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Relegation scenarios are equally hilarious, one to watch

26.02.2026 22:43 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I don’t think I can stomach dropping 6 more points tho lmao (max we can get is 91)

26.02.2026 22:41 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Quick explainer:

WRA model (classic statistical model) : Recent form matters most, weights latest games heavier.

Bayesian model (Fancy ML model): Accounts for luck, smooths out lucky streaks or unlucky losses.

Both say we're top. I'll take it. πŸ”΄

26.02.2026 22:40 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Now that I've had my existential spiral, I'm back modeling... and we look good. πŸ‘€

Two models: Weighted Rolling Average and Bayesian Gamma-Poisson both have Arsenal finishing top in the GW29 and beyond simulations.

Cautiously optimistic πŸ”΄

Design borrowed from the legendary @cannonstats.com

26.02.2026 22:40 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Scalvini… #bring

25.02.2026 19:09 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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I Started This As A Data Piece.

Opta Broke My Pipeline. I Got Emotional.

4000 Words Later Here We Are.

The Puffiest Thing I Have Ever Written And I Stand By Every Word Of It. Link Below πŸ‘‡

cannoniq.substack.com/p/the-worst-...

πŸ“Šβž‘οΈπŸ˜€βž‘οΈπŸ“

24.02.2026 23:16 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Run in back line

22.02.2026 19:38 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Never bored of beating them lot.

I really hope this is our come to Jesus moment

10 to go #coyg

22.02.2026 18:55 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Timber has been played into the ground, quietly been awful since the turn of the year. 0 ball security and just staring hoofing aimlessly for 20 mins.

18.02.2026 22:15 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I’m not being dramatic when I say I’m starting to worry Arteta hasn’t got it man. Over engineers every thing, we look boring, static and play on margins.

18.02.2026 22:05 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I’ve burnt my bridge with this team. Cowards top to bottom.

18.02.2026 22:02 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Nothing annoys me more than Relegated teams playing with pride too late

Where was this level of performance when it mattered

Move man, just give me my 5-0 and stop doing crowd jeering.

Also Y. Mosquera is a neek, awful player.

18.02.2026 20:57 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

SenΓ΅r Estadios VacΓ­os estΓ‘ de vuelta

28.01.2026 23:07 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I’m trying my best to contextualise my feelings but seeing the performance has sealed for me that we can still win the league but it won’t be a barnstormer 10+ point margin victory (which we all as fans want to see)

We will prevail.

Tough times never last, only tough people last.

πŸ€ͺ

#coyg

25.01.2026 19:55 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Simply speechless

25.01.2026 18:50 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0