@umitak
Political economy of development & growth models | Dependent financialization and central banking | Political economy of new authoritarianisms | Turkey | @ipeberlin.bsky.social | https://www.ipe-berlin.org/en/institute/members/uemit-akcay/
By examining the underlying policy coalition and its internal tensions, the piece offers a broader analytical lens for those interested both in the political economy of monetary policy and in the trajectory of the Turkish economy.
doi.org/10.1080/1944...
This article argues that such interpretations are incomplete. It proposes a critical political economy framework to understand monetary policy by focusing on the social forces and class dynamics that shape it.
Most commentary on Turkey’s monetary policy rarely ventures into political economy analysis. Instead, the zigzags and shifts in policy are typically explained through President Erdoğan’s personal preferences, institutional erosion, or populist monetary experiments.
doi.org/10.1080/1944...
📢My article on Turkey’s recent monetary policy trajectory has just been published.
It argues that monetary policy is never merely technical. It is deeply political. In moments of crisis, it becomes a central instrument for sustaining growth coalitions.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
The first 50 free copies are available here:
tandfonline.com/eprint/PZSKZ...
If you cannot access the article, please feel free to DM me.
It also examines how this monetary experiment influenced the run-up to the 2023 elections and contributed to the AKP’s electoral success despite growing economic tensions.
Focusing on the period between 2018 and 2023, the article explores how changes in interest rates, credit policy, and exchange rate management reshaped the economy.
📢My article on Turkey’s recent monetary policy trajectory has just been published.
It argues that monetary policy is never merely technical. It is deeply political. In moments of crisis, it becomes a central instrument for sustaining growth coalitions.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Safe‑asset demand seems increasingly sensitive to political risk, and investors are becoming slightly more cautious about politically exposed assets, shifting small but noticeable amounts toward safer and more neutral stores of value.
It seems that today’s “Sell America” episode, with a weaker dollar, lower Treasury prices and higher gold, aligns with themes in Pozsar’s Bretton Woods III framework: a geopolitical dispute produced a shift from inside money (US T-bonds) toward outside money (gold and others).
Is it a good time for revisiting Zoltan Pozsar’s Bretton Woods‑III after the “Sell America” episode?
The new geoeconomic reality has undermined the external anchors that supported the German model for decades. The era of cheap energy, the US security umbrella, and unlimited access to Chinese markets is over.
open.substack.com/pub/umitak/p...
The new GDP growth data from Destatis is out. Here is my short take on Germany's economy.
open.substack.com/pub/umitak/p...
By pursuing criminal charges against Fed Chair Powell, Trump has fueled a fresh debate on central bank independence. Here is my brief note on this:
In my latest blog, I unpack the new Trump Doctrine:
By placing economic security at its core, advancing transactional relationships, and openly embracing strategic competition, this doctrine stands as one of the clearest political expressions of the ongoing transformation of global capitalism.
if you came of age in the 20th century then this really sits you down about how much the Worlds changed in 21st century. no going back…. @katemac.bsky.social
Germany was 4 times China's GDP in 1990
China is now 4 times Germany's GDP in 2025
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/bri...
My brief take on Trump’s first year and the power bloc shaping Trumpism:
open.substack.com/pub/umitak/p...
If this moment opens new policy space for progressive politics and strengthens the labor movement, the victory could mark a hopeful beginning.
On the New York elections and Mamdani’s win: Both left and right can use the cycle of marketization and counter-movements (Polanyi). What matters is turning this energy into a lasting political strategy.
Between Wall Street and Trump: The Left’s Central Bank Dilemma
Between the technocrats of Wall Street and the populists like Trump, the left must reclaim central banking as a site of democratic struggle.
By
@umitak.bsky.social
substack.com/app-link/pos...
"..independence entrenches capitalist power, while authoritarian control concentrates it. Both depoliticization and personalism depoliticize society itself, denying collective decision-making about the economy. The challenge is to chart a third path: democratic control without executive domination."
Between Wall Street and Trump: The Left’s Central Bank Dilemma
open.substack.com/pub/umitak/p...
For a concise summary of policy shifts and their broader implications in Turkey and Argentina, see the blog post below 👇 "Looking into Argentina’s mirror, Turkey and the wider Global South can see their own reflection."
Thanks for sharing.
"Both Argentina and Turkey show how class coalitions can briefly expand policy space, but without structural transformation these tactical gains evaporate. In both cases, dependency on volatile capital flows... has forced governments back into orthodoxy and deeper external subordination."
Last week at the EAEPE conference, I presented a co-authored paper on Argentina’s and Turkey’s responses to the 2018 currency crises and their class dynamics. The timing coincided with Milei’s U.S. visit and new support package. Here’s a short blogpost on this:
open.substack.com/pub/umitak/p...
My brief notes on the Turkey’s peace process with Kurds:
Turkey's Peace Process with Kurds: Are We at a Turning Point?
open.substack.com/pub/umitak/p...
