@cliffthomas
Here for policy, politics, paleontology, and memes. TTRPG and 40k enthusiast. NYJ fan. VP of Policy/Gov Affairs @RelayGSE. Maker of the 40k Meta Data Dashboard: https://www.stat-check.com/the-meta. Comments mine. I miss Vine.
Wow, the Dem primary turnout among Hispanic voters in Texas is going to be giving the GOP sweats for the next 8 months.
Take Zapata County - turnout in the Dem primary there yesterday was 143% the total number of votes Harris won in the 2024 general election. That's wild.
New post!
Many Americans hold contradictory opinions on the same policies. Question wording effects can swing opinions by 20+ points on immigration, the budget, and transgender rights.
That's a problem for people who interpret polls for a living.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/many-ameri...
Amazing Paul - thanks for your work and generosity! I wonder if you’re familiar w this effort from Urban Institute - which (I imagine) was artisanal and ppl intensive. I think all open api if it might be interesting to compare? educationdata.urban.org/data-explorer
For researchers working with the IPEDS dataset (nces.ed.gov/ipeds/), which can be kind of a bear to work with, especially over time, I've constructed some code to harmonize the data into a single DuckDB database
github.com/paulgp/ipeds...
TCW's such a special case of Pundit Brain because it's clear that he's trapped by his schtick and wishes he could be Bouie, a smart guy who gets to read and say smart things about the world. It's just clear jealousy.
Stunning work:
"Currently, 6.1 percent of K-12 students in the United States receive gifted education ... Under 4 percent of students in the lowest income percentile are identified as gifted, compared with 20 percent of those in the top income percentile."
edworkingpapers.com/ai26-1375
The entire Democratic strategy debate — "moderate" or move left? fight or compromise? — is based on a misreading of data. Voters don't think Dems are too progressive; they think Dems are weak. The actual math on what to do about this isn't even close!
New: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/new-poll-d...
Political journalism needs fewer "takes" and more analytical legwork www.gelliottmorris.com/p/political-...
Once again, I’m just a small-town political scientist, & it’s still relatively early, but it appears that The Actual Democrats do not Need To Do any of the Things or Learn any of the Obvious Lessons that Ezra Douthglesias said they Must Do & Learn 🤔🧐
Final numbers appear to be in in PA #HD42, and we're looking at a +35 Dem overperformance.
Our special election Big Board has all the data:
It’s going to sound quaint, but the best way to resist an AI takeover of the humanities is to assign physical books, sit around, read them, and argue about ideas. Academic has become such a competitive arena, that we ourselves are trained to look for the winning angle, instead of the best education.
MEMORANDUM OPINION February 16, 2026 “All history was a palimpsest, scraped clean and reinscribed exactly as often as was necessary. In no case would it have been possible, once the deed was done, to prove that any falsification had taken place.” George Orwell, 1984' As if the Ministry of Truth in George Orwell's 1984 now existed, with its motto "Ignorance is Strength," this Court is now asked to determine whether the federal government has the power it claims—to dissemble and disassemble historical truths when it has some domain over historical facts. It does not. The President's House is a component of Independence National Historical Park that commemorates the site of the first official presidential residence and the people who lived there, including people enslaved by President George Washington. On January 22, 2026, the National Park Service ("NPS") removed panels, displays, and video exhibits that referenced slavery and information about the individuals enslaved at the President's House. Plaintiff City of Philadelphia ("the City" filed this lawsuit under the Administrative Procedures Act ("APA") against the Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum…
CONCLUsION For the reasons stated above, the Motion for Preliminary Injunction will be granted. The preliminary injunction will remain in place pending further litigation in this matter. There can b no prejudice to Defendants' restoration of the status quo as of January 21, 2026, which requires that Defendants reinstall all panels, displays, and video exhibits that were previously in place. Defendants shall further prevent any additions, removals, destruction, or further changes of any kind to the President's House site, except in the event that a mutual written agreement is reachec between Defendants and the City of Philadelphia. An order will be entered.
Federal court orders Trump administration to restore historical panel exhibits at President’s House in Philadelphia.
Happy Presidents Day.
I think it's slightly more specific given 2024's focus group coverage. Seems like many of the least informed voters:
- didnt really remember his first term
- dismissed reporting about his second term intentions as extreme, and
- are now faced with the reality of those intentions and are adjusting
easy slogan for the next democratic presidential candidate is “i will reform the corrupt supreme court and repeal citizens united”
A sentimental man who is very sensitive and compassionate toward the sufferings of other men has less chance to climb or to keep his power than an identical man free from such sentimentality. Ruling or money making; conquest or pioneering; building of political empires or empires of business; spreading a religion by bomb, sword, violence; or performing the acts of severe justice; revolutionary propaganda or efficient keeping of social order; these and other functions of the upper strata demand for successful performance a great deal of severity, hardness and insensitiveness toward the sufferings of other men. It is in the nature of these functions. A sincere diplomat would be a failure. An entirely frank captain of industry or strategist is the man who ruins his own business or the whole army. An honest man who makes no brilliant promises is one who rarely can obtain any political success. Hence, insincerity, cynicism, manipulation of ideas and convictions are necessary prerequisites for successful climbing through many channels.
Social and cultural mobility (1927) by Pitirim Sorokin, once head of Harvard University's department of sociology.
Worth remembering this from Pitirim Sorokin who in many ways founded the modern study of social mobility.
New Data For Progress poll: Voters support removing Stephen Miller and Kristi Noem, and think Dems should refuse funding for DHS unless multiple reforms for ICE are put in place (including requiring ICE to focus on deporting convicted criminals — at +48) substack.com/profile/4791...
When forecasting future elections, uncertainty with regards to temporal drift is a far bigger factor than individual candidates shifting their ideology. Look at these uncertainty intervals! anyone who says that taking X position will improve your results by Y +/- 0.5pp is underestimating uncertainty
JUST IN: Democrats flip a red seat in the Texas Senate.
Taylor Rehmet wins against Leigh Wambsganss, a conservative activist who helped lead right-wing efforts to take over TX school boards.
With all early vote, and 95% of precincts, in, Dem up 57/43.
Trump won this seat by 17% in Tarrant County.
well then it hasn’t been a very successful one
This is gonna sound crazy, but it might have been the consistent history of cheating.
"The number of downloads...surged by 529% after Mr. Mamdani’s news conference"
"there had been 3,000 people on a waiting list to access a limited number of e-book copies"
"2,000 people applied for a library card over the weekend, roughly twice as many as had applied by this time last year"
A win!
philly in addition to juntos, there’s this no ICE general meeting at friends center next week
Screenshot of a data visualization titled “The Cost of American Exceptionalism,” subtitled “What would change if the U.S. matched the OECD average?” The page explains that each card shows how outcomes would change if the U.S. matched the average of 31 peer democracies. Below, a section labeled “Economy & Inequality” displays eight cards comparing U.S. figures to OECD averages. Highlights include: +$19K per household per year in redistributed income and +$96K in redistributed wealth if the top 1% matched OECD shares; a 71% lower CEO-to-worker pay ratio (from 354× to 101×); 50 million more workers with union coverage; 26 million more people with health insurance; $2.1 trillion saved annually in healthcare spending; $691 less per person per year in prescription drug costs; and intergenerational economic mobility being twice as high. Each card shows the U.S. value alongside the OECD average.
If there's one empirical insight I'd want everyone to understand about American politics, it's this:
America's problems are solved problems. Just not here.
What would change if the US simply matched the average of 31 peer democracies? Not Denmark or Norway. Just the middle of the pack. 🧵
Wow — New YouGov / Economist poll:
46% support abolishing ICE
43% oppose abolishing ICE
This is the first time that abolishing ICE has received net positive support
At least Philly can get rid of Patullo quickly.
#NFLsky
I drew this remix of the old meme because I find myself constantly annoyed
NEW from me:
The US is losing blue-collar jobs for the first time since early COVID or the Great Recession—the country has lost 65k jobs over the last year as manufacturing, transport, & mining employment decline, while growth in construction has nearly zeroed out
www.apricitas.io/p/america-is...
we did it! a perfectly structured democracy. it's got checks, it's got balances. this thing is made to last. there's only one weakness: bad guys. if somehow some bad guys who don't care about decorum got elected they could basically just tip the whole thing over. luckily such men are unelectable
Me, in the before: "I don't really get why people want 3D printers. Maybe I'll see if I can borrow [eldest child]'s printer to get this print done.
Me, 5 minutes after printing The Boat: "Oh no."