Nikolas Gvosdev

Velina Tchakarova on X: "Russia has suddenly received immense geopolitical leverage through the circumstances following the practical closure of Strait of Hormuz - oil and oil products, LNG, fertilizers, helium, sulphur acid, food commodities, unrestricted commerce and maritime corridors. You name it!" / X Russia has suddenly received immense geopolitical leverage through the circumstances following the practical closure of Strait of Hormuz - oil and oil products, LNG, fertilizers, helium, sulphur acid, food commodities, unrestricted commerce and maritime corridors. You name it!

Per @vtchakarova.bsky.social Russia is leveraging the #trilemma … x.com/vtchakarova/...

Depleted oil reserve leaves US exposed as Iran war pushes up prices Donald Trump has not fulfilled a vow to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve that was drained by Joe Biden

14 years ago in pages of @WPReview had argued to safeguard U.S. shale production by guaranteeing purchase for SPR. Idea got no traction b/c of environmental and free-marketeer objections. www.ft.com/content/d546...

Folks, there is always more than one option. #POTUS can react to reports of Russian targeting aid to Iran by increasing support to Ukraine. Or it may alert him to bureaucratic inertia of U.S. aid to Ukraine continuing … and he might then offer a mutual cessation.

Energy and fertilizer exports being disrupted by Hormuz closure highlight the reality of the #trilemma as a national security problem.

Apparently the answer is yes … www.ft.com/content/ab7d...

European capitals push back as Ukraine seeks fast-track EU membership Ukraine’s push for a fast track into the European Union as part of any ​peace deal has hit stiff resistance from EU governments, who do not want to open the Pandora’s box of problems that they fear a ...

Azerbaijan’s approach-eschewing full integration with Euro-Atlantic institutions and bargaining over red lines with Russia-seems to have produced a better outcome.

www.reuters.com/world/europe...

Per @sariarhohavren.bsky.social China may start escorting its own tankers out of the Gulf … x.com/sariarhohavr...

Russian Oil Cargoes Swing Back to India as Iran War Hits Supply Two Russian oil cargoes that had been signaling East Asia as a destination have switched to India, according to ship-tracking data, suggesting New Delhi is becoming more willing to take the crude as t...

Russian oil exports to India apparently resuming … www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Deterrence, Iran and the Sampson Option As the U.S.

Deterrence, Iran and the Sampson Option:
www.linkedin.com/pulse/deterr...

#transactionalism #roundabout | Nikolas Gvosdev Over the past year, we have seen the limits of Russian foreign policy #transactionalism both for Moscow but also for its partners. As Russia has lost the ability to "deliver" some of its partners like...

Russia doesn't have alliances; it has transactional relationships. When its partners don't benefit, they move on; not surprising that an Iran that wanted to hold Russia at arms length can't expect Russian intervention. www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...

US to Exempt Rosneft’s German Unit From Sanctions Indefinitely The US will exempt the German unit of Rosneft PJSC from sanctions against the Russian oil major indefinitely, according to a person familiar with the matter, marking a win for Berlin after intense dip...

US will indefinitely exempt Rosneft’s German unit from sanctions. Suggests we are running up against the limits of sanctions especially with the current crisis in the Gulf …
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Deterrence, Iran and the Sampson Option As the U.S.

Do we believe that Iran would "take out" as much of the Persian Gulf infrastructure if it thought defeat was imminent? Has the #Sampson_Option been misguided as a basis for deterrence?
www.linkedin.com/pulse/deterr...

Another sign of this concern … www.reuters.com/business/ene...

And as a sign of that shift … x.com/ft/status/20...

Europe’s energy shift from Russia has been predicated on major replacement supplies coming from the Middle East. That is now in doubt …

Yes we (Morgan Bazilian & Macdonald Amoah) are tracking the number of munitions at the Payne Institute used by all sides in the Iran War! Just to tease our friends with a taste, we will have an… |... Yes we (Morgan Bazilian & Macdonald Amoah) are tracking the number of munitions at the Payne Institute used by all sides in the Iran War! Just to tease our friends with a taste, we will have an articl...

Weapons expended tracker for the Persian Gulf conflict …

www.linkedin.com/posts/jahara...

Yes, one side did not want to give guarantees, so hence the English, but was willing to live with "guarantees" expressed in the other languages.

Ray Takeyh's co-authored @wsj.com commentary: "Whatever hesitancy kept the Iranian elite from crossing the nuclear threshold has evaporated." www.wsj.com/opinion/iran...

Why Language Matters--And Making Translations Accurate Thanks to Mariana Budjeryn for reminding me of a subtle but critical point: that the famed Budapest Memorandum of 1994, which played a fundamental role in finalizing Ukraine's divestment of the Soviet...

Language can matter. In this short look at the #Budapest_Memorandum how differences in word choice among the English, Russian and Ukrainian titles can change the impact and focus of the document.

www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-la...

From @saradzhyan : he has put together more reactions from Russian sources to the U.S. operation against Iran: www.linkedin.com/posts/simon-...

From Simon Saradzhyan: he has put together more reactions from Russian sources to the U.S. operation against Iran: www.linkedin.com/posts/simon-...

A perusal of what's being said/discussed on Russian channels ... and how the Iran operation may strengthen the "party of war" in the Kremlin: www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...

#godfather_doctrine #potus | Nikolas Gvosdev Prior to the start of operations against Iran, some U.S. Naval War College colleagues and I were discussing John C. Hulsman and A. Wess Mitchell's book from the 2000s, the #Godfather_Doctrine. (https:...

Is U.S. foreign policy guided by Michael Corleone's dictum: "Today I settle all family business?" www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...

Carolyn Kissane with factors we should be looking at in assessing how energy markets will be responding:

www.linkedin.com/posts/caroly...

#indoabrahamic #imec #middlecorridor | Nikolas Gvosdev Echoing what Ashley Zumwalt-Forbes says here about the viability of the #IndoAbrahamic #IMEC corridor critical minerals strategy ... also if the conflict goes on, and creates more damage in the region...

Does a prolonged Gulf conflict imperil the U.S. critical minerals strategy? www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...

Some ships seem to be moving and perhaps wanting to get ahead of any decision by Lloyds on insurance coverage.

#middlecorridor | Nikolas Gvosdev Well, with what Michelle Wiese Bockmann reporting what she's hearing about traffic via the Straits of Hormuz, and what Peter Sand has commented in terms of the current conflict impacting any return to...

Why the #middlecorridor becomes even more critical in light of the current conflict with Iran ... www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...

A lot of people are looking at this as insider trading but it's an even bigger issue for national security if there was advance warning of air strikes.

We're six hours into the latest round of US/Israeli-Iran conflict, and it's already escalated beyond the parameters of the June conflict, with Iran targeting US bases across the GCC. More red ... We're six hours into the latest round of US/Israeli-Iran conflict, and it's already escalated beyond the parameters of the June conflict, with Iran targeting US bases across the GCC. More red lines ar...

Size and timing of oil shock may depend on how much excess oil was already being stored outside the conflict zone and whether the conflict exceeds that cushion. www.linkedin.com/posts/jamie-...

Just as Georgia and Ukraine learned that there was no such thing as “virtual” NATO, Iran is learning there is no such thing as “virtual” nuclear deterrence.