Mischiefs of Faction

Anatomy of a vote Watching House Republicans seize victory from the jaws of defeat.

ICYMI: @mattngreen.bsky.social writes about how the close House vote on the special rule to consider a government funding bill went down: misofact.substack.com/p/anatomy-of...

Discharge petitions and the fragile authority of Republican leaders Speaker Johnson is trying to lead a House whose members increasingly reject strong party leadership.

@mattngreen.bsky.social writes about the rise of majority party defections on discharge petitions and the weakening authority of House GOP leaders. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...

How much trouble is Speaker Johnson in? Johnson is likely to survive this Congress, but the speakership is not the secure position it once was.

How much trouble is Speaker Mike Johnson in? The latest post from @mattngreen.bsky.social. misofact.substack.com/p/how-much-t...

Lessons from the longest shutdown ever What I got wrong and (arguably) got right

@mattngreen.bsky.social discusses what he got wrong -- and perhaps got right -- about the shutdown. The latest from Mischiefs of Faction. misofact.substack.com/p/lessons-fr...

Are Members of Congress Pushing Back against President Trump? Part III Explaining GOP Resistance

Matthew Green's latest on Mischiefs of Faction: what data tell us about the types of Republicans in Congress who resist Trump -- and why do so. misofact.substack.com/p/are-member...

Not the hill to die on A government shutdown would not stop Trump or restore legislative democracy.

Should Senate Democrats deliberately shut down the government to stop Trump? In his latest post at Mischiefs, Matt Green argues no. misofact.substack.com/p/not-the-hi...

Dr. Smith helps to put Gavin Newsom's recent political surge and strategy into historical perspective at this latest MoF post. The Founders designed the system to leverage politicians' ambitions to serve as a check on power.

Democrats and Republicans Disagree about What Makes a Winner Democrats tend to think Republicans win when they moderate their position; Republicans tend to think they win when they turn out the base. Both are driving forces.

Turns out it's not really true that Democrats want to fall in love (with their candidates) while Republicans fall in line. Great post at @misofact.bsky.social by @bcburden.bsky.social using cool data he, et al collected by talking to party convention delegates.
misofact.substack.com/p/democrats-...

Thank you for this great contribution. Is it surprising that Republicans have more uniformity in their beliefs about what works for both parties, while Dems are more heterogeneous?

Democrats and Republicans Disagree about What Makes a Winner Democrats tend to think Republicans win when they moderate their position; Republicans tend to think they win when they turn out the base. Both are driving forces.

Do parties do better when they moderate to appeal to the median voter, or stick to principles? @bcburden.bsky.social shows that Republicans believe they do better sticking to principles but think Dems do better by moderating. Dems have an entirely different POV. misofact.substack.com/p/democrats-...

Two weeks in August Some impressions of domestic politics after taking a hiatus from the news.

Matthew Green took a two-week break from the news. His thoughts on what happened in U.S. politics during that period: misofact.substack.com/p/two-weeks-...

Scandals and Wedge Issues Why the Epstein affair has been an ideal topic for Democrats to exploit.

Scandals and Wedge Issues: Why the Epstein affair has been an ideal topic for Democrats to exploit.
(@mattngreen.bsky.social @misofact.bsky.social)
misofact.substack.com/p/scandals-a...

Authoritarians are attacking universities. Here's how it's going at one public school. I'm publicly documenting an event timeline to help bring order to the chaotic nature of events and help other schools plan the responses they are likely going to need.

To document and make sense of the executive overreach at her university, @jenvictor.bsky.social provides a timeline of key events. Transparency is the best disinfectant.
misofact.substack.com/p/authoritar...

Scandals and Wedge Issues Why the Epstein affair has been an ideal topic for Democrats to exploit.

Wedge issue + scandal = a politically fruitful topic for the minority party. An analysis of the Epstein papers affair by @mattngreen.bsky.social. misofact.substack.com/p/scandals-a...

Partisan polarization destroys democracies. Here's how. As polarization grows, partisans struggle to respect one another, then fail to show self-restraint. Loss of these norms erodes the institutions that create free societies.

What happens when societies polarize by partisanship? First the norm of mutual tolerance erodes, then institutional forbearance. The US case is textbook under Trump 2.0, explains @jenvictor.bsky.social

open.substack.com/pub/misofact...

Will the “One, Big Beautiful Bill” hurt Republicans in 2026? What political science tells us.

@mattngreen.bsky.social reviews what political science literature, and his own recent research, suggests will be the electoral consequences -- if any -- of voting for the One Big Beautiful Bill. misofact.substack.com/p/will-the-o...

The big GOP reconciliation bill is now law. Did Trump browbeat Congress into passing it? The president helped get the bill across the finish line, but so did others – and Trump used tactics with lawmakers that are typical for presidents.

@mattngreen.bsky.social argues that Trump didn't bully Congress into passing last week's reconciliation bill, nor was he the only person who helped get it enacted. misofact.substack.com/p/the-big-go...

Why do populist governments pass unpopular policies? Populists don't stay in power by being popular—they stay in power by keeping people mad.

In my latest at @misofact.bsky.social I draw on political science findings to explain why Trump’s populist government passed a deeply unpopular and regressive set of policies. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...

Why do populist governments pass unpopular policies? Populists don't stay in power by being popular—they stay in power by keeping people mad.

New at Mischiefs of Faction, @jenvictor.bsky.social explains why populist governments sometimes pass very unpopular policies.
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open.substack.com/pub/misofact...

Do Voters Support the “One Big Beautiful Bill”? And Does it Matter? Lawmakers respond to many inputs. The public’s preferences are just one of them.

@mattngreen.bsky.social asks, do voters support the GOP's "One Big Beautiful Bill"? And if not, does it matter? open.substack.com/pub/misofact...

Are Members of Congress Pushing Back against President Trump? Part II Some (Small) Signs of GOP Resistance

@mattngreen.bsky.social notes some early signs of resistance to Trump from congressional Republicans. misofact.substack.com/p/are-member...

What the giant House spending bill tells us about Republicans’ vision for America Why it’s a bad idea to let the guy who bankrupted casinos run your fiscal house, in four charts.

My latest at @misofact.bsky.social breaks down the audacity of the "Big Beautiful Bill" -- spending more to do less, putting the US on weak financial footing.
open.substack.com/pub/misofact...

What the giant House spending bill tells us about Republicans’ vision for America Why it’s a bad idea to let the guy who bankrupted casinos run your fiscal house, in four charts.

Can the US afford the "Big Beautiful Bill?" @jenvictor.bsky.social breaks it down. [Spoiler: No.]
open.substack.com/pub/misofact...

How shrinking the government adds power to the presidency Asserting authority to cut government is DOGE's most profound accomplishment to date

Trump’s dramatic, unauthorized cuts to federal government are an executive power grab, I argue at @misofact.bsky.social

open.substack.com/pub/misofact...

How shrinking the government adds power to the presidency Asserting authority to cut government is DOGE's most profound accomplishment to date

“Trump math”—how federal cuts are an expansion of the executive power. @jenvictor.bsky.social explains.

open.substack.com/pub/misofact...

Can confirm.

Tariffs and Board Games One example of how Trump’s tariffs affect niche industries that Americans value.

Playing board games is a fun hobby for many -- one that will be harmed by Trump's protectionist tariffs, as @mattngreen.bsky.social explains. misofact.substack.com/p/tariffs-an...

Are Members of Congress Pushing Back against President Trump? Part I: What Congressional Democrats are doing

@mattngreen.bsky.social discusses some of the ways that congressional Democrats have been pushing back against Trump and the GOP - despite being in the deep minority. misofact.substack.com/p/are-member...

The US crisis is political, not constitutional The Constitution provides instructions for how to resolve the crises generated by executive overreach, but partisanship thwarts the remedy.

Must read this morning from @jenvictor.bsky.social @misofact.bsky.social “US Constitution is imperfect, but it has clear instructions for resolving the current crisis.” misofact.substack.com/p/the-us-cri...