Jonathan Erdman

Hawaii Forecast: Flooding, Snow And Wind | Weather.com Some of the most active weather in the country is expected to be in Hawaii over the next few days.

Hawaii checklist:
✅More flooding rain
✅High winds
✅At least a few severe t-storms possible
✅Big Island summit blizzard conditions
Kitchen sink...probably not. 😆

As pointed out first by @wxmanms1.bsky.social, the list of hottest March days on record in Phoenix...and our forecast next week.

Historic March heat wave for Desert Southwest ahead. 😲

A follow up...per the April 1961 Storm Data document, that 4/23/1961 Kankakee hail size (6 inches) was "unofficial".

So the standing state record appears to be 4.75 inch diameter hail in Minooka on June 10, 2015.

Per NWS-Romeoville, there were 6 separate reports of hail larger than that!

What are the odds of this coincidence?

The largest hail in NCEI's database dating to 1950 in Illinois is a 6-inch stone in...wait for it...Kankakee County on April 23, 1961.

A state climate extremes committee will examine this.

Sometimes, a higher risk severe weather forecast features one remarkable, long-lived supercell.

Tuesday, this supercell produced severe weather and multiple tornadoes for almost 4.5 hours over 121 miles from near Minonk, IL into Starke Co. IN.

Radar history courtesy of NCAR/RAL.

Over the last 7 years, SPC has issued level 4 outlooks an average of 11 to 12 days a year.

First level 4 (of 5) SPC severe risk anywhere in the country in over 7 months, since July 28, 2025.

Threat for strong tornadoes in red shaded area by early evening.

On This Date: Snow Plow Reveals Truck Buried In Iowa Blizzard | Weather.com What's the largest object you've ever found buried in the snow?

One year ago today, one of the weirdest things we saw in 2025's weather.

Intensity level 2 now in just-updated SPC Day 1 severe outlook.

Potential for tornadoes of EF3+ this evening in parts of N. IL, N. IN, extreme southern Lower MI.

Severe Outbreak Recap: Deadly Michigan, Oklahoma Tornadoes | Weather.com The first full week of meteorological spring brought a severe weather threat to the Central U.S. with 24 confirmed tornadoes and multiple fatalities.

NWS has confirmed 24 tornadoes from last week's outbreak.

Unfortunately, a much larger fraction than usual were both strong (8 EF2 or EF3) and were killers (4 of them).

Recap 👇

I find reading NWS damage surveys fascinating.

In the Union Lake/City, MI EF3, an example that EF scale is a function of not only what it hits, but the quality of construction.

This may have been an even stronger tornado.

(Photo: Ryan Harriot via NWS-N. Indiana)

Quite a contrast in NOAA's Feb. (and DJF/winter) US summary:

Record warmest winter in nine states.
Cooler than average in eight others.
Among top 10 driest on record in 19 states.

Classic upper Midwest March forecast.

One day of record warmth (72˚ Monday), t-storms this evening, possible snow this weekend, then cold.

Wonder what negative rainfall means?

Just stronger evapotranspiration than average? 😆

On This Date: The Only March Hurricane On Record | Weather.com Not every single Atlantic hurricane has fallen within hurricane season. This early 20th century even is probably the most bizarre example.

On this date: the only known March hurricane (or tropical cyclone) on record in the Atlantic Basin.

And it wasn't a "fish storm", either.

Melissa joined quite a list of retired M storms, all since 1995:

Milton 2024 (tied strongest Gulf)
Michael 2018 (Cat. 5 Fla. Panhandle)
Maria 2017 (PR catastrophe)
Matthew 2016 (Haiti catastrophe)
Michelle 2001 (Cat 4 Cuba)
Mitch 1998 (C. America; 9,000+ killed)
Marilyn 1995 (PR, VI billion $)

The 100 Retired Atlantic Hurricane Names Since 1954 | Weather.com They're the worst storms the Atlantic Basin has generated since the mid-20th century. This "Hall of Infamy" is a list of names no longer used for current or future storms after one version was so dead...

The full list of Atlantic hurricane names retired since 1954.

One letter leads them all.

US severe convective storm (SCS) activity to ramp up. The Storm Prediction Center already flags 4 of the next 8 days with likely activity.

Outbreaks starting in March have accounted for a notable portion of annual SCS losses for insurers:

2020: 12%
2021: 12%
2022: 9%
2023: 20%
2024: 15%
2025: 26%

Classic "spring warmth tease" next week, followed by a reality check.

Parts of the Plains will have severe weather fatigue today - Tuesday. #rinserepeat

Where we are in SPC's new intensity forecasts for Day 3 (Friday). Mention of "strong tornadoes" (EF2+) possible in hatched CIG1 area.

And a shoutout to March 2022. which was the March tornado leader in the U.S. before last year's preliminary count.

On This Date: Jackson, Mississippi, Struck By F5 Tornado | Weather.com It's not too early in the year for violent tornadoes. Such was the case 60 years ago in this capital city. Here's what happened.

60 years ago today, Mississippi's deadliest tornado and one of its very few 5-rated twisters tore through part of Jackson.

First, Albuquerque, NM crushed its previous record warmest winter in 135 years.

Then yesterday, their record earliest 80˚ high.

Straight out of the March textbook for the upper Midwest next week.

Warm tease🌡️
With wind 🌬️
Then t-storms 🌩️
Then cold 🥶

March Tornadoes Have Been Much More Numerous Recently | Weather.com It's typically only the kickoff of active spring severe weather. But in recent years, including 2025, March outbreaks have been among the worst of the year. Here's what you need to know.

With 2025 still "preliminary", the 3 highest March tornado tallies in the U.S. have happened in the past 4 years.

And in those 3 years, March counts have been on par or even higher than May.

Perspective: 👇

March Weather: 5 Ways It's Frustrating, From Snowstorms To Tornadoes | Weather.com March can be the wildest weather month of the year. Here are some of the things you might see that span the weather spectrum from snowstorms to tornadoes.

As a meteorologist and resident of the northern U.S., I have a very conflicted view of March weather.

US Hottest Winter Temperature Just Happened In Texas Thursday | Weather.com It's a preliminary finding, but stunning, no less. Heat typical of the heart of summer scorched South Texas in late February. Here's what happened.

Here's the preliminary findings from NWS-Brownsville on what may be America's hottest winter temperature on record.

NOAA has rated the February 22-24, 2026 Nor'easter a Category 3 (out of 5) on the Regional Snowfall Index (RSI) scale.

This places it as the #17 most impactful snow storm event - based on total snowfall, storm size, and societal impact - for the Northeast since 1900.

Also was apparently a 107˚ at Falcon Lake (on the Rio Grande) on Feb. 23, 2017. So...still a lot we're not yet certain about.