Jakub Steiner

Učené společnosti děkuji za přijetí do svých řad i za uspořádání přednášky.

Díky!

For clarity, it is a terrible shame that a prime minister of an EU country (in which I happen to be born) goes to Kremlin and begs the mass murderer for oil.

There were times when Eastern Europe had attention of the West. Now, when prime minister of Slovakia visits Putin in Kremlin, it doesn’t even get on the front page of CNN. Consistent with my inability to entertain my western colleagues with eastern anecdotes. We became the hopeless end of the world.

I understand the argument for the lunch rooms but I’m a little afraid to ask for a clarification on the bathroom argument.

UZH, a university that can afford to waste this view on its bathrooms windows.

The paper is here: home.cerge-ei.cz/steiner/Grow...

Almost all wealth is then generated alongside an optimal large deviation that enjoys a high enough excess growth rate but isn't too rare. We then get an extension of Kelly's insight: optimal policy redistributes incidental luck but minimizes systematic redistribution as much as constraints allow.

We envision redistribution policy as a stochastic rule that moves dollars around people. As it turns out, Large deviations theory has a bite. Some dollars happen to be lucky in the Forest Gump's sense: they often end up in the hands of people at those periods when these are productive.

For our application though, Kelly's optimal allocation may not be feasible due to inequality constraints, and thus we solve a constrained version of Kelly's betting problem. For this, we develop a new solution method.

Maintaining the optimal hedge requires redistribution (portfolio rebalancing) from those who got lucky to those who didn’t. According to Kelly’s (1956) optimality condition, however, this redistribution isn’t systematic: once luck is averaged out, it should cancel out.

We view individuals as financial assets with random returns. Choosing and maintaining wealth distribution at the macro level is thus akin to managing a private asset portfolio. In both cases, hedging is essential to sustain an optimal growth rate, which involves allocating wealth to the underdogs.

In a bit of a random walk, Larry Samuelson and I wrote a macro paper on the impact of redistribution on economic growth. It has now been (cond.) accepted by AER:Insights with the feedback "This is weird but interesting." I am glad our profession gives a chance to heresies. Let me share it with you.

Forthcoming article by Nick Netzer, Arthur Robson @jaksteiner.bsky.social and Pavel Kocourek "Risk Perception: Measurement and Aggregation" @eeanews.bsky.social

Teaching materials available: www.eeassoc.org/teaching-mat...

doi.org/10.1093/jeea...

What about a little competition for the most bro-ey email from a student? Here goes my humble kickoff:

Hi
I was not able to come to the last lecture so I was wondering how far did you get in the slides of lecture 9?
Best regards
XY

Pokud jsou tedy ekonomove vedci :-)

Since none of us reads these, can we just agree on not having introductions?

It is to be seen whether the alternative to X, where people passionately argue about the role of math in the dismal science, instead of transgender rights, will fly.

I'd be happy to be added. Thanks for doing this.