A striking finding in our Alberta poll: the Liberals lead in Edmonton.
Vote intention:
• Liberal 47%
• Conservative 40%
Urban Alberta is becoming a much more competitive federal battleground.
Details: abacusdata.ca/federal-pol...
UCP hold a 13-point lead in Alberta (49% to 36%), powered by huge margins in rural areas and smaller cities. Edmonton leans NDP. Healthcare ranks second overall and approval on managing it is deeply negative.
Details: abacusdata.ca/alberta-pol...
Alberta mood is cautious: 56% say the province is on the wrong track. Affordability dominates, but healthcare is the #2 issue and a clear weak spot for the Smith government. Still, the UCP lead 49% to 36%.
Details: abacusdata.ca/alberta-pol...
Pollsters don’t just measure opinions.
At our best, we help leaders understand unmet needs. The things people may not even be able to articulate, but deeply feel.
That’s what we talked about on the MNL Show.
Watch here: youtu.be/SrzRIStbS20...
The future of Abacus Data is about investing ahead of demand. Strengthening our systems. Expanding into consumer markets. Developing proprietary products.
Kelsey Lander’s leadership is an important part of that next chapter.
More info: abacusdata.ca/welcoming-k...
NEW POLL: Canadian confidence in the U.S. is eroding.
• 67% say the U.S. is not a reliable ally
• 35% worry Canada relies too heavily on it
• EU now matches the U.S. in top-two importance
• Nearly half support EU membership
Details: abacusdata.ca/canadas-str...
Our latest Alberta poll finds the UCP at 49% and the NDP at 36% among committed voters. The UCP’s lead is driven by overwhelming strength outside Edmonton and Calgary. But healthcare is emerging as a key vulnerability for the government.
Details: abacusdata.ca/alberta-pol...
Only 26% of Albertans support Alberta becoming a sovereign country, while 64% oppose it. But 53% believe Premier Danielle Smith would vote to separate in a referendum. That perception gap is politically significant. #ableg
Details: abacusdata.ca/alberta-ind...
If Alberta held a referendum today, 26% would support separation, 64% would oppose. But 53% believe Premier Danielle Smith would vote Yes. The political risk lies in that perception gap. #ableg
Details: abacusdata.ca/alberta-ind...
While most Albertans reject separation (64%), a majority believe Premier Danielle Smith would support it in a referendum. When perception and public sentiment diverge, politics gets complicated. #ableg
Details: abacusdata.ca/alberta-ind...
With Tory stepping aside, the default “wait and see” moment in Toronto politics is over. The early data points to a two-candidate race. And in a head-to-head, the numbers show a contest that could go either way.
My analysis: open.substack.com/pub/davidco...
There’s a clear intensity gap on independence: 56% strongly oppose, just 13% strongly support. Even so, 53% think Premier Smith would vote to separate. Public perception doesn’t mirror public opinion. #ableg
Details: abacusdata.ca/alberta-ind...
Alberta independence remains a minority position: 64% oppose, 26% support. But more than half of Albertans believe their Premier would vote to leave Canada. That perception gap carries political risk. #ableg
Details: abacusdata.ca/alberta-ind...
Support for Alberta independence sits at 26%, with strong opposition at 56%. Still, 53% of Albertans believe Danielle Smith would vote Yes in a referendum. That disconnect is worth watching. #ableg
Details: abacusdata.ca/alberta-ind...
As our client base grows, so does the ambition of the work. Kelsey Lander joins us as Senior Director, Research Services to help elevate our research design, strengthen delivery, and mentor the next generation of talent at Abacus.
More info: abacusdata.ca/welcoming-k...
Business leaders warn about the risks of losing CUSMA.
But fewer than half of Canadians agree it would be bad for the country.
55% say it would make no difference or be good.
That perception gap matters.
Details: abacusdata.ca/fewer-than-...
The biggest shift I’m seeing in the data?
A move from demanding relief to demanding reassurance.
When people are angry, they want someone to fix it.
When they’re afraid, they want someone to protect them.
That changes what leadership looks like.
Watch here: youtu.be/SrzRIStbS20...
Just 1 in 4 Albertans back independence (26%), while nearly two thirds oppose it (64%). Yet a majority (53%) think Premier Smith would vote to separate. The politics of perception may matter more than the numbers. #ableg
Details: abacusdata.ca/alberta-ind...
NEW: Canadians' global outlook is shifting.
• U.S. favourability down 9 pts; 68% now negative
• EU tied with U.S. as top-two partner today
• EU leads as most important partner in 3–5 years
• 74% support deeper EU cooperation
Details: abacusdata.ca/canadas-str...
Toronto Mayoral Election
Head-to-head ballot test:
Chow 37%
Bradford 34%
29% undecided
Among voters familiar with both, it tightens to 39%–38%. When people know both candidates, the race is effectively even.
My analysis: open.substack.com/pub/davidco...
Abacus Data is entering its next phase of growth. New markets. New products. Bigger questions from clients. Bringing Kelsey Lander onto the team strengthens our ability to deliver thoughtful, high-impact research at scale.
More info: abacusdata.ca/welcoming-k...
Here’s the question I can’t stop thinking about:
65% of Canadians say they would rather be born in 1950 than today.
Why, in a time of unprecedented medical and technological progress, do so many feel less optimistic about the future?
We dig into it here:
Watch here: youtu.be/SrzRIStbS20...
Nearly half of Canadians now support Canada joining the European Union.
• 48% in favour (up 2 pts from last year)
• 28% opposed
• 63% support among those who approve of the federal government
EU membership isn’t policy but the openness is notable.
Details: abacusdata.ca/canadas-str...
—
As the 2026 CUSMA review approaches, public anxiety is lower than many assume.
Just 45% see its potential end as bad for Canada.
For most Canadians, the agreement itself is not emotionally salient.
Details: abacusdata.ca/fewer-than-...
Europe is gaining ground.
• 74% support deeper strategic cooperation with the EU
• EU tied with the U.S. as a top-two partner today (48%)
• EU leads as Canada’s most important partner 3–5 years from now (52%)
Diversification is becoming the dominant instinct.
Details: abacusdata.ca/canadas-str...
With John Tory officially out, Toronto’s 2026 mayoral race snaps into focus. What looked crowded is increasingly shaping up as Olivia Chow vs. Brad Bradford. Our latest polling suggests this is not symbolic. It is competitive. And it is winnable.
My analysis: open.substack.com/pub/davidco...
Two in three Canadians say the United States is NOT a reliable ally.
• 67% say not very or not at all reliable
• Only 25% see the U.S. as reliable
• 39% say “not reliable at all”
Skepticism is no longer marginal. It’s mainstream.
Details: abacusdata.ca/canadas-str...
Only 45% of Canadians say the end of CUSMA would be bad for Canada.
More than half believe it would make no difference or could even be good.
That disconnect with boardrooms and trade insiders is politically significant.
Details: abacusdata.ca/fewer-than-...
NEW: Canadians still see the U.S. as our most important partner today but impressions have dropped sharply.
• Positive views of the U.S. down 9 pts
• The U.S. ranks last on favourability among countries tested
Canada’s strategic outlook is shifting.
Details: abacusdata.ca/canadas-str...
On securing a fair deal with the U.S., confidence drops to 55%.
Only 1 in 5 are very confident.
Canadians trust the approach, but negotiations are seen as high stakes and uncertain.
Details: abacusdata.ca/fewer-than-...
