Talmon Joseph Smith

kill the imposter syndrome in you head because not only is there someone out there doing it worse than you, they're also using chat gpt to do it

Anyways.

They just keep doing it to 'em

*COSTCO 2Q TOTAL CO. COMP SALES INCL GAS, FX +7.4%, EST. +6.72%
*COSTCO 2Q TOTAL CO. COMP SALES EX-GAS, FX +6.7%, EST. +5.9%

a man in a suit and tie is talking to another man in an elevator and says `` not great , bob '' . ALT: a man in a suit and tie is talking to another man in an elevator and says `` not great , bob '' .

AI credit risk is back on the menu

sherwood.news/markets/the-...

Also, at the top of the episode, a little big idea from me: eliminate all federal income tax deductions but the standard deduction, and then quadruple it to $65k/individual, $130k/household.

“.. If Trump had any sense he would be ostentatiously pushing [refunds] through quickly, perhaps even labelling them a tariff dividend and hoping no one notices ..” but he “cannot grasp quite how unpopular they have become.”

@alanbeattie.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/57d9...

Jensen keeps saying compute = revenues but what investors would really like is to know that compute = free cash flow growth at some not-too-distant point in the future. $NVDA

Many workers have missed shifts without jobs being destroyed making it challenging to measure labor impacts with conventional sources.

We use real-time daily data from Homebase to measure impacts. Thanks to UChicago and Homebase for making the data available.
#EconSky #NumbersDay

What the Supreme Court’s Tariff Ruling Means for the Energy Transition In this emergency episode, Rob unpacks the decision with international supply chain specialist Jonas Nahm.

Today on a special emergency episode of Shift Key: I’m joined by the great @jonasnahm.com to discuss the big SCOTUS tariff ruling; what it means for solar, EVs, and electricity; and why it’s time (alas) to learn about the other tariff powers the president can use — as well as their limitations.

x.com/talmonsmith/...

screenshot didnt have full context. tho i understand why it caused a misunderstanding

talmon joseph smith on X: "right on cue: a Morgan Stanley explanation for the morning yawn https://t.co/cxAtrWJr2p" / X right on cue: a Morgan Stanley explanation for the morning yawn https://t.co/cxAtrWJr2p

x.com/talmonsmith/...

WSJ EDITORIAL BOARD: “.. If your tariff policy is so unpopular that you have to bully the central bank into not talking about it, maybe it’s time for a new policy.”

@wsj.com
www.wsj.com/opinion/kevi...

OpenAI Funding on Track to Top $100 Billion With Latest Round OpenAI is close to finalizing the first phase of a new funding round that is likely to bring in more than $100 billion, according to people familiar with the matter, a record-breaking financing deal t...

Full story link.

BTW: the round is being discussed in two phases with $MSFT, $AMZN, $NVDA, and SoftBank in the first phase...approaching $100bn. Then there's a follow-on for VC, SWFs, etc that will raise the total "substantially higher". $150bn or more is plausible if that's right.

A core part of existing peacefully on forum-derived online spaces is being in overall amiable and enjoyable parasocial community with people that you think are totally insane on like 1-2 things. Generally insightful and funny person who believes in violent Louisiana independence, etc.

RAMPELL: “.. we had less job growth all of last year than we had in an average month during the Biden administration.”

@crampell.bsky.social
www.thebulwark.com/p/trump-magi...

Today’s CBO report says US consumers pay 95% of tariffs. 🤡

@brendanvduke.bsky.social
www.cbo.gov/system/files...

do we get ready to DTC everything?

The BLS, Jobs Data, And Trust: Justin Wolfers On What Really Happened Is it possible for democracy to win a quiet battle—and nobody notices? This clip tells a three-act story about the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the agency that produces the jobs report and…

My menchies show a lotta distrust about the official jobs numbers right now.

Lemme be clear: I don't believe there's *any* political meddling in these numbers.

While the President has tried to mess with the BLS, he failed. I explain in a lot more detail, here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=kncV...

🌊🌊🌊

Factories Are Becoming More Like Data Centers Large electricity users that employ few workers are not what America’s reindustrialization dreams are made on.

Many Americans dislike data centers because they use land, water, and electricity without creating many permanent jobs.

There’s just one wrinkle: Modern factories increasingly fit the same description.

I wrote about it for @heatmap.news: heatmap.news/energy/facto...

This chart seems to suggest a striking pattern: Kevin Warsh's speeches are consistently hawkish, except when Trump is President and about to appoint a new Fed Chair.
www.economist.com/finance-and-...

what's the good reason for not passing this?

“all I hear is the wind slapping against the gravestones of those who did not make it…” - @clintsmithiii.bsky.social

Navigating a global trust deficit

Trust is quite literally the oil of the market machine. High levels of trust act as a lubricant, enabling even the simplest tractions to move forward with little costs. Low levels toss sand into the gears of the market machine.

the best denunciation of the caricatures that downplay so called low-skill work is just witnessing the orchestra of a busy waffle house.

“The most striking feature in January was the breadth of the rally. Despite an array of risks around Venezuela, Iran, Greenland and Fed independence, nearly every major asset was still in positive territory. - DB

So to summarize: ORCL says over the weekend they'll raise $50bn for additional AI investment, including as much as $20bn in stock, equity securities, and debt. New 8 part offering this morning.

Market LOVES this because assumption is this provides certainty. Stock +6%, CDS are ~32 bps tighter.

Reupping for the AM crowd

PORTLAND MAYOR WILSON:

“.. To those who continue to work for ICE: Resign. To those who control this facility: Leave. … you have lost all legitimacy and replaced it with shame.”

@politico.com
www.politico.com/news/2026/02...

Sorry for the LI grab but

The three tiered system of justice, obvious for all to see:

The poor and marginalized—always under an authoritarian boot

The privileged—judged harshly but mostly fairly in normal times

The elite—complete impunity, maybe sometimes have to pick a fall guy