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Edward Walker

@gnuggat

Retired. 1993-2017 Exec Director of the Berkeley Program in Soviet/Post-Soviet Affairs, Adj Assoc Prof Political Science.

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Latest posts by Edward Walker @gnuggat

AFAIK Icelanders support a referendum on resuming talks but are as of now split on actually joint. So if as export result is yes, negotiations will likely resume followed by a referendum on membership, probably in next year. Fingers crossed.

06.03.2026 19:48 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Good.

06.03.2026 19:45 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
Preview
Russia sending election operatives to Hungary to prop up Orban, media reports Sergei Kiriyenko, a powerful Kremlin aide, has reportedly been tasked with overseeing the Russian operation in Hungary, applying the same set of methods deployed during Moscow-backed meddling in Moldo...

Russia is sending election operatives to Hungary to prop up Orban. The dirty tricks to support Putin’s puppet in the EU will be off the chart.

06.03.2026 08:36 πŸ‘ 519 πŸ” 301 πŸ’¬ 23 πŸ“Œ 19
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Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said the seven Ukrainian nationals who had been held in Budapest have been released.

06.03.2026 17:59 πŸ‘ 34 πŸ” 8 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Cost to US for war on Iran is $3.7bn in first 100 hours, says think tank Most of the costs are not budgeted for, meaning the Pentagon will need to request more funding soon, researchers say.

WAR ON IRAN COSTS U.S. $3.7 BILLION IN FIRST 100 HOURS: The U.S. has spent an estimated $3.7 billion during the first 100 hours of the war, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

06.03.2026 15:27 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Reportedly, a tanker is on fire in the Strait of Hormuz after being attacked by an Iranian drone.

06.03.2026 15:53 πŸ‘ 202 πŸ” 81 πŸ’¬ 24 πŸ“Œ 28

This allows the EU to be non-aligned with the US but anti the Iranian regime. Spain has obviously carved out a stronger position. But Madrid has a) no formal allies in the Gulf and b) cares little about Ukraine, so can risk angering Trump

2/2

06.03.2026 16:13 πŸ‘ 47 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

People keep asking me whether the EU is warming to the US and Israel's war on Iran.

The answer is no

The EU pattern has been exactly the same as the UK's: Against the original US and Israel attacks (seen as illegal). But ready to defend allies in the Gulf when attacked by Iran

06.03.2026 16:13 πŸ‘ 104 πŸ” 28 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 3

Trump is in deep deep trouble politically, which raises the risk of him doing even more reckless things domestically and/or abroad.

06.03.2026 16:25 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Orban raising the heat with first round of elex a little over a month away. US November elex extraordinarily consequential IMO but Hungary pretty darn important as well.

06.03.2026 15:38 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Here we go.

06.03.2026 15:32 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Exactly my take from Albert B. Wolf. NB: β€œThe Kurdish gambit risks producing the opposite of its intended effectβ€”internally by handing the regime’s hardliners a nationalist rallying cry, and externally by spreading secessionist anxiety through every multi-ethnic state on Iran’s periphery.β€œ

06.03.2026 15:29 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Disaster risks rising. Turns out Iran isn’t Venezuela
(which in any case hasn’t been a bonanza for US businesses or done much to mitigate drug flow to the US).

06.03.2026 15:23 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

We’ll see if this starts to move the needle on how Trump feels about RU.

06.03.2026 15:16 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Donald J. Trump C @realDonaldTrump
+
There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER! After that, and the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s), we, and many of our wonderful and very brave allies and partners, will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before. IRAN WILL HAVE A GREAT FUTURE. "MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN (MIGA!)." Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Donald J. Trump C @realDonaldTrump + There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER! After that, and the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s), we, and many of our wonderful and very brave allies and partners, will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before. IRAN WILL HAVE A GREAT FUTURE. "MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN (MIGA!)." Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Unconditional surrender without ground troops. Right.

06.03.2026 14:08 πŸ‘ 1199 πŸ” 189 πŸ’¬ 159 πŸ“Œ 60

See also this. www.usatoday.com/videos/news/...

06.03.2026 14:36 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Without the radar that battery is temporarily out of the fight and that means the Patriot batteries deployed to the base will have higher burden placed on them. THAAD and PATRIOT are meant to work together, with THAAD acting as upper layer and PATRIOT as lower layer.

06.03.2026 01:38 πŸ‘ 124 πŸ” 12 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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Probably first major US loss of the conflict when it comes to ballistic missile defense. One of TPY-2 radars belonging to the THAAD battery deployed to Muwaffaq Salti Airbase in Jordan seems to have been struck. The full radar set goes over $200M.

06.03.2026 01:38 πŸ‘ 603 πŸ” 175 πŸ’¬ 16 πŸ“Œ 36

Thread. My take too.

06.03.2026 14:25 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Good Lord.

06.03.2026 13:47 πŸ‘ 12 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0
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Two top russian armor experts give a solid prediction. With casulties mounting, results no where, economy wobbling russians might try a new (old) card before the house comes down

05.03.2026 21:31 πŸ‘ 309 πŸ” 68 πŸ’¬ 39 πŸ“Œ 5

Again, unconfirmed, but sure has the look of a masterful GUR operation. Gotta wonder if RU (few) LNG tankers are going to stay further off-shore and/or avoid the Med.

06.03.2026 00:21 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Not so long ago this wld have been big news.

05.03.2026 22:44 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

On the question of β€œfish rotting from the head down” and the Trump effect on the IMO mostly very professional and law-abiding post-Vietnam US military, I found this particularly alarming. www.militaryreligiousfreedom.org/2026/03/mrff...

05.03.2026 22:17 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Well, the good news for Cuba (and for RU and China) is this one may not be β€œfinished” for a long time, if ever.

05.03.2026 22:03 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Definitely worrisome. NB: β€œOn Sunday, three F-15E aircraft were shot down in short succession in a single friendly-fire incident over Kuwait… the mysterious event raises uncomfortable questions... America’s ability to collaborate effectively with other countries is very much in doubt under Trump.”’

05.03.2026 22:00 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1

True, except I’d add morale and popular resolve. Morale is maybe a wash (albeit different) bw UKRs & RU, but what’s really different IMO is resolveβ€”much higher for UKRs bc they have so much more at stake. They really really don’t want UKR to become a RU vassal state (or worse), and for good reason.

05.03.2026 21:36 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Israel's campaign to destroy south Beirut and force its population to leave is the most clear and dangerous escalation of the ongoing war with Iran. Its implications will be grave and log term.

05.03.2026 15:08 πŸ‘ 16 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

He’s right about that. No way Orban gives up bashing UKR in lead up to elex (regardless of whether he wins β€” if he loses, he’ll still be lurking around, causing trouble for Hungary and its relations w UKR and the EU).

05.03.2026 15:05 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

IMO a tough one for EU and EUR leaders. Important not to lose publics, so they will want to mitigate oil shock, and bump in RU oil deliveries wld help. But IMO more important is not giving Orban a win in lead up to elex, plus ofc bad to show weakness re RU now (in fact pretty much always).

05.03.2026 14:59 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0