manx cat standing on fence post in front of sunset, reaching upwards with her paw.
This is Dezi, part of our Spokescat program, and we're not even going to make her try and sell you something because, I mean, as great as the library is, we don't have anything that lives up to this level of perfection.
This should be the biggest weather and climate news on your radar today.
You can send an email today to say why dismantling NCAR is a bad idea for everyone: NSF_NCAR@nsf.gov
a lot has already been written about the heat wave next week, including @weatherwest.bsky.social’s posts here. But it is hard to describe how truly outlandish the forecast is for next week. This is looking to be so far outside of anything that’s been observed before in March in the western US.
An oil tanker approaches the strait of Hormuz, collects a gold star and passes through while safely invulnerable
I think I may have cracked it
can this be a solution?
Weather West update on a prolonged and very likely record-breaking March heatwave in the western U.S. that will begin Thursday in some areas & actually not reach its peak for another 7-10 days in some spots. This forecast is truly extraordinary for March.
All 0.5 degree scans from KLOT of the supercell in ILL/IN yesterday evening. Markers show hail reports larger than golf balls and tornado reports as they happened
We might be talking about a different hail record than just the Illinois state record…
A photo of the Chicago skyline at night with a tangle of bright lighting lignite gap the night sky during a thunderstorm
Boom! Had a great ight show over the skyline tonight. Here’s my first big lightning shot of the season.
This is a 2-frame composite. Best as I can tell, two large, branching bolts struck the eastern antenna mast of the Hancock. #wxsky #ilwx
An impressive view of the tornadic supercell that produced massive hail in Illinois earlier today.
Strong to violent tornado south of Kankakee IL
Big tornado near Kankakee IL earlier today
#tornado #weather #illinois #ilwx
MI Gov. Whitmer calling for a fed investigation as to why no tornado watch was issued for Friday's tornadoes in SW MI created a stir in the wx community. It stirred me to explain why I think we need to be open to such criticism & how such an event shows the need for changes. tinyurl.com/y8hnh5bj
Hey folks - I messed up in this original thread, as there WAS an MD issued before the Three Rivers-Union City tornado last week. Please repost the corrected thread instead: bsky.app/profile/sean...
But we can, and should, identify answers to these important questions, and use those answers to identify how we can deliver better forecasts and protect life and property. Instead of seeking a target for blame, let's work together as a weather enterprise to learn and improve. /end
5). How can conditional intensity forecast information be more clearly communicated to partners and the public?
Again - NO INDIVIDUAL OR ORGANIZATION IS TO BLAME HERE.
17/18
4). Why was no meso-beta MD issued for the ongoing and significant tornadic supercell?
5). What non-meteorological influences impact forecaster decisionmaking for outlook, MD, and watch issuance?
16/18
To that end, I want to ask:
1). How did CIGs, or the lack thereof, impact risk perceptions of partners and the public in MI?
2). How was the Meso-alpha MD issued for the warm front severe potential received by core partners? Did the MD lead to public communication changes?
15/18
However, in the face of tragedy we need to be introspective and identify areas for improvement to prevent future disasters. This does not mean finding individuals or organizations to blame and bash - rather, we must identify the systemic issues that snowball into a catastrophe. 14/18
It is important to note that, meteorologically, this was an incredibly challenging forecast for a highly anomalous, low probability, extreme impact event (@wxmanms1.bsky.social discusses this in his substack) - I don't know if I'd have been able to make this forecast myself! 13/18
Next, from a forecast communication standpoint, this event highlights the asymmetric costs of false alarms and missed events on trust - perceived repeated false alarms can chip away at trust but a single perceived missed event can greatly reduce trust (onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...) 12/18
Severe and tornado watches have also been found to impact behavioral intentions, as Gutter et al. (2018) found 36.1% and 51.2% of survey participants would cease activities lasting 30 minutes or longer if a severe/tornado watch was issued for their area (journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...) 11/18
After this MD, no tornado or severe thunderstorm watches were issued in advance of the supercell that produced the MI tornadoes. Although uncommon, severe and tornado watches have previously been issued for small areas and individual supercells in the past, as on 4/30/24 and 4/19/25. 10/18
From a comm research perspective, the effect of MDs on risk perception has not been studied, but they are known to be used by core partners and local NWS offices for situational awareness, as seen in the NOAA HWT (hwt.nssl.noaa.gov) 9/18
On the 6th, a meso-alpha MD was issued for areas of IL, IN, and MI, including Three Rivers and Union City. This MD highlighted that a tornado risk could accompany stronger storms. However, it also includes an intensity forecast, which for tornadoes suggested "up to 95mph" or EF1 tornadoes. 8/18
After outlooks, Mesoscale Discussions (MDs), another SPC product, provide discussions of severe weather hazards for focused areas. These can be "meso-alpha" and highlight a broad region for potential tornado/severe watch issuance, "meso-beta" and highlight a particular storm, or both. 7/18
Further, forecaster intention in outlining CIGs need to be properly communicated - which as @ethanburwell.bsky.social highlights, was not the case on March 6th. We do not yet have a good grasp on perceptions of and reactions to CIG areas or the ways that they may be misinterpreted! 6/18
The impact of CIG inclusion in low hazard likelihood areas is not clear, but for higher likelihood forecasts, increased levels of CIG increase concern and likelihood of response for members of the public - and more importantly emergency managers (repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/70...) 5/18
In their initial 600z outlook for March 6th, the SPC included a CIG1 area (Max expected EF2+ tornadoes) across southern MI, this area was removed in the 1200z update and not added back thereafter. No mesoscale discussion or watch products were issued for the area before or during the tornadoes. 4/18
Second, this event occurred days after the SPC, who issue tornado watches, debuted their new Conditional Intensity forecast, which allows forecasters to highlight where severe weather may not be likely, but could be significantly severe. More details here: www.facebook.com/share/v/1B34... 3/18
