Kind of an amazing chart. Hard to tell any coherent story about the results based on 'culture', income, development level
If there's an explanatory variable (or two), I'd love to see it
The Chinese Personal Income Tax Rate is a one-way bet
bsky.app/profile/nosu...
I coined this term 5 years ago when Chinese real estate market started collapsing -- that China was entering its "Just Another EM" era: it now faced tradeoffs between rising taxes and economic growth
Rhodium agrees
x.com/nosunkcosts/...
Great @rhg.com piece on the Fiscal Revenue challenges facing China
- Fiscal revenue grew less than 1% last year after declining in 2024
- The total Deficit is ~10% of GDP vs. NGDP growth of ~4%
- The largest increase in deficits over the last few years has been due to collapsing Land Sales
China Internet Index is at its Liberation Day Lows
The total collapse is somewhat astonishing in both absolute and relative terms -- every other broad Chinese index is up ~18 to 35%
EM ex China is up 58%
China is the anti-AI trade apparently
BofA saying payroll growth accelerating
How to lose money in megacaps
Snookering an “ally” into an unnecessary offensive war is probably not the way to regain public opinion
Translated: “We are going to buy them out of Ch. 11”
bsky.app/profile/carl...
Jettisoning perhaps his only non-psychopathic instinct from his first term — getting into actual fights is harder than talking shit — is going to be an interesting experiment for him
Dubai is the real-life Mos Eisley Cantina
x.com/nosunkcosts/...
It has been a bleak year, but there is joy to be found in the world -- for example, the whole internet has come together in delirious schadenfreude at the fate of Dubai
Also filmmakers need to stop explaining their movies on podcasts - be like Kubrick, create and then disappear. The ambiguity of the ending was one of its stronger features but apparently he’s just a #girldad
pca.st/episode/4373...
I did like the subversion of the traditional sports drama so that by the end you’re actually rooting *against* the supposed protagonist
I admired the filmmaking and it’s undeniably an enjoyable experience, but I think all of Safdie’s stuff is heavily internet influenced — it’s a collection of long form short form videos with characters’ “realism” so heightened that it’s assuringly unrealistic
EU banking sector trades at 1.3x P/B
It hasn't traded below 1x since mid 2025
They are ~12% below US banks
Margins are too high, too many players are making excess returns
Surprising that more Fintechs aren't trying to go after every European bank revenue stream
For anyone who has followed European & Italian banking, this is just such an incredible outcome -- I think 5 years ago 0 people would have predicted that Monte dei Paschi would be absurdly profitable and swimming in excess capital
Makes me think European banking is too profitable right now
I think a SpaceX IPO and index inclusion at the stated valuation will do permanent damage to the reputation of indexing and passive investing generally
bsky.app/profile/cono...
Quite the divergence between different Chinese equity indices
It’s heartening to see a company demonstrate principles — and stick by them in the face of threats.
www.anthropic.com/news/stateme...
Disengagement: if you don’t do it, you’re what’s for dinner
bsky.app/profile/raph...
$NFLX going to buy them out of Ch. 11
China has had zero EPS growth over the last decade -- compare to India and the US, which have both increased >100%
Every year, people hope for EPS growth, and by year-end, their hopes are dashed
(ht @volgajam.bsky.social for the correction)
Time to find out
Update - it was, in fact, over
