John Polga-Hecimovich 🧉

EXCLUSIVE: Venezuela After Maduro. The Long Shadow of the White House. | Wyoming Star On January 3, 2026, the White House released a gallery of photographs under the blunt title: Operation Absolute Resolve. In the images, US special ... read at Wyoming Star. Stay informed with expert i...

🇺🇸🇻🇪Learn more about the political and economic state of Venezuela after Maduro's abduction in the latest Wyoming Star piece with @crisisgroup.org's Phillip Gunson, @jpolga.bsky.social, and analyst Tom Kloza.

wyomingstarnews.org/2026/02/18/e...

#Venezuela #USA #politics #economy #analytics

(PDF) Latin America. Between Governability Crises and the Impeachment Trap PDF | Impeachment has become more prevalent across Latin America in recent years. This chapter maps the evolution and use of impeachment as a... | Find, read and cite all the research you need on Rese...

As Jeri falls, it is clear that Peru is ensconced in an "impeachment trap" from which it cannot escape: www.researchgate.net/publication/...

I wrote here about why the Peruvian legislature keeps doing this:
www.gisreportsonline.com/r/peru-presi...

I wanted to make a thread about the useful analyses coming out about the situation in Venezuela, but there is a lot, and everyday new things come out.

It may be more useful to share some of the existing analysis of how we got here. Books in no particular order and on various themes/issues...

🧵

*All* exciting chapters!!!!

In Venezuela, the US has removed a dictator, but shows little sign of building a democracy | USAPP While Maduro has been removed, Venezuela remains a dictatorship, and one that is unlikely to transition to a democracy without specific US interventions.

I wrote about what political science research suggests about democracy building in Venezuela after the way Nicolás Maduro was removed:
blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/20...

We'll see what comes of María Corina Machado's meeting today with Trump-

In Venezuela, the US has removed a dictator, but shows little sign of building a democracy | USAPP While Maduro has been removed, Venezuela remains a dictatorship, and one that is unlikely to transition to a democracy without specific US interventions.

In Venezuela, the US has removed a dictator, but shows little sign of building a democracy writes @jpolga.bsky.social of the U.S. Naval Academy blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/20...

John Polga-Hecimovich, analista especializado en el poder chavista: "Delcy Rodríguez gobierna entre Washington y el núcleo duro del chavismo" El mundo mira con atención a lo que sucede en Caracas tras la detención de Nicolás Maduro. El académico norteamericano John Polga-Hecimovich es uno de los analistas con más conocimiento del régimen ch...

@jpolga.bsky.social: "Delcy Rodríguez gobierna entre Washington y el núcleo duro del chavismo" agendapublica.es/noticia/2054...

I'm trying to stay off social media!!!!!! But I really appreciate the shout-out, Kai.

Six books to read about Venezuela They explain the country’s slide from democracy to dictatorship

Delighted to see The Economist list 'Authoritarian Consolidation in Times of Crisis' as one of "six books to read about Venezuela"

Our volume available here and other places: www.routledge.com/Authoritaria...

www.economist.com/culture/2026...

I’m pleased to share my new publication with Javier Rodríguez-Sandoval in the Revista Uruguaya de Ciencia Política: “Las elecciones presidenciales de Ecuador 2025: ¿Realineamiento y bipartidismo sin partidos?”

Full-text available here: revistasfcs.edu.uy/index.php/ru...

Pedro Mattey / AFP / Getty

🇺🇸🇻🇪As the US-Venezuela relations crisis continues, Wyoming Star explores potential military confrontation with @jpolga.bsky.social, IBI Consultants' Douglas Farah, and FIU's Brian Fonseca.

Learn more: wyomingstarnews.org/2025/11/03/e...

#USA #Venezuela #politics #analytics #military #crime

Read John Polga-Hecimovich's "Transnational Organized Crime and the Venezuelan State" in the new issue of
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, now available to read via @projectmuse.bsky.social

muse.jhu.edu/article/965801

Organized crime and security in Latin America – GIS Reports Transnational crime in Latin America is growing across the region, posing a challenge to democracies.

New piece out for GIS:

Organized crime is evolving—and spreading—across Latin America, infiltrating not just streets, but states.

🇸🇻 Mano dura may win votes.
⚖️ But real security needs justice, reform & regional coordination.

Read here 👉 www.gisreportsonline.com/r/organized-...

Still, there are solutions—but they aren’t easy. To tackle TOC, states need:

✅ Political will
✅ State capacity
✅ International coordination

Unfortunately, Venezuela has almost none of these under its current government...

This creates a vicious cycle:
💸 The regime depends on illicit revenue.
🔫 It uses TCOs as security proxies.
🛑 It resists cooperation with other states.

Result? Efforts to fight crime can undermine regime survival, meaning real reform is unlikely without regime change.

Why would a government allow this? Because, under Maduro, the state needs organized crime. Drug trafficking, illegal gold mining, and criminal alliances fund the regime and bolster its coercive power.

This is state capture in reverse: the state as a criminal group.

In the article, I make four core arguments:
1️⃣ Venezuela protects foreign TCOs like the ELN and ex-FARC.
2️⃣ It helped grow Tren de Aragua from a prison gang to a megabanda.
3️⃣ It exported that gang across Latin America.
4️⃣ The state itself operates as a criminal enterprise.

Organized crime in Latin America isn’t just a story of weak states—it’s often a story of complicit states.

Nowhere is this clearer than in Venezuela, where the state does more than tolerate criminal groups: it protects, fosters, and even acts as one.

New article out now in the Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, "Transnational Organized Crime and the Venezuelan State".

📰 muse.jhu.edu/article/965801
📄 DOI: doi.org/10.1353/gia....

In it, I examine the relationship between, well, transnational crime and the Venezuelan state under Maduro.

🇻🇪 En #MiradaSemanal examinamos el contexto de la elección regional y la consolidación autoritaria en #Venezuela.

🎙️ Para esta edición entrevistamos a @jpolga.bsky.social y Raúl Sanchez Urribarri en compañía de Manuel Alcántara, @maripuerta.com y la conducción de Xavier Rodríguez Franco.

Join us tomorrow for a Roundtable to discuss our book: “Authoritarian Consolidation in Times of Crisis: Venezuela under Nicolás Maduro” edited by @jpolga.bsky.social & Raúl Sánchez #LASA2025

Latin America between China and the U.S. – GIS Reports Central and South America with the Caribbean face growing geopolitical pressure as Washington and Beijing compete for dominance south of the U.S. border.

I wrote about Trump Administration rhetoric & policy in Latin America, and how Latin American states are being pushed to pick between the U.S. and China.

www.gisreportsonline.com/r/latam-betw...

👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

Today I got my copy of Authoritarian Consolidation in Times of Crisis, edited by @jpolga.bsky.social and Raúl Sánchez Urribarrí.

A nice present in troubled times.

Thanks to the editors for their amazing work and to @benedictebull.bsky.social and Manuel Sutherland for awesome team effort.

Víctor Mijares
@maripuerta.com
@nosumacero.bsky.social
@antuliorosales.bsky.social
Francisco Sánchez
Isabel Rowan Scarpino
@orcunselcuk.bsky.social
@dsmilde.bsky.social
Manuel Sutherland
@svitalem.bsky.social
Verónica Zubillaga

Our amazing contributors include:
@adriboersner.bsky.social
@benedictebull.bsky.social
Victoria Capriles
Marsílea Gombata
Rosa Amelia González
@beccahanson.bsky.social
@pablohernandezb.bsky.social
Charles Larratt-Smith
@daniel-leon87.bsky.social
Miguel Ángel Martínez Meucci
Michael McCarthy

The book examines and develops the concept of authoritarian consolidation and then applies it to Maduro's Venezuela. Together with our contributors, we suggest a multicausal explanation for the consolidation of authoritarianism, with each chapter devoted to one of these plausible explanations.

Authoritarian Consolidation in Times of Crisis: Venezuela under Nicolás Maduro Bringing together experts from across the social sciences, this volume examines the consolidation of authoritarianism in Venezuela under the government of Nicolás Maduro. Taking a comparative perspect...

I'm delighted that Authoritarian Consolidation in Times of Crisis: Venezuela under Nicolás Maduro, the book I co-edited with Raúl Sánchez Urribarrí, has officially been published!

It is available at in paperback, hardcover and eBook almost everywhere. See: www.routledge.com/Authoritaria...

Raúl and I are thankful to so many people who made this possible, including Iñaki Sagarzazu, with whom we initially conceived of this project way back in 2016.

Thank you, Heather, great work on your piece!