Natural gas supply shocks have stagflationary effects in the €zone. A 10% increase in gas prices raises core prices by ~0.5% and reduces economic activity. Gas shocks pass through to core prices more strongly than oil shocks, due to role of gas in European electricity production
It was an exceptional week in oil market:
This new QJE paper concludes that the macroeconomic costs of climate change are far greater than earlier estimates suggested. It finds that a 1°C rise in global temperatures reduces world GDP by over 20%.
Tuotannon (arvonlisäyksen) osalta hyvässä kasvussa 2025 olivat alkutuotanto 3,8 %, teollisuus 1,6 %, info ja viestintä 5 %, ammatillinen ym ala 1,3 %, mutta laskussa rakentaminen -1,5 % kauppa -1 %, kuljetus -3,2 % ja rahoitusala -3 %.
Jalostus (B-F) +0,9 %, palvelut -0,1 %.
Takeaway: high energy prices harm the low-income households more than previously thought, and relief programs should target them. /5
Paper: aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Ungated version: tinyurl.com/2s4f7fee
Euro zone business activity improved in February as manufacturing bounced back, PMI shows reut.rs/4kIAYmW
Today’s CBO report says US consumers pay 95% of tariffs. 🤡
@brendanvduke.bsky.social
www.cbo.gov/system/files...
Euroalueen BKT:n kasvu viime vuoden lopulla hieman odotuksia parempi, kasvua 0,3% edellisestä neljänneksestä. Myös Suomi pääsemässä kasvuun kiinni🤞
ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/...
Japan's bond market looking a tiny bit more like everyone else's, which might create problems for everyone else, as well as for the government...
By @urbandirt.bsky.social @davidkeo.bsky.social + me
www.ft.com/content/e2ae...
Luontokato yhdessä ilmastonmuutoksen ja äärisääilmiöiden kanssa vaikuttaa inflaatioon ja rahapolitiikan välittymiseen, ja on siksi keskuspankeille tärkeä aihe.
Lue Seija Parviaisen analyysi:https://www.eurojatalous.fi/fi/2026/artikkelit/luontokato-tuli-keskuspankkeihin-ja-rahapolitiikan-analyysiin/
”If the court sided with the administration’s view that the president could determine cause alone without judicial oversight, any president would be able to make up any cause to get rid of governors, removing the effective Fed independence that Congress had wanted when it wrote the Fed Reserve Act.”
Seija Parviainen selittää huolellisesti artikkelissaan, kuinka luontokato on tullun mukaan rahapolitiikan analyysiin: www.eurojatalous.fi/fi/2026/arti...
”..Every boring, senseless rule was written in blood once. The same is true for the institutions of America’s money. They were all designed, one after the other, after something exciting happened. There is so much more than just inflation to worry about.”
www.ft.com/content/ace5...
”Everyone thinks we’re in crazyville and no one thinks there’s anything to the charges.”
www.ft.com/content/9b2f...
”We stand in full solidarity with the Federal Reserve System and its Chair Jerome H. Powell.”
”Chair Powell has served with integrity, focused on his mandate and an unwavering commitment to the public interest.”
🇪🇺🇬🇧🇸🇪🇩🇰🇨🇭🇦🇺🇨🇦🇰🇷🇧🇷
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/dat...
The ECB and other European and international central banks stand in full solidarity with the Federal Reserve System and its Chair Jerome H. Powell.
The independence of central banks is in the interest of the people we serve.
””Fragmented” national legal rules “continue to make it complex and costly to establish and operate companies across the EU, with no progress to date”
www.ft.com/content/fbc7...
Extraordinary statement from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Explicitly calling out intimidation from the Trump administration, and in the process setting the bar for independence for his successor.
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
"Tutkimus osoittaa, että säteily on vaikuttanut selvästi ylioppilaskirjoitusten tuloksiin henkilöillä, jotka saivat Suomen mittakaavassa runsaan säteilyaltistuksen sikiöaikana."
yle.fi/a/74-20199158
#Tšernobyl #vaikutusarvio #kausaalipäättely
"Swapping American dominance of the western hemisphere for Chinese dominance of east Asia would be the deal of the century. For China."
@gideonrachman.bsky.social on the wild scenes of the Donroe Doctrine: as.ft.com/r/3d92b5c5-3...
Painavaa pohdintaa raha- ja poliittisen liiton toiminnasta ja tulevaisuudesta: publications.bof.fi/handle/10024...
US AI investment boom shows no signs of slowing.
”The integration of national markets remains elusive in services, is incomplete in goods, and is in many ways going backwards rather than progressing.”
www.ft.com/content/0ee6...
FT taustoittaa (tai mielipiteistää) viime viikolla julkistetun SIU-paketin [aka / ex CMU] tavoitteita ja kipukohtia.
Our new @piie.com Working Paper on Russia’s war-induced regional convergence with @eribakova.bsky.social & @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social now out! @bofit.suomenpankki.fi @suomenpankki.fi
Many poorer regions saw their incomes rise faster 2022-24 as public spending rose🇷🇺
www.piie.com/publications...
Three-year temperature average set to exceed 1.5C for first time on.ft.com/3MnJ8nQ
”Suggesting that most Europeans want peace even if it means surrendering to Vladimir Putin, and asserting that their governments are standing in the way, the strategy calls for a rapid end to the war in order to prevent escalation.”
www.economist.com/united-state...
