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22.10.2025 15:40
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Secure your spot & visit our exhibition: energytradingweek.com/etwa25-world...
Improve your weather-based trading via a discussion with the World Climate Service team at next week’s Energy Trading Week Americas in Houston. We’ll be exhibiting at ETWA October 29-30. Secure your spot & visit our exhibition: energytradingweek.com/etwa25-world...
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Quite cold - comparable to 2014 for the lower 48 overall if ECMWF is to be believed
Quote from the US #natgas market:
“Forecasts are for a warm Feb. BUT - of the seven >1000 GWHDD Januarys since 1990, all but one were followed by a colder than normal Feb"
It's true: a warm Feb would be unusual after such a cold Jan. But subseasonal models are pointing that way
“Every foot of reduced water depth equates to 7,000 fewer soybean bushels per barge,” says Mike Steenhoek. Inspired by this, we analyzed 20 years of data and found surprising nuances: high water levels have an even greater impact on efficiency! Read more: www.cropprophet.com/how-mississi... 🌊🌾
🌽Over the previous 30 days in Argentina, it has been substantially dry. The Argentina #corn and #soybeans production weighted precipitation has been 74% and 72% of normal, respectively, over the past 30 days. 🌽
#oatt #agwx
From December 28, 2024 EC46 forecast - it's rare to see such a strong probability signal for unusual cold in the mid-latitudes at week 3.
High (calibrated) probabilities require BOTH a strong ensemble signal and a good degree of model skill
Niño3.4 SSTs have risen back to the 1991-2020 normal, thanks to recent strong westerly wind anomalies over the eastern equatorial Pacific.
This is a pretty striking failure of the seasonal models, especially given their high skill scores for autumn-initialized ENSO forecasts.