Anton Barbashin

Masks off – Riddle Russia Nicholas Trickett with the economic summary of the week (March 2−6)

The potential extended interruption to energy transit through the Strait of Hormuz is already being spun by many as a loss for Ukraine and a potential opening for Russia. This assumption leaves much to be desired when examining precisely how Russia is supposed to benefit.
ridl.io/masks-off/

What is the future of Putin's "deathonomics" that has allowed Kremlin to keep the number of volunteers high, avoid mobilization and desensitize Russian society towards the war in Ukraine?
Thread 1/9

A Doubtful Guarantor – Riddle Russia Galiya Ibragimova on the decline of Russian paternalism in Central Asia

Central Asian nations relied on Russia to provide security and personal backing of the ruling autocrats.
Recent events prove that Russia no longer can do that.
ridl.io/a-doubtful-g...

Deathonomics 2.0: Why the System Is Starting to Stall – Riddle Russia Vladislav Inozemtsev on the challenges that «deathonomics» poses for modern Russia and how long the system can keep running without radical changes

"All of this might have laid the groundwork for an entirely new society — one that could serve as a solid foundation for an autarkic totalitarian regime lasting decades"
For more details read this essential Vladislav Inozemtsev piece for Riddle Russia
ridl.io/deathonomics...
9/9

It is unclear what would be chosen but we safely say that: «deathonomics» has given the Kremlin the ability to prolong the war without substantial internal resistance.
And create a global image of nation with "endless resources" and capacity to war indefinitely
8/9

So Putin is now left with to options:
First, to radically increase the payments to new volunteers to substantially boost the numbers of the willing to kill and die for money.
Or go for another round of mobilization that is a huge political risk
7/9

So the most evident problem now is that it costs way too much while not giving proper battlefield results.
This system was not designed to win the war - it was design to prevent the Russian society from carrying about the war enough to do something about it.
6/9

Since it was introduced the costs of maintaining deathonomics quadrupled. And the steady flow of new soldiers make Russian army continue to go with blunt tactics like "meat assaults" not carrying all that much about the lives of these soldiers.
5/9

This is a market driven system - attracting the unemployed, indebted, those without higher education or family obligation. Thus even huge numbers of casualties don't spark widespread protests - as it would have been with conscripts like the in case of Afghan war or Chechnya
4/9

the rest of his working life — in other words, a system that turns death into the single most economically efficient use of a human life".
Its core purpose remains the same - "it enables the Kremlin to avoid launching another wave of full-scale mobilization"
3/9

The term "deathonomics" was first coined by
Vladislav Inozemtsev on ridl.io in July of 2023.
Essentially, it is a "as a system in which a citizen who enlists, serves, and dies in the war brings his family more money than the average Russian would earn over
2/9

What is the future of Putin's "deathonomics" that has allowed Kremlin to keep the number of volunteers high, avoid mobilization and desensitize Russian society towards the war in Ukraine?
Thread 1/9

(Re)Building a Garrison State: Imagining Russia’s Economy Post-war – Riddle Russia Nicholas Trickett on embedded macroeconomic distortions and the illusion of wartime resilience

How did the war change Russian economy and what the end of the war would mean for Russia?
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social for Riddle Russia
ridl.io/re-building-...

How sanctions are depriving Russia of its shot at LNG global leadership – Riddle Russia Vakhtang Partsvania on why Russia

Interesting/informative. NB in light of (unconfirmed) report of RU in Med on fire: “RU lacks enough Arc7-class gas carriers to reliably serve even existing capacity, and dependence on foreign yards and equipment has become a critical bottleneck.”

ridl.io/how-sanction...

A Doubtful Guarantor – Riddle Russia Galiya Ibragimova on the decline of Russian paternalism in Central Asia

Central Asian nations relied on Russia to provide security and personal backing of the ruling autocrats.
Recent events prove that Russia no longer can do that.
ridl.io/a-doubtful-g...

How sanctions are depriving Russia of its shot at LNG global leadership – Riddle Russia Vakhtang Partsvania on why Russia

Russia is losing LNG not as an operating industry but as a development project. It may continue exporting gas in liquefied form, but it is no longer capable of building a credible strategy for world leadership around it.
#sanctions
ridl.io/how-sanction...

Санкции: кумулятивный эффект достигнут - Russia Talk S02E15 (Вахтанг Парцвания) YouTube video by Russia Talk

EU and US have been imposing sanctions against Russia for many years. For a long time it seemed that Russia was coping quite successfully with their negative consequences. What has changed recently? Why exactly now have sanctions started to noticeably hit the economy?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=og9M...

(Re)Building a Garrison State: Imagining Russia’s Economy Post-war – Riddle Russia Nicholas Trickett on embedded macroeconomic distortions and the illusion of wartime resilience

How did the war change Russian economy and what the end of the war would mean for Russia?
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social for Riddle Russia
ridl.io/re-building-...

A Doubtful Guarantor – Riddle Russia Galiya Ibragimova on the decline of Russian paternalism in Central Asia

If Moscow yet again does not come to the aid of Iran it would even further weaken its position in Central Asia

ridl.io/a-doubtful-g...

Damned Lies, Statistics, and Other Bitter Pills – Riddle Russia Nicholas Trickett with the economic summary of the week (February 23−27)

The «winners» of the war in Ukraine, particularly the managerial class and middlemen enriching themselves, are paid handsomely, while everyone else simply struggles to get by.
Thus more pro-war sentiments in Moscow. They are making money.
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/damned-lies-...

The Dark Enlightenment and the Return of Political Theology in Russia and the United States – Riddle Russia Maria Engström examines the Dark Enlightenment in Russia and the US: a philosophical doctrine that reintegrates metaphysical elements into political thought and promotes a new authoritarian world…

Dugin revealed that representatives of Thiel had met with him, and that Thiel had read Dugin’s "Foundations of Geopolitics."

Maria Engström for ridl
ridl.io/the-dark-enl...

False Start to Reconciliation – Riddle Russia Alexey Uvarov On the dynamics of Russia-Poland relations in the early 21st century

Here is a long take by @aivengo96.bsky.social for Riddle Russia on how Russia and Poland have approached historic reconciliation and why it failed.
Was it doomed from the start?
ridl.io/false-start-...

On the Death Zone and Other Metaphors – Riddle Russia Nicholas Trickett with the economic summary of the week (February 16−20)

"The Russian economic body began consuming itself in 2023, disguised by the nature of GDP accounting and uncritical acceptance of wage and income data"
What will that look like in the future?
ridl.io/on-the-death...

False Start to Reconciliation – Riddle Russia Alexey Uvarov On the dynamics of Russia-Poland relations in the early 21st century

Russia - Poland history is rough to say the least. The collapse of the Soviet Union created opportunities to heal at least some of the wounds.
Both Warsaw and Moscow genuinely worked towards that end but obviously it all exploded. Still, what lessons could be learned?
ridl.io/false-start-...

The Russian Question in «Alternative» – Riddle Russia Dmitry Stratievsky on how Alternative for Germany finds itself caught between the Kremlin and the White House

There are now factions in German far-right AfD that lobby for distancing from all the "Putin loving". There is a political calculus there. Also, the extensive support from Trump's administration makes it easier.
ridl.io/the-russian-...

The Russian Question in «Alternative» – Riddle Russia Dmitry Stratievsky on how Alternative for Germany finds itself caught between the Kremlin and the White House

There are now factions in German far-right AfD that lobby for distancing from all the "Putin loving". There is a political calculus there. Also, the extensive support from Trump's administration makes it easier.
ridl.io/the-russian-...

If "all Russians who pay taxes are criminals" then all nations that buy Russian products are criminals as well.
If it's about budget revenue (that funds the war), it is clearly not just the Russians.
Or maybe, criminals are the ones planning, supplying and executing the war?

On the Death Zone and Other Metaphors – Riddle Russia Nicholas Trickett with the economic summary of the week (February 16−20)

"The Russian economic body began consuming itself in 2023, disguised by the nature of GDP accounting and uncritical acceptance of wage and income data"
What will that look like in the future?
ridl.io/on-the-death...

False Start to Reconciliation – Riddle Russia Alexey Uvarov On the dynamics of Russia-Poland relations in the early 21st century

Russia - Poland history is rough to say the least. The collapse of the Soviet Union created opportunities to heal at least some of the wounds.
Both Warsaw and Moscow genuinely worked towards that end but obviously it all exploded. Still, what lessons could be learned?
ridl.io/false-start-...

False Start to Reconciliation – Riddle Russia Alexey Uvarov On the dynamics of Russia-Poland relations in the early 21st century

Here is a long take by @aivengo96.bsky.social for Riddle Russia on how Russia and Poland have approached historic reconciliation and why it failed.
Was it doomed from the start?
ridl.io/false-start-...