Caitlin Talmadge

Trump Says U.S. Navy Might Escort Tankers in Persian Gulf

Trump calls them escorts, Iran calls them targets.
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/w...

Trump Weighs Backing Militias to Dislodge Iran’s Regime The president, who hasn’t made a decision, also said “somebody from within” would be the best option to lead the country.

Siri, tell me what it looks like when you forgot to plan
www.wsj.com/world/middle...

France offers to deploy nuclear deterrent across Europe for first time President Emmanuel Macron lays out doctrine of ‘forward deterrence’

This article is good on some of the specifics and captures the dynamism of the present moment: www.ft.com/content/45d9...

Thanks, should have been more precise. I read French changes as signaling to Russia that it will have to more seriously take French nuclear weapons into account even if it does not attack French territory. There has always been a "European dimension" in Fr nuclear strategy but not like this.

Who can blame him

After the strike: The danger of war in Iran | Brookings Brookings experts break down what the war in Iran means and what's at stake internationally and domestically.

I learned a lot from my @brookings.edu colleagues here on the many implications of the Iran war. My own piece w/ O’Hanlon examines why the air campaign likely won’t produce democracy and stability.

www.brookings.edu/articles/aft...

May I humbly suggest we dial back the hyper-fixation on how long the administration says war will last. No one ever knows because war is unpredictable & adversary gets a vote. Where the administration should be hammered is on the incoherent explanation of why they started the war in the first place.

Macron opens door to deploying French nuclear forces to European allies The plan is a “major evolution” of France’s deterrence posture, the president said in a long-awaited speech at the Île Longue naval base in Brittany.

In any normal week this would be a huge story. France moves toward extending a nuclear umbrella over European allies-- a major sign of declining credibility of US extended deterrence.
www.defensenews.com/global/europ...

Keep hearing commentators/Hegseth saying a version of "this is not Iraq, we are not doing nation-building, it's a decapitation, the people will handle it."

That's what Iraq 2003 was supposed to be! Nation-building, de-Baathification, disbanding of Iraqi army, it all came *after* things went wrong.

Most of them children

Hegseth/Caine presser is long on description of exquisite operations and tactics but very short on how they will produce desired strategic and political outcomes.

Extraordinary moment in Hegseth/Caine presser just now-- Hegseth is asked about boots on the ground in Iran and does not rule it out.

I am so relieved Hegseth has reassured me this won’t be a quagmire!

I almost elaborated on this in the post, but it was getting too long! I think the key question is can US make continuing credible threats of coercion. That is the unstated US strategy against Venezuela, for example. I have more doubts about whether it will work here, or even in Venezuela long-term.

Trump’s Shifting Goals for Iran Complicate Military’s Mission President Trump and his allies offered at least two separate objectives Sunday for the assault on Iran, muddying U.S. intentions for ending a conflict that has killed three American servicemembers.

"It is possible that Trump’s military campaign doesn’t overthrow the regime & that his attempts at a deal similarly fail. In such a scenario, 'Trump could find himself with no regime change, no deal and no capacity to honor the promises he’s made to the Iranian people.'"
www.wsj.com/politics/nat...

Authoritarian politics 101. It is great to hope that the Iranian people "rise up." But keep in mind that they don't have guns, and authoritarian political systems are dominated by those who do. In Iran, that remains the IRGC and Basij.

U.S. troops killed amid Iranian counterattack, fueling air defense fears U.S. forces say they have hit 1,000 targets over the past two days in a race to take out Iran’s ability to threaten American personnel and allies across the Middle East.

"There is anxiety among senior leaders that fighting will extend for weeks, stressing limited U.S. air defense stockpiles. 'There is concern about this lasting more than a few days. I don’t think people have fully absorbed what that has done with stockpiles.'"
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

Trump releases video message on strikes against Iran | CNN In a video posted to Truth Social, President Donald Trump encouraged Iranians to seize control of their government when US military operations conclude. He also warned American lives may be lost as a ...

The notion that this is a war to "defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats" from Iran is simply fantastical. This is a straight-up preventive war a la Iraq 2003.
www.cnn.com/2026/02/28/u...

I will literally order a cake and crack open champagne if the Iranian regime falls, but then what? Lack of a clear answer to that question is why no US president has done what Trump is now doing.

media.defense.gov/2026/Feb/27/...

Disappointed and saddened by DOD decision to end decades of mutually beneficial collaboration between our nation's military officers & our civilian universities and think tanks. A loss for both communities with negative long-term implications for national security and civil-military relations.

Given constraints on munitions & logistics, I expected US to launch limited Iran campaign. Trump has instead announced most expansive goals imaginable: regime change, destruction of conventional military + end of nuclear ambitions. Unclear how US will square this circle.

U.S. Military in the Middle East: Numbers Behind Trump’s Threats Against Iran Eight months after Operation Midnight Hammer, the United States has again moved large air and naval forces to the Middle East. These can launch punitive strikes on Iran and protect U.S. allies and par...

Useful report here: U.S. has assembled significant air & naval power in the Mid East but still lacking logistics (and, I would add, munitions) for a truly extended campaign.

Doesn't mean US won't attack Iran but does suggest limited target set.
www.csis.org/analysis/us-...

The MadLib War

We might attack Iran because _________.

😱

Pentagon Flags Risks of a Major Operation Against Iran The warnings have been led by Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, within the Defense Department and during meetings of the National Security Council.

OK, but the risks of attacking Iran were all knowable before the massive forward deployment of US forces to the region.
This is a military buildup in search of a political and strategic rationale.
www.wsj.com/politics/nat...

Trump Considers Targeted Strike Against Iran, Followed by Larger Attack

Two snippets of good news: a diplomatic off-ramp is still under discussion, and Trump's advisors are emphasizing the risks and uncertainty involved in attacking Iran. As they should.
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/22/u...

Under Trump Pressure, Iran Finds Its Friends Are of Little Help China and Russia have forged closer ties with Tehran but have shown little willingness to provide military aid in a conflict with the U.S.

"Russian President Vladimir Putin isn’t likely to come to the aid of Khamenei if U.S. strikes appear on the verge of bringing him down."
No kidding! Ask Maduro or Assad.
Russia is not a reliable patron.
www.wsj.com/politics/nat...

US policy in a changing nuclear landscape | Brookings On February 27, join Brookings to examine the evolving nuclear threat environment and the policy choices confronting the United States.

Please join us @brookings.edu for an event on nuclear policy this Friday, online or in person!
www.brookings.edu/events/us-po...

It looks like The Shining out there.