This strategy worked okay in 2024.
But the majority gained was extremely fragile leaving little room for any more shedding of votes.
In just one constituency, Gorton & Denton shows the risk for Labour of simultaneously losing progressives, Muslims and 'Red Wall' style voters.
But this by-election is about Labour.
The political strategy of Starmerism/McSweeneyism has been a willingness to shed some voters (progressives and Muslims) in the pursuit of other voters (Middle England and Red Wall.)
The Tories and Lib Dems were always going to be squeezed in this by-election but I also think this reinforces their need for a clearer national message as to why voters should back them in seats they can't win - i.e. one which goes beyond we can beat Reform/Labour.
For Reform, this reinforces that if they're seen as extreme they risk not only losing votes but motivating the coalescing and turnout of voters opposed to them.
Think selecting Goodwin in a seat with a high Muslim population is this 'seesaw' in operation.
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Labour is clearly continuing to shed Muslim voters despite the salience of Gaza falling slightly post-ceasefire.
This breakdown in support among one of their historical core bases is about more than just Gaza - like the Red Wall's collapse was about more than just Brexit.
For two years my colleagues have been arguing that Labour's collapse in support among British Muslim voters is about more than just Gaza, it's about a feeling of being taken for granted for too long.
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This has important implications for analysing May's Council election results - we should expect the Greens to do well but given how low turnout is likely to be, even if they do slightly underperform expectations, it doesn't mean their uptick in support isn't real.
The Greens were clear winners.
Some have argued poor council by-election showings suggest their uptick in the polls isn't real.
But think their surge on an above GE turnout reinforces our data which suggests they do best among low propensity voters.
Gorton and Denton serves as a microcosm of Labour's fragmenting electoral base with young progressives, Muslim voters and 'Red Wall' style voters abandoning them in one constituency 🧵
But the political link is strong.
A majority of reality TV watching Green voters think BAME contestants are treated less favourably by fellow cast members.
But Reform voters believe BAME contestants are actually treated *more* favourably than white contestants.
It's a similar story for reality TV more broadly.
Only 26% of reality TV watchers think ethnic minority contestants are treated less favourably by their fellow cast members and just 22% say the same for audience members voting in public votes.
Views correlate with politics - two fifths of Tory & Reform voting Traitors viewers say BAME contestants aren't more likely to be voted off early.
In contrast - two fifths of Green voting viewers think the early banishments are due to unconscious bias.
A third (36%) outright reject the view that BAME contestants are more likely to be voted off with another fifth (19%) acknowledging the pattern but saying it is not due to unconscious bias.
Only 30% say unconscious bias is leading to early banishments of BAME contestants.
It's Traitors final day - so some new polling!
There's been a lot of discourse over the fact that ethnic minority (BAME) contestants are more likely to be banished earlier in the show.
But most Traitors viewers do *not* think unconscious bias is affecting outcomes 🧵
FWIW our January MRP has the seat as essentially a three-way battle between Labour, Reform and the Greens.
Though pre-coalition the Liberal Democrats had historical strength in the constituency so will be interesting to see if they roll out the by-election machine...
If the writ is moved soon we'd expect the by-election to be held just as the formal devolved and local election campaigns kick off.
Can see why Labour are keen to have the by-election held on the same day as local elections but that does create a long by-election campaign...
We've written a lot about how Labour's vote is fracturing in three directions:
- Progressives to LD/Green
- 'Red-Wally' to Reform
- Muslims to 'Gaza Independents'
Think Gorton represents a microcosm of all three dynamics and a by-election will put this under a magnifying glass.
If this does proceed to a by-election, think it could be one of the messiest in history:
Not only the Burnham factor but also at the GE:
- Reform performed in line with their national share
- A strong Green showing
- Workers Party won 10% of the vote in this 30% Muslim seat 1/3
As we've outlined before, the lack of a Green uptick in support at council by-elections may not be an indicator of polling errors but rather the much lower propensity of their coalition to vote - which will harm them in lower turnout council by-elections.
In a ward with a decent student population, where they finished second last time, you might hope for a better result for Greens than this.
Still not seeing much of a Green surge in local council by-elections yet, but... 1/2
If you haven’t done so already, have a go at our super short quiz to see what segment you are in our new model.
The segments capture worldviews really powerfully so it’s illuminating to see how your values differ from other Britons.
(A prize if you can guess my segment!)
Could going hard on environmental issues help the Liberal Democrats retain the Blue Wall at the next election?
Our new report, based on one of the most in-depth analyses of Lib Dem voter attitudes to the environment, suggests it could.
A🧵of the key charts 👇🏼
Thanks Dave - there's lots more detail and insights in the actual report if you have a chance to read that!
Yes this really came out in the focus groups - the actual report goes into much more depth on this!
There's much more analysis in the full report so please do read it and let me know your thoughts👇🏼
t.co/vmNHsMdeEB
The conjoint experiment found increasing awareness of Lib Dems environmental policies could be a significantly stronger driver of votes to the party than their more prominent anti-President Trump positioning.
This is the case for existing Lib Dem voters and voters as a whole.
To robustly assess the potential electoral benefits of bold environmental positioning for the Liberal Democrats - we ran a policy conjoint experiment, comparing it with other potential dividing lines for the party with Labour.
Both of these policies garnered strong support in our focus group conversations.
Our Liberal Democrat voters, particularly in North Cornwall, held deep anger towards water companies' perceived profiteering. They were also perplexed as to why so few homes had solar panels.
Two clear winners emerged:
1)Protecting the Water Restoration Fund so water company fines are ringfenced for nature improvements.
2)Tightening the Future Homes Standard so solar panels and heat pumps are mandated on new build homes.
